Sprafa's (random updated) article thread [POLITICAL]

Sprafa

Sprafa

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1st update. Yet another article from Fareed Zakaria.

What Bush and Kerry Missed
The West has long taken Asia for granted, seeing it as a stage where Great Power rivalries could be played out. But this too will change

The presidential debates are lauded for having been substantive and revealing. In particular, people have noted how rare it is to have a serious discussion about foreign policy these days. Except that we did not have a serious discussion about foreign policy. We had one about Iraq. And thousands of miles away, there is a new world coming into being—one that America is quite unprepared to handle.

There have been two great shifts in the international balance of power over the past 500 years. The first was the rise of Western Europe, which by the late 17th century had become the richest, most dynamic and expansionist part of the globe. The second was the rise of the United States of America, which between the Civil War and World War I became the single most important country in the world. Right now a trend of equal magnitude is taking place—the rise of Asia, led by China, which will fundamentally reshape the international landscape in the next few decades. For America, whether it is preserving jobs or security, recognizing and adapting to this new world order is key.

China's rise is no longer a matter of the future. It is already the fourth largest economy in the world, and it is growing at three to four times the rate of the first three. It is now the world's largest importer and exporter of many commodities, manufactured products and agricultural goods. It will soon be one of the largest exporters of capital, buying companies across the globe.

India is growing with impressive resilience and determination. And because of its size, it adds another huge weight to the Asian balance. East Asia has now been in a long boom for over 30 years. Asians are also the world's biggest savers, and their savings have financed the deficit spending of the United States. While there may be temporary reversals for a year or two, the long-term trend is clear.

Take an important example: one of the reasons that the United States has been able to dominate the global economy has been its awesome lead in science and technology. But here too, Asia is gaining strength. From computer science to biotechnology, one can see the beginnings of Asian science. It's at a very early stage, but again, the arrow is moving in only one direction. Physical Review, a top science journal, notes that the number of papers it publishes by Americans has been falling dramatically, from 61 percent in 1983 to 29 percent last year. The journal's editor told The New York Times that the main reason was China, which now submits 1,000 papers a year.

With economic growth comes cultural confidence and political assertiveness. The West has long taken Asia for granted, seeing it as an investment opportunity or a stage where Great Power rivalries could be played out, as in Vietnam and Korea. But this too will change. China and India are both proud and ancient civilizations. They are also large internal economies, not totally dependent on exports to the West. (In the wake of the East Asian crisis of 1997, all the East Asian tiger economies collapsed. But China and India grew solidly even when demand from the West dried up.) This rise of confidence is just beginning—it's clearly visible in trade negotiations‹and will only grow with time.

The United States will remain the most powerful country in the world. But the gap between it and these new Great Powers will slowly shrink. And to continue thriving, it will have to adjust to the rise of Asia. Asians should also hope that America focuses on this new world, because only the United States can ensure that Asia's rise happens in a way that is beneficial to both Asia and the world. Otherwise, the challenge from Asia could easily produce a retreat into fear, protectionism and nationalism all around.

In his novel "Cakes and Ale," Somerset Maugham derided the celebrated American expatriate Henry James for focusing his writings on upper-class life in Europe in the early 20th century. Maugham complained that James had "turned his back on one of the great events of the world's history, the rise of the United States, in order to report tittle-tattle at tea parties in English country houses."

The analogy is not exact. The war on terror is crucial, winning in Iraq is necessary, Middle East peace is important. But I wonder whether as we furiously debate these matters in America, we resemble Englishmen in the waning days of the British Empire. They vigorously debated the political and military situation in remote areas, such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan (some things don't change). They tried mightily, and at great cost, to stabilize disorderly parts of the globe. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the United States of America was building its vast economic, technological and cultural might, which would soon dominate the world.
 
Ah much cleaner, and much better. Good onya m8.

As for the updated article. Very scary when you think about it. (well at least from my POV, considering that i'm American.) I'll be happy if we can get off half as easy as the brits. They are still a strong player.

What we would like to forget however, is how much we rely not only on foriegn oils, but on foreign cheap made goods and labor. With a "new china" in place, and an independence from american consumers we will be forced to pay higher prices and our inflation will rise and our wages will remain the same until our ship sinks.

However, maybe, just maybe, the actions we are taking in the middle east right now. (come on, face it, the middle east controls the largest percentage of the worlds oil reserves.) Maybe the measures we are taking right now are to secure a firm grasp upon the oil, thus giving us the upper hand on the growing asian economy.

If we control the oil, we control the productivity in a sense. Oil isn't only used to get cars with workers back and forth to work you know. Take into consideration, trucks that ship goods from point to point, oil made energy that powers entire areas, machines to produce manufactured goods, etc. etc. If we can gain the upper hand in oil then in a sense we will keep the economic game in a stale mate.

However, while on our misadventures in the mid east, we gorget that asia is building itself stronger, while we are weakining our defenses. What scares me most, is asia vs. usa in an all out royal rumble over the oil supplies. Throw a few middle eastern countries into the mix, and a few western allies for good measure and you have the ingredients for ww3 knocking on our door.

In time, we will see. For now, buy all the damn water, canned food and duct tape you can, just in case. :)
 
Damn the plague of the double post. please forgive me.
 
Just report your own double posts. Mods take care of it.
 
If you want to make your own blog, then make one like Icarus. I can tell that this is just going to become your own private little thread that you keep updating, bumping, if you prefer that term.
 
ahh good link timmy, and funny picture rkef.
Seinfeld, dude, just let him have this thread, you don't have to read it.
 
Sparta said:
what the hell ends november 2nd?
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The U.S. presidential election of 2004 is scheduled to occur on Election Day, Tuesday, November 2, 2004.
 
Oh ok.

Since you brought it up, i'm curious.

Why does an intelligent portuguese man like yourself, Sprafa, care so much about the U.S presidential election?
 
Sparta said:
Oh ok.

Since you brought it up, i'm curious.

Why does an intelligent portuguese man like yourself, Sprafa, care so much about the U.S presidential election?
Click to expand...

Because it'll decide my future. I've talked about this. If Bush wins and ****s up, the USA will be scrapped off the map.
 
Because it'll decide my future. I've talked about this. If Bush wins and ****s up, the USA will be scrapped off the map.
Click to expand...

No it wont. You really have no idea what you are talking about.
 
The US are the most influencial country in the world, Sparta, as you probably know :) the result of who one is getting elected affects the happening in the whole world. Or at least great parts of it.
 
Good. Can I vote on who will become into Canada's next prime ministry?

I mean, after all. I have to deal with Canadians, and they do influence my opinions. Course, I guess this means I can vote for the next German Chancellorey aswell, because in my opinion, Stoebbels a prick.

...but I guess this means I could vote for changes in Portugal too. :D

But it really is fun to know where that influential. As if these other countries have no backbone. :D
 
I did'nt hit a nerve, did I? :D I probably misspelled the name, but its all in the namesake of causing controversy. To be honest, I dont even know his policies. Alls I know, is that a UK Church? published this small magazine predicting he would become the next Hitler.

Meh...
 
I know you're making fun of me... :) but I dont really think too many people here will laugh about it... :) so...
 
...actually, second reply, I dont see anything remotely that addresses you specifically. I just remarked Stoebel was a prick, and than later posted I judged that info based on what I collected from a UK Church magazine.

...and your insulted where?
 
Looked like you were doing that pissing-ze-german-off-with-ignorance-regarding-real-facts thing ... :)
 
You forget, (if you ever knew), I'm German also. I used to live near Wiesbaden. ...is that airforce base still their? I kinda lived out in the boonies of the place...
 
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