China GDP to overtake USA in 2020s

kirovman

kirovman

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We already heard in recent news that consumption in China is greatest out of all the world's countries in Grain, Coal, Meat, Steel, only being behind the USA in terms of oil consumption.
Not necessarily a good thing, especially environmentally speaking.

Well I realise that these sources are the mouth piece of the Chinese communist party, but they are an interesting read, and I suspect holds a lot of truth, about China's economic rise:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-02/09/content_416043.htm

Also about China becoming a moderately developed country:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-02/19/content_417495.htm

Top investment destination:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-09/23/content_377209.htm

Also, lots of articles on "changing China" on the BBC website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/4274681.stm

With a highly paced GDP, ever increasing, and foreign investment higher than it has ever been, no wonder many tip this century to be the Century of China. China has been the richest and most prosperous nation for centuries, only stagnating after their people became complacent about it, and were left behind in the industrial revolutions, and foreign imperialism.

I have been to China on 3 consectutive years, and witnessing the change every year is breathtaking, watching the skyline rocket up and development is everywhere.
It is pretty scary actually, witnessing an almost certain superpower emerging- they are very nationalistic. I hope they will be a peaceful nation in the future, and I hope Gordon Brown's prediction, that this is an opportunity, not a threat, holds true.

And finally, just shows how you don't necessarily need democracy to build a nation - a very good example. I believe that democracy would have hindered them, they would have had less focus. Although I do not condone communism or authoritarian rule though.
 
China's future is still very uncertian. I'd hope that they can continue their progress and become economically stable, but I know there is a lot of doubt in the economics world if that will ever really happen. I don't fully understand all the factors, but I do know that China's economic position is a lot more complex then this purportes it, and there even has been some fears about economic collapse in the last few years.
 
If China was to become a complete democracy...I can most likely see them over taking us in terms of GDP and maybe military also.
 
Actually witnessing firsthand will give you a good picture.

And the CCP are very smart. If you watch what they are doing in all the politics. The leaders have even resorted to the kissing babies and spending the spring festival days (like christmas for us) with poor farmers or HIV infected people, to get some good PR.
They'd need to get an absolute lemon in as the next president to mess it up.

I heard reports about the economy overheating last year, but they "successfully took it off the boil" so to speak.

I believe democracy will come as everything stagnates (maybe as late as next century), and people demand more.

But now, people are happy and are highly supportive of their government, as well as optimistic.
If you keep people happy, well fed, they will not risk revolution to get democracy. That's where the CCP are smart.
 
Good. The wealthier the people are, the faster will they learn not to tolerate a dictator. I belive that China have turned into a democracy before the end of the next decade.
 
The reason they are doing so well is because they are moving toward a more democratic society. When Clinton was in office he did a lot to open trading with China and in exchange China allowed a lot more freedoms to their people. It seems the more democratic they get the better as a country they do. I don't really see China as a threat but they do need to be watched; there is no dount in my mind they will be similar to the US economically in the distant future (but not extremely distant).
 
No Limit said:
The reason they are doing so well is because they are moving toward a more democratic society. When Clinton was in office he did a lot to open trading with China and in exchange China allowed a lot more freedoms to their people. It seems the more democratic they get the better as a country they do. I don't really see China as a threat but they do need to be watched; there is no dount in my mind they will be similar to the US economically in the distant future (but not extremely distant).
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Depends what you mean by "getting more democratic". In terms of granting citizens votes, there's no progress being made there.
You only get a voice if you're a good citizen and get into the ranks of the chinese communist party (which is the largest political party in the world).
You are pretty much free to do what you want, it feels more free than the UK to me (if you have money), as long as you don't threaten the CCP's power in any way.

In Hong Kong, they even said that the people are not ready for proper democracy in 2008 (even though they have been voting under British rule), despite a promise to the British that they would. The only elections allow the people to choose 49% of the government, the rest is chosen by Beijing.

China is definately not communist though, the only thing communist about it is the leading party's name.

I heard Hu Jintao said something about directing China towards a socialist democracy with chinese characteristics.
But the CCP aren't going to relinquish their hold on power anytime soon.
 
No Limit said:
The reason they are doing so well is because they are moving toward a more democratic society. When Clinton was in office he did a lot to open trading with China and in exchange China allowed a lot more freedoms to their people. It seems the more democratic they get the better as a country they do. I don't really see China as a threat but they do need to be watched; there is no dount in my mind they will be similar to the US economically in the distant future (but not extremely distant).
Click to expand...

so your saying the better a country is (democratically), the more threat from them?

please tell me if i am wrong. :devil:
 
kirovman said:
Depends what you mean by "getting more democratic". In terms of granting citizens votes, there's no progress being made there.
You only get a voice if you're a good citizen and get into the ranks of the chinese communist party (which is the largest political party in the world).
You are pretty much free to do what you want, it feels more free than the UK to me (if you have money), as long as you don't threaten the CCP's power in any way.

In Hong Kong, they even said that the people are not ready for proper democracy in 2008 (even though they have been voting under British rule), despite a promise to the British that they would. The only elections allow the people to choose 49% of the government, the rest is chosen by Beijing.

China is definately not communist though, the only thing communist about it is the leading party's name.

I heard Hu Jintao said something about directing China towards a socialist democracy with chinese characteristics.
But the CCP aren't going to relinquish their hold on power anytime soon.
Click to expand...

I simply meant as far as human rights and freedoms go China has been improving over the last decade. And the more progress they make the better they seem to be doing. I agree with you that they still have a long ways to go.
 
Eventually, things are going to come to a head. There's only so many natural resources on this planet. Once we begin to tap out those resources, basic survival mode will kick in but on a global scale. Do you think China or the US would be willing to share with the rest of the world in that kind of situation? Some stuff will have to be taken by the use of force. Our over-consumption will come back to bite us in the ass eventually.
 
satch919 said:
Eventually, things are going to come to a head. There's only so many natural resources on this planet. Once we begin to tap out those resources, basic survival mode will kick in but on a global scale. Do you think China or the US would be willing to share with the rest of the world in that kind of situation? Some stuff will have to be taken by the use of force. Our over-consumption will come back to bite us in the ass eventually.
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Well not unless we can get hydrogen power out there.

Hydrohgen is so abundent we wouldn't need to fight at all.
 
Tr0n said:
Well not unless we can get hydrogen power out there.

Hydrohgen is so abundent we wouldn't need to fight at all.
Click to expand...

And how do you plan to produce the hydrogen?

OT: On the one hand, I can see China getting really big as a positive, but on the other hand, it's very oil dependent it seems and an ecological disaster.
 
PvtRyan said:
Sure, but you still need energy to break up the water, and I doubt the solar power solution can meet de demands. Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energysource.
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True, but it doesn't take as much energy, time, and effort to produce it.

You don't need to drill two mile holes or build huge oil rigs.
 
Tr0n said:
True, but it doesn't take as much energy, time, and effort to produce it.

You don't need to drill two mile holes or build huge oil rigs.
Click to expand...

But we would still need that oil to make the hydrogen ;)

Nuclear fusion combined with hydrogen for vehicles and solar/wind power for small stuff would be perfect imo.
 
PvtRyan said:
But we would still need that oil to make the hydrogen ;)

Nuclear fusion combined with hydrogen for vehicles and solar/wind power for small stuff would be perfect imo.
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Yea I could see that happening.

The big companies could still make money off it so in the end everyone is happy.
 
When they do overtake us, lets just hope they don't want retribution for all the slave labor we made them perform for us.
 
Innervision961 said:
When they do overtake us, lets just hope they don't want retribution for all the slave labor we made them perform for us.
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I'll have an underground bunker by then...so no worries.
 
Hopefully this will help usher in quicker reforms.

There's also the issue of division. Obviously big industrial cities are going to be economic hubs, but outside of that, there's huge poverty in (pretty well sized for us, but considered "small" to Chinese standards of a city) other villages and towns.

If the economy can balance out and move progressively away from communism to a free market and free political rights, it'll be great.
 
As long as Wal-mart and other huge corporations outsource their production to China, and continue to be allowed to dominate the market, more and more stores that buy US made products will be shut out. US jobs are lost while Chinese jobs flourish. It's the fault of big business and the ignorance of the average american consumer.
 
kmack said:
As long as Wal-mart and other huge corporations outsource their production to China, and continue to be allowed to dominate the market, more and more stores that buy US made products will be shut out. US jobs are lost while Chinese jobs flourish. It's the fault of big business and the ignorance of the average american consumer.
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Tell me about it, the factory I work at is actually closing down some machines we run and sending them to china, I'm affraid they are going to eventually send it all over there.
 
Outsourcing is good for the economy in the long run because of comparative advantage.
 
Bodacious said:
Outsourcing is good for the economy in the long run because of comparative advantage.
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BULLSHIT! What if your job had been outsourced? These jerkoff companies don't want to pay people decent wages so that the CEOs and managers can make tons of money. Its about the all mighty dollar, not about improving the economy. If these dumbass politicians had balanced the budget and the economy, we wouldn't be in this position. Americans need jobs, not some guy over in India. Shouldn't we come first?
 
satch919 said:
BULLSHIT! What if your job had been outsourced? These jerkoff companies don't want to pay people decent wages so that the CEOs and managers can make tons of money. Its about the all mighty dollar, not about improving the economy. If these dumbass politicians had balanced the budget and the economy, we wouldn't be in this position. Americans need jobs, not some guy over in India. Shouldn't we come first?
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Source?

Do you even know what comparative advantage is?


If my job was outsourced I would find another one. If I had to retrain I would do that, too.

Educate yourself on some economics before you come back in here spewing garbage.
 
Bodacious said:
Source?

Do you even know what comparative advantage is?


If my job was outsourced I would find another one. If I had to retrain I would do that, too.

Educate yourself on some economics before you come back in here spewing garbage.
Click to expand...

I have a little knowledge on the subject. Comparative advantage, to my understanding, is when we can produce some sort of product at a smaller price than some other country and they, in turn, can also manufacture some product cheaper than we can. Then, if we trade, we have the possibility of both getting a large profit.

That sounds all well and good but I'm not so sure its working nowadays. America has been shipping all its industry overseas. What do we manufacture? What resource do we have in large quantities that other nations need? Money. We generate a lot of money. We also import a lot of our goods. Now with Bush's cut on farming, we will have even less product to export. Our shirts and pants are made in Mexico, China, Taiwan, etc. Our quality cars are made in Japan and Germany(Europe). We import a lot of our fossil fuels.

If we don't have any products to export, how can we continue this comparative advantage theory? It takes two or more countries to participate in order to make it work.

What work is there going to be for the lower class of Americans who rely on those minimum wage/lower paying jobs? Isn't it best for a person to have a lower paying job than no job at all? We need all the jobs we can get in this country.

Now the issue concerning you having your job outsourced. You say that you would just find another job. Well, thats easier said than done. I read an article early last year about a computer engineer in the private sector who was at the top of his game and lost his job due to outsourcing. No warning, nothing. They even made him train those that were going to take his place. How low is that? He went looking for another job that made the same salary that his other job had made. He couldn't find one because a lot of the other technical jobs had been outsourced as well. Back then, he was in debt and looking for a decent paying job.

How would you feel if you had a family, a house, a nice car, and a great job and then all the sudden you lost it? What if you found out that the company fired you and 85% of its staff to hire cheap labor over in India? Not only that but were asked to stay so that you could train those that were coming in to take your place. You'd be pissed and you'd have good reason to be. But with your thinking, it'd be okay because you did your part in helping the economy. :hmph: Tell that to someone who's out of work.

Its not that easy just to find another job and retrain. That takes money and time. If you've lost your job, where are you going to find money to go back to school or the time? It would be really difficult.

Bottom line, corporations have little to no respect for their workers. The very people that make them rich.
 
satch919 said:
I have a little knowledge on the subject. Comparative advantage, to my understanding, is when we can produce some sort of product at a smaller price than some other country and they, in turn, can also manufacture some product cheaper than we can. Then, if we trade, we have the possibility of both getting a large profit.
Click to expand...

That is pretty much it. But there is no possibility, the gains are certain, and there is more to it than just profit.

That sounds all well and good but I'm not so sure its working nowadays. America has been shipping all its industry overseas. What do we manufacture? What resource do we have in large quantities that other nations need? Money. We generate a lot of money. We also import a lot of our goods. Now with Bush's cut on farming, we will have even less product to export. Our shirts and pants are made in Mexico, China, Taiwan, etc. Our quality cars are made in Japan and Germany(Europe). We import a lot of our fossil fuels.

If we don't have any products to export, how can we continue this comparative advantage theory? It takes two or more countries to participate in order to make it work.
Click to expand...

Comparative advantage isn't theory, it is tried and true fact. Second, we will always have exports, always. I not material goods then we have tourism. If not tourism then we have technology. If not for some form of outsourcing chances are you would have to make 50 times as much money as you are now to be able to type these messages.

What work is there going to be for the lower class of Americans who rely on those minimum wage/lower paying jobs? Isn't it best for a person to have a lower paying job than no job at all? We need all the jobs we can get in this country.
Click to expand...

Take a lower paying job, get unemployment benefits and retrain.

Now the issue concerning you having your job outsourced. You say that you would just find another job. Well, thats easier said than done. I read an article early last year about a computer engineer in the private sector who was at the top of his game and lost his job due to outsourcing. No warning, nothing. They even made him train those that were going to take his place. How low is that? He went looking for another job that made the same salary that his other job had made. He couldn't find one because a lot of the other technical jobs had been outsourced as well. Back then, he was in debt and looking for a decent paying job.
Click to expand...

Sucks to be as idiotic as that guy. Where was his emergeny savings to cover his ass? Did he take advantage of unemployment benefits? Why couldn't he take a paycut until he was able to find a differnt job? Why couldn't he retrain for a differnt field? Why couldn't he move to another place where jobs were available?

How would you feel if you had a family, a house, a nice car, and a great job and then all the sudden you lost it? What if you found out that the company fired you and 85% of its staff to hire cheap labor over in India? Not only that but were asked to stay so that you could train those that were coming in to take your place. You'd be pissed and you'd have good reason to be. But with your thinking, it'd be okay because you did your part in helping the economy. :hmph: Tell that to someone who's out of work.
Click to expand...

Oh, so now you are a mind reader. How do you know I would be pissed? If I had all those things I would have a savings to cover my ass, for one. I would take advantage of unemployment benefits and other welfare programs, for two. And last, I would get off my ass and look for a job, retrain if necessary, so I could pay for my lifestyle. That or adjust my lifestyle to something I can afford.


Its not that easy just to find another job and retrain. That takes money and time. If you've lost your job, where are you going to find money to go back to school or the time? It would be really difficult.
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Easy, unemployment benefits and disaster savings. If I have a nice hose and nice cars then there is no reason to not have an emergency savings plan. Anyone who loses a job that is able to provide nice things can get unemployment benefits.

Bottom line, corporations have little to no respect for their workers. The very people that make them rich.
Click to expand...

Source?
 
Well for now our workforce is more trained than China's, so if you are in a more high level management role, maybe you'll lose your job due to outsourcing, but there's also the opportunity to be invited to work overseas, for a slightly lower wage, but a much lower cost of living, to provide your expertise -something they are lacking.

But it can be unfortunate if you are in a low level worker role, those kinds of jobs are fleeing overseas rapidly.
 
Bodacious, you always ask for a source. There's nothing terribly wrong with that but, come on, do some research. Google should bring up plenty of things.

I'm going to go do some exercise. I'll comment on your other questions later. :)
 
Bodacious said:
Source?

Do you even know what comparative advantage is?


If my job was outsourced I would find another one. If I had to retrain I would do that, too.

Educate yourself on some economics before you come back in here spewing garbage.
Click to expand...
How about you provide a source of when outsourcing has actually worked. Let me give you one of where it didn't:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/01/28/world.outsourcing/

Also, I love how you say you could just go out and find another job. Tell me where you live and what you do; lets see how easy it will be.
 
satch919 said:
Bodacious, you always ask for a source. There's nothing terribly wrong with that but, come on, do some research. Google should bring up plenty of things.

I'm going to go do some exercise. I'll comment on your other questions later. :)
Click to expand...


Burden of proof is on the accuser. If you are going to make the accusations, prove them. Otherwise they are hearsay and conjecture. Fail to provide a source? I win.
 
Bodacious said:
Burden of proof is on the accuser. If you are going to make the accusations, prove them. Otherwise they are hearsay and conjecture. Fail to provide a source? I win.
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*points to post right above yours*
 
No Limit, if are replying to anything I said, you are on ignore, so don't expect anything from me.
 
Bodacious said:
No Limit, if are replying to anything I said, you are on ignore, so don't expect anything from me.
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Lol, whatever makes it easier for you to ignore the facts. I will continue to disprove everything you say as I did in this case.
 
Bodacious said:
Burden of proof is on the accuser. If you are going to make the accusations, prove them. Otherwise they are hearsay and conjecture. Fail to provide a source? I win.
Click to expand...


This isn't court. This is an online debate. Besides, you tend to learn a lot anyways by researching yourself. I'll find a link for you though since you're research impaired.

You obviously have access to the internet and it would also stand to reason that you know how to use Google or any other kind of search engine. You also have enough time to post on here so why not use that time to research topics on your own?
 
satch919 said:
This isn't court. This is an online debate. Besides, you tend to learn a lot anyways by researching yourself. I'll find a link for you though since you're research impaired.

You obviously have access to the internet and it would also stand to reason that you know how to use Google or any other kind of search engine. You also have enough time to post on here so why not use that time to research topics on your own?
Click to expand...


Why would I reasearch something I believe not to be true? If you don't think burden of proof is on the accuser, well, I guess we have nothing to talka bout.
 
Here's your sources regarding poor treatment of workers.

http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/sweatshops/nike/faq.html

http://www.mcspotlight.org/case/index.html

http://members.aol.com/walmopboy/abuse/strl.htm

http://www.legalnewswatch.com/news_453.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/02/12/national/main673677.shtml

There's more and all you have to do is look.

I have a personal story to tell. I worked at Sam's Club for a year. During that time, I saw many employees get screwed. I got screwed as well.

When I first started, they made it sound like they offered all these kinds of benefits. On its face, it looked good. However, further reading told me that it cost X amount to buy into these options. Now, with the money that I was making, there was absolutely no way I could afford it. Now, Wal-