Fact's about why HL2 won't be out on april..

[Blair]

Condition Zero is planned (By EB games, like thats reliable) for release by March 25. Why would they plan to sell CZ on the older HL engine when the very next month they're supposed to be releasing HL2. Vivendi is in this for sales figures, it doesn't make very good marketing to over shadow one of your own products in projected sales...


After the "leak" everything has been quiet. Not a single shred of new info except for two ingame shots, and one concept art. Even the old bink movies have been taken off of steam, for what reason?.. It's human nature to brag about something you're proud of, or atleast so excitment about advances you've made. Now either Valve isn't proud of their work (unlikely), or there really isn't anything to be excited about yet... With the supposed release only 3 months away, I would think that things would start popping up, offical box art, offical website, model renders, movies, trailers, screens...


It's my guess that it definatly won't be out for April, but more likely Sept of 2004, or.. I don't even think saying late as Dec. of 2004 is really out of the question.



I really don't care anymore frankly.. There are so many other great titles coming out of the next few months that no one is really going to notice HL2 is missing... I'm just trying to show some of you 'die hards' that your visions of playing HL2 in april are clouded.

 

[dawdler]

And your vision about it being late is clouded if you ignore the information given...

 

[Shuzer]

Condition Zero is off the radar, though. It wasn't mentioned in latest VUGames' financial report (which HL2 was ). No one really knows where it is, and if it's not out before April, I doubt we'll ever be seeing CZ.

 

[Blair]

What information!!!! There is no INFORMATION!!!!

Prove my facts wrong.. Even take an educated guess. I would like to know your thoughts about my first point.. Would you sell an old product, then the very next month sell the one product that will change the face of your industry forever? NOO!

It's just not done!

 

[PvtRyan]

Wow you're really a pessimist, not in the way of 'the glass is half-empty' but in the way of 'OMFG, the f*cking glas is almost f*cking empty!'
I'd like to see your 'facts' about why YOU think it's gonna be Q4 2004 at its earliest.
Because there is simply no reason for that.

After the "leak" everything has been quiet. Not a single shred of new info except for two ingame shots, and one concept art. Even the old bink movies have been taken off of steam, for what reason?.. It's human nature to brag about something you're proud of, or atleast so excitment about advances you've made. Now either Valve isn't proud of their work (unlikely), or there really isn't anything to be excited about yet... With the supposed release only 3 months away, I would think that things would start popping up, offical box art, offical website, model renders, movies, trailers, screens...

Having big marketing and commercials and advertising was never Valves way of doing PR. We've clearly noticed that the last 6 years. The way they promote their games is via the community, and if you paid attention the last week, you must have seen the info stream from Valve is on a peak since the leak stuff.
And don't know how much indirect evidence you need, but stuff like 'as we approach the release of HL2' and 'the SDK should be released in the coming weeks' MUST mean something, and certainly not that it comes out Q4 2004. No they'll make Q2 2004 (march-june)

Don't be such a pessimist, it's bad for you.

 

[niddhoggr]

Here's my theory:

When it goes gold, I'll listen to release dates.

 

[mrchimp]

I think CZ is going to be ported onto the source engine and hopefully badger will ask that question this saturday.

 

[alco]

I, for one, don't believe they'd release the game that long after they release the SDK.

 

[The Terminator]

Hey, I say SDK within a week or two, and HL2 a month after the SDK realse, Thats my guess.

 

[Dougy]

Hey, I say SDK within a week or two, and HL2 a month after the SDK realse, Thats my guess.

agrees.


and can i just say that there is not 1 Fact in the 1st post.

its just complete speculation by a pessimist.

the average pessimist lives for 5 years less than the average optimist.

 

[Mr. Redundant]

wow... that last sentence "I'm just trying to show some of you 'die hards' that your visions of playing HL2 in april are clouded."

totally reminded me of the whole september delay fiasco...

and for those who remember... SteelHead... or something (was that his name?)

 

[Blair]

agrees.


and can i just say that there is not 1 Fact in the 1st post.

its just complete speculation by a pessimist.

the average pessimist lives for 5 years less than the average optimist.

Is that so?....


Well, since you do have facts to support your agreement. Then by all means link them for all of us to see..


It's a fact that CZ must come out before HL2 in order for Vivendi to make money on it. It's idiotic to imagine it any other way, no one will want to play crappy CZ when they could have HL2.

It's also a fact that no new information has been shown, no new screens, movies, renders. No offical website, box art, or trailers. Unless of course Valve is going to wait untill the last minute to do these things half assed and in a hurry. (Which is completely opposite of what they stand for)



I'll give you a break this time, perhaps June '04 is a more acceptable date at the earliest.

 

[DiSTuRbEd]

Fragmaster? I think so.

