A Sound HL2 Release Estimate

Kouler

Kouler

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OK guys, some of you may have seen me mention that I was doing some calculations on a possible release date.
I will explain it to you all.

Valve has said a while ago, that "it will have zero bugs in 16 days" and "we're aiming for July 30th RC". Assuming that the RC would make it in straight away, that leaves us to the gold date - the 5th of August.
We then wait 2 - 4 weeks for the release.
We come to the conclusion of 19th of August to 4th of September.

Therefore.

Half-Life 2 is supposedly coming out from

19th of August
to
4th of September

Anyone else have any other ideas?
 
The game won't go gold on August 5th. That's when the first RC will be sent to Vivendi. The RC stage can last weeks.

We'll see it between the 23rd September and 31st December.
 
Chris_D said:
The game won't go gold on August 5th. That's when the first RC will be sent to Vivendi. The RC stage can last weeks.

We'll see it between the 23rd September and 31st December.
Click to expand...
Oh come on Chris_D, you have to have hope!
 
I don't yhink it will be released after X-mas, they would lose alot of money that way. But in the middle of December though...
 
i wouldn't be supprised if they held it back for xmas, just to crush wotever hopes we might still have :/
 
I'm hoping that the VU stage doesn't take that long. Since VALVe has spent so much time hammering out the bugs, I doubt that VU will be able to come up with many things that need fixing (or at least that's what I hope :))
 
Well, to be realisitc I'd say (1st sept - 1st Novermber)
 
I'd say as early as August 24th to September 21st at latest.

BigNamek...
 
Chris_D said:
The game won't go gold on August 5th. That's when the first RC will be sent to Vivendi. The RC stage can last weeks.

We'll see it between the 23rd September and 31st December.
Click to expand...

Yep, I reckon round about the same! Release candidates can often go through several stages! Vivendi will more than likely rebuff the first RC given to them...they are bound to find something they are not happy with - maybe it wont be bugs but features? Condition Zero was (Allegedly) rejected several times by Vivendi because of localization and language problems.

It's a game of bat n ball at the end of the day. Obviously, I think Valve are probably a bit more stringent on their own quality standards than most developers. So maybe 2 RC's and the game will sent for duplication. I hope!

I reckon more like first week in October - November.
 
I doubt they will hold it back more than a year past the original release date. That would still allow enough time for the first RC to fail VU's inspection and for Valve to submit a second RC that is good enough... but I think Valve has higher standards than VU, so it will probably go through on the first try. Keep in mind Condition Zero wasn't made by Valve... Turtle Rock Studios is to blame.
 
i wont surprised if something goes wrong again...like another theft tbh (now stop swearing and shouting at the monitor, i cant hear you). u have to be realistic like chris_d said. dont kid yourself with talk from gabe and valve. do we actually know if the initial theft was real and not just some lame cover up?? was it on the news?? what evidence do we have: someone's word...ahem.

they said mid summer 'roughly', so they're gonna do what all new games do: set a release date, then add 2/3 weeks extra for 'shipping problems' or something stupid like that.

and another thing, dont be surprised if it doesnt get released this year, i certainly wont...all i can say is that the release date can never come soon enough....
 
Pureball said:
u have to be realistic like chris_d said. dont kid yourself with talk from gabe and valve. do we actually know if the initial theft was real and not just some lame cover up?? was it on the news??
Click to expand...

Uh....It was on the news..There have been a couple of news reports from USA Newspapers and i think one or two from CNN Money about it. The theft was real, quite real. but it wasn't the reason for the delay, as Valve have said. They were just too optimistic

As for it coming out sometime in August, thats very optimistic, but anything could happen. Valve are fixing all the bugs and they are sending out the RC on July 30th was it? It can still happen, but September is a more realistic date for sure
 
I would expect an August Gone Gold date....since Halflife was originally released off the first release candidate....and they work hard at hammering out the bugs
 
Frosty207 said:
I'm hoping that the VU stage doesn't take that long. Since VALVe has spent so much time hammering out the bugs, I doubt that VU will be able to come up with many things that need fixing (or at least that's what I hope :))
Click to expand...


Fu!ck VU, Just Release it on STEAM>!
 
since they said the cs source beta was a little test for the source engine, and its comeing out on the 10th of august, we have to allow at least a month (thats a very low estimate) for testing of the engine on all the participants of the beta. That means the games RC wont be ready until at the earliest mid september, but more likely early october.
With these projections in mind, and the production time of 3-4 weeks normally, I would say the game is mostly likely to be in our grubby mitts sometime in the month of december.
 
Kouler said:
Valve has said a while ago, that "it will have zero bugs in 16 days" and "we're aiming for July 30th RC". Assuming that the RC would make it in straight away, that leaves us to the gold date - the 5th of August.
We then wait 2 - 4 weeks for the release.
We come to the conclusion of 19th of August to 4th of September.

Anyone else have any other ideas?
Click to expand...

That's kinda a perfect situation though, and we know Valve haven't had the best luck with things going according to plan. As Chris_D said...have to be realistic.

The bugs: that's only if they continue to kill and find a specific amount per day. It's an average based on how things have gone thus far. But there is nothing that says a load of bugs wouldn't pop up delaying that time period. I doubt they'd find any show stoppers at this point, but that, too, is possible.

RC date: if the 16 days of bugs date is correct, than July 30 would be impossible to make I believe. Wasn't that said (the 16 days of bugs) said only this past week? Whereas the "aiming for July 30th for the first RC" was said a while back? So, seems like that July 30th date has changed a little bit since the 16 days left of bug killing runs into August at this point. At the very least that puts the first RC into the first week of August.