 

[Blair]

Oh ya..

Fact number three!!

Valve never said anything about April being the release date, this was all adopted by 3rd party sites and ebgames. Gabe, nor any member of the Valve team has ever said anything other then "we'll see", in response to questions about april being the date of release. That's the same exact response that was said when the release date was Sept of '03.

Give me a direct link to any member of Valve's team saying directly that it will be released during April..!! I dare you to find that!

 

[[daniom]]

It's idiotic to imagine it any other way, no one will want to play crappy CZ when they could have HL2.

I think those who dont have such a good PC to run HL2, will play CZ...

 

[Shuzer]

Bah. I don't believe CZ will ever see the light of day (on the HL engine, anyway).

I actually had pre-ordered CZ for my brother in March 2002 for his birthday, it was due out a few months after his birthday. It's almost March 2004, and it's nowhere near the same high quality game it was to be (Gearbox had such a cool vision for CZ ), and it's completely dropped off the radar. It went "gold," what, 3 months ago?

 

[Fender357]

.. It's human nature to brag about something you're proud of,

Its also human nature to keep secrets....

 

[Jackal hit]

i think a fact of a FAIRLY soon HL2 release is the soon to be released SDK... since you're hardup on being so "factual." btw, i don't think april is some fabricated community or website whatever 3rd party release month. isn't it what vivendi said?

 

[Sorze]

you should all check this out:

http://www.halflife2.net/forums/showthread.php?t=17248

My first thread... :bounce:


I´m telling you.... April is the month... pretty pleeaassee valve.....

Btw, you (some people) actually think the SDK might be released in 1-2 weeks ??
I´ll be happy if that happens, but Valve actually releasing something will feel weird, it´s usually always just waiting around for them to release something...

 

[Sprafa]

Vivendi rules VALVe so if they say April, it's April.
And CZ isn't on the financial VU 2004 yearly report because it'll come out before it begins - April 1st

 

[Pi Mu Rho]

Maybe I should rename this thread to "Opinions and utter speculation about why HL2 might not be out in April"

 

[Kadayi]

Maybe I should rename this thread to "Opinions and utter speculation about why HL2 might not be out in April"

LOL, a good idea :cheers:

 

[kaf11]

With the supposed release only 3 months away, I would think that things would start popping up, offical box art, offical website, model renders, movies, trailers, screens...
ok, well youre making this sound like its some typical gaming company. valve is not typical, in the best of ways. think about it, HL2 was in double secret production for nearly 5 years. thats just crazy. all it took to whip up some hype was a few screenshots and videos. they dont need to do this stuff for months before release. they could probably go gold one month, then release the next. its just up to them when they want to do this.

 

[DiSTuRbEd]

The Box art is probably done for the boxes, but they probably don't want to show it off yet, sorta like not releasing screenshots. I bet most of the stuff like manuel, the stuff ontop of the cds are already made too, just waiting for disks. I mean they probably have had the stuff done for a bit, just don't want to release any pics of it.

 

[Blair]

they dont need to do this stuff for months before release. they could probably go gold one month, then release the next. its just up to them when they want to do this.

With only three month's untill mid April, I think that's a few months away to atleast have something thats offical out there.


Ebgames has Doom III's release date as July '04. Which is most likely wrong, but let's say it's July or Aug..

Now Valve and Vivendi both know that Doom III is their big contender, and Vivendi is going to want and hurt their sales. Which, by that conclusion would have HL2 out during Aug-Sept '04 in order to compete with Id on the gamers market.

This is just educated guessing about modern day sales techniques.


The link with the report on Vivendi list of upcoming games really doesn't matter.. Vivendi can say all they want when HL2 is coming out, but it's really up to Valve to have the product ready by then. If they're not ready, the the publisher would have to release later. Vivendi did the same thing with the Sept '03 release date, if you remeber correctly Vivendi stood by their claim that it was going to release on that date, but ultimately Valve didn't have HL2 anywhere near ready so the publisher had to set another estimated date.

That's all Vivendi does, they work out an estimated date with Valve about when the expected devolpment will be finnished, it's not cast in stone. Most of the time these date's are set well into the future, but Vivendi is anxious to get HL2 out and get the money flowing, so they have a reputation of setting the dates too early, thus having to constantly reschedule.

 

[Dougy]

Now Valve and Vivendi both know that Doom III is their big contender, and Vivendi is going to want and hurt their sales. Which, by that conclusion would have HL2 out during Aug-Sept '04 in order to compete with Id on the gamers market.

This is just educated guessing about modern day sales techniques.

What planet do you live on?

That makes NO sence at all, What company on earth releases their product at the same time as a competitiors? No company thats the answer.



All that would happen in that scenario is Both games would suffer sales drops.

aghhhhhh.... your post is so wrong im lost for words that dont include calling you a fool.

If HL2 releases April then all the HL2 fans will buy it and the Bored D3 fans will buy it oo since their games months off.

just dont bother replying to this unless your going to say you were drunk and made a realy stupid post like the one im qouting..... ahhhhhhgggg


*smacks head off keyboard then runs away screaming*

EDIT: seriously i feel the need to tell you this again, the most ive ever meant ever on the net, your theory is WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG.

notice how nobody else in the thread supports your theory?

 

[Blair]

notice how nobody else in the thread supports your theory?

That's because they want my statements to be false so badly, but yet they know it may be true.



And it's your theroy which is wrong..

You're the CEO of a well respected company, you have a new product in the works which will redefine your market. However, one of your rival companies is also producing a similar product to counter yours.

Now, would you release yours early? Getting alot of sales, but not really hurting the other company in returns when they release their product months down the road.. Meanwhile your product is out there, people find the flaws, become bored, the other company listens to what happens and decides on some last minute changes to further improve theirs.

Now, the other company finally release's their new and improved product, saying it can do all the things that yours does, only better, faster, and more efficently. Now, they will almost double sales simply because they used you as a way to test the market and see what the reaction was. More people will want the improved version, and sales of your product will slowly fade away since it will seem inferior to your rivals.




Release product's within a short amount of time, and people/rival companies won't have a chance to differ on them. Both sales will be equal depending on which one has more PR, and sales will generally last longer in this scenario.

 

[Neutrino]

That's because they want my statements to be false so badly, but yet they know it may be true.

And it's your theroy which is wrong..

You're the CEO of a well respected company, you have a new product in the works which will redefine your market. However, one of your rival companies is also producing a similar product to counter yours.

Now, would you release yours early? Getting alot of sales, but not really hurting the other company in returns when they release their product months down the road.. Meanwhile your product is out there, people find the flaws, become bored, the other company listens to what happens and decides on some last minute changes

That's just dumb.

 

[Blair]

That's just dumb.

Thanks for explaining why you disagree, the depth of your post is very informative.

 

[Epsi]

It's just generally, it takes ages and ages and ages to redo bits of a game, which is why you usually have a turnaround time on imitators. Like you get a good management game, and year or so later a cheap knockoff turns up on the shelves. Realistically, if HL2 kicks so much ass that it can be considered game of the century, iD are going to release exactly the same product, just because they're unlikely to spend the time and money re-making doom 3 into a hl2 clone.

 

[Dougy]

Thanks for explaining why you disagree, the depth of your post is very informative.

what else needs to be said?

The poor guy doesnt want to post a thousand words explaining why if you were in charge of a buisness you would be broke within a week.


Get ANY buisnessman in here and i bet £500 that he rips your *same release date intentionaly* theory to pieces.


you have absolutely no clue whatsover about buisness, becuase if you didn you would be quiet.

"That's because they want my statements to be false so badly, but yet they know it may be true."

1. once again thats just your theory
2. wheres your proof of this
3. there not agreeing with you becuase they have common sence not becuase of fear or whatever BS. you come up with next.


Before you post a whole paragraph of complete nonsence (again) Please start your post with your age and buisness experience.

if your over 18 ill laugh my cock off.


EDIT: i looked at your profile and your like 21 *falls of seat luaghing his cock off, rolling around floor still laughing...... this may take a while*

 

[Neutrino]

Thanks for explaining why you disagree, the depth of your post is very informative.

Your welcome. Glad I could help.

 

[Blair]

what else needs to be said?

The poor guy doesnt want to post a thousand words explaining why if you were in charge of a buisness you would be broke within a week.


Get ANY buisnessman in here and i bet £500 that he rips your *same release date intentionaly* theory to pieces.


you have absolutely no clue whatsover about buisness, becuase if you didn you would be quiet.

"That's because they want my statements to be false so badly, but yet they know it may be true."

1. once again thats just your theory
2. wheres your proof of this
3. there not agreeing with you becuase they have common sence not becuase of fear or whatever BS. you come up with next.


Before you post a whole paragraph of complete nonsence (again) Please start your post with your age and buisness experience.

if your over 18 ill laugh my cock off.


EDIT: i looked at your profile and your like 21 *falls of seat luaghing his cock off, rolling around floor still laughing...... this may take a while*

Age is no factor, whether younger or older. Theres no need to bring age into the discussion merely to provoke an insulting contest. And what type of work are you in to claim you know how the marketing and sales industry works?


I worked in marketing for AT&T, and currently have a position in insurance sales for the torchmark corporation. So I think I would have an edge on the situation.

 

[MadMechwarrior]

Blair: Companies are on this planet to make money, they couldnt care less about hurting their competition. Not only that the games industry is similar to the movie industry... you dont sign up to a movie like you do with AT&T... if there is a good movie, you watch it, if there are 2 good movies, you watch em both, because they both kick ass. Releasing HL2 at the same time as DOOM 3 would just be retarded. People who might not have enough cash for both will only buy one (could be either) and then they come back to get the second when the prices go down and its not worth as much. If valve released early, they make their cash while the wallets are still full and they couldnt care less what doom 3 does in the next few months. The games industry isnt a competitive market, except with MMORPGs, where you DO sign up.

Now settled down...

 

[alco]

the average pessimist lives for 5 years less than the average optimist.

Yeah, but those last years suck anyways.

 

[perrkele]

Btw Blair, it was actually Valve who insisted that the game will be out on the 30th, not Vivendi. Vivendi had said already in July (or was it August) that the game is delayed and won't be released in September. Valve then kept denying this and said that they are still trying to get it out on the 30th.

Ok, so it was delayed. Doug Lombardi of Valve then said that they are aiming for a holiday release, while the Vivendi guys started to say that "no it won't be out on holidays either, but in April instead."
Boom, holidays gone too, and no HL2. So if I had to pick my date, I'd go with the one that Vivendi is telling us. Although, as you said, if Valve doesn't have the product ready by then, there's not much Vivendi can do. But so far Vivendi has been giving a LOT more accurate information about HL2 so saying that you shouldn't believe them is a bit odd, IMO.

 

[Blair]

Btw Blair, it was actually Valve who insisted that the game will be out on the 30th, not Vivendi. Vivendi had said already in July (or was it August) that the game is delayed and won't be released in September. Valve then kept denying this and said that they are still trying to get it out on the 30th.

Ok, so it was delayed. Doug Lombardi of Valve then said that they are aiming for a holiday release, while the Vivendi guys started to say that "no it won't be out on holidays either, but in April instead."
Boom, holidays gone too, and no HL2. So if I had to pick my date, I'd go with the one that Vivendi is telling us. Although, as you said, if Valve doesn't have the product ready by then, there's not much Vivendi can do. But so far Vivendi has been giving a LOT more accurate information about HL2 so saying that you shouldn't believe them is a bit odd, IMO.

Finally!! Thank you.


It's nice to have someone actually take the time and respond with a thought out answer, rather then immediately deny it because I don't agree with their views.




And in response about companies making money..

Yes, game companies are in it to make money, but part of making money is knocking out or tieing your competition.

 

[Striker]

How about we just wait till it comes out? Valve allready knows its going to make alot of money from HL2, so they dont realy give a SH*T when its released.

 

[Sorze]

Yes, game companies are in it to make money, but part of making money is knocking out or tieing your competition.

Blair, I can see your reasoning, but I don't really think that's how companys work. If Valve/Vivendi can release HL2 in april, and make a ton of money, they won't care how well or bad Doom3 does. They've done what they set out to do, make a game, make money.

And why are you not counting being first as a good thing? Innovations usually make people curious, and a lot of people don't want to wait around for a really good game, if another really good game is already out.

But games aren't that expensive, and most people that likes the kind of games that HL2 and Doom3 are, will quite likely buy both, if there's enough time inbetween, so they don't have a cashflow problem.
If the customers are forced to choose, sales will go down for both games.

I can't see a company delaying their finished product, just to hurt someone elses sales, because ultimately it will hurt their own sales as well.

(stuff in italics is the most important...)


Edit: btw Blair, I'm glad to see you keep your cool, even though some responses weren't that good or friendly...

 

[Dougy]

Age is no factor, whether younger or older. Theres no need to bring age into the discussion merely to provoke an insulting contest. And what type of work are you in to claim you know how the marketing and sales industry works?


I worked in marketing for AT&T, and currently have a position in insurance sales for the torchmark corporation. So I think I would have an edge on the situation.

*finishes rolling around pissing himself luaghing*


Im 18 and have has extensive experience helping my father run the family computing buisness.

Since you have not procduced any "facts" to support your theory (wich is a complete joke) im going to go ahead and say your theory is way wrong.




"Yes, game companies are in it to make money, but part of making money is knocking out or tieing your competition."

Yes, and the only way to do that is to release your product wich is equaly (or better) as good as the competitors before they do.

the games industry is far different from normal ones like DVD's and telivisions Cars etc.


Valve/Vivendi will want to release in April so that All the HL2 fans will buy it as well as casual gamers and the bored D3 fans will also buy it.

if they release in august along with D3 then they will loose sales since only Hl2 fans will buy it and half of the casual gamers, with the other half plus D3 fans buying D3.


Even D3 would want a Hl2 april release, the Hl2 fans and casual gamers and the original D3 fans will then pick up D3 in august becuase theyve gotten bored of Hl2 or just want something fresh.