RC in general: as others have said...could be more than one (and Gabe himself said it's almost always more than one) and we don't know exactly what they will be doing and how long it could take for VU to test them. What if it's 4-7 days per RC to test? And what if there are 3 RC's before one is accepted? Neither seem unrealistic considering the size and complexity of the game. So that alone could add 2-3 weeks...or more.

And we still don't know what's going to happen with the test of CS:source. If it's truly a test of the Source engine (which I do believe Gabe said somewhere), and it's shipping with HL2...what if there are problems with it? It would mean both CS:source AND HL2 may have to be fixed in some way.

I think, trying to be realistic, if all goes WELL an early date for gold would be late August early September at best. And perhaps in our hands by mid to late September or into October.

On the high end...could be any date as we just don't know what problems they may run into. Bugs, RC's being rejected, CS:Source problems...and anything else we don't see behind the scenes.

You just never know. I can live with late Sept...it's not that far away after waiting this past year :)

It's getting closer, but maybe not close enough to start counting individual days, maybe months and weeks, but not days...yet.
 
Chris_D said:
The game won't go gold on August 5th. That's when the first RC will be sent to Vivendi. The RC stage can last weeks.

We'll see it between the 23rd September and 31st December.
Click to expand...
he said 'Assuming that the RC would make it in straight away'
 
well it may've been on cnn etc in usa, but here in the uk, i dont remember even hearing about it on bbc let alone there being a full on report about it.
 
mutt said:
he said 'Assuming that the RC would make it in straight away'
Click to expand...
Yeah but the RC isn't happening until roughly the 5th August. Gabe said the game will be bug free in 16 days - that only means that they're happy to release it, which means they'll produce a release candidate. Vivendi have got to be happy with that release candidate before it goes gold, and that isn't happening within the next two weeks.
 
I am now thinking it will be closer than you think. I think they had all the cd-art, box art, & manuals done for a while now. I give them more time than usual to find bugs and in all reality I think they could have this game ready a week or two after doom3 ships.

There is a lot of money to be made for putting it as close to doom3 as possible. It sounds old an repetitive but it's true.

What the hell do I know. Maybe they will encounter a bug that makes the game crash every time you try to finish it. Maybe an Asteroid will plummet from space then smash through the Gold Copy & the computers it was stored on.
 
BigJack said:
since they said the cs source beta was a little test for the source engine, and its comeing out on the 10th of august, we have to allow at least a month (thats a very low estimate) for testing of the engine on all the participants of the beta. That means the games RC wont be ready until at the earliest mid september, but more likely early october.
With these projections in mind, and the production time of 3-4 weeks normally, I would say the game is mostly likely to be in our grubby mitts sometime in the month of december.
Click to expand...
The test is only going to last two weeks from when it starts for CZ users, as stated by Valve.
 
I hope they dont do a microsoft and release it and wait for the bug reports to flood back so they can fix it. Although minor bugs in games will be easier to fix on pc than a console (in fact it'd be possible :p).

I'd prefer the complete game later to a semi-complete game now.
 
I'm definately sure HL2 won't be delayed till next year as many think - I mean in sept 2003 we were in the dark - no gold announcements, no cd art to be seen, no "feature complete" assurances, no playtests, no proper benchmarks from third party (only from valve themselves).

Also, a game like HL2 would have been asked for a earlier review by some mag as it was easily the hottest thing of 2003 - almost everyone was in the dark.

But now things look much brighter - we have a proper assurance, people getting playtests, various things revealed, a proper gold date estimate too. Hl2 will release this year,for sure. It doesn't matter how late though, but earlier is better.
 
Exactly, lans. We may not have much to go on better than Valve's word--so much for that last year--but this time we have promising signs (externally verified, like the playtests) as well as signs of promises (the "16 days" comment) instead of a blackout. So even if these 16 days become 32, I'll chalk that up to general wishful estimation on Gabe's part. A last week of August or first week of September gold-date seems likely to me. If an RC is announced around the 5th, I'd say a gold-date by the end of the CS:S Beta is near certain. On the other hand, if the 5th and 10th pass by with no RC or beta, I won't know what to think.
 
What was wrong with that 'guess Gabe's weight' thread? Is this board run by the Karma Police? :hmph:
 
Mr Neutron said:
What was wrong with that 'guess Gabe's weight' thread? Is this board run by the Karma Police? :hmph:
Click to expand...

It would end up being a flame-fest with personal insults
 
Headwires said:
i wouldn't be supprised if they held it back for xmas, just to crush wotever hopes we might still have :/
Click to expand...
Yes. Valve would want to torment the gaming community rather than give their finished product to the world and earn back the money they've spent on making the game. Why, my dear fellow I feel sure you've knocked the heads of many nails.

Mr Neutron said:
What was wrong with that 'guess Gabe's weight' thread? Is this board run by the Karma Police?
Click to expand...
Seriously, comments like that ought to be a bannable offence.
 
Mr Neutron said:
What was wrong with that 'guess Gabe's weight' thread? Is this board run by the Karma Police? :hmph:
Click to expand...
It's disrespectful, that's why.
 
Chris_D said:
No, you have to be realistic!
Click to expand...

Yeah and you don't have to exaggerate.

the RC process will take weeks, which is probably about 1-1½ month. I go for 14th September or later. But before 28th September.

And where did you get that 5th august date?
 
I dont want it to overlap with doom3's release, that would suck.
 
FISKER_Q said:
Yeah and you don't have to exaggerate.

the RC process will take weeks, which is probably about 1-1½ month. I go for 14th September or later. But before 28th September.

And where did you get that 5th august date?
Click to expand...
The 5th August date comes from the Gabe e-mail where he said "bug free in 16 days". I'm saying dates that go into October and beyond due to the fact that they're now aiming for an Autumn release.
 
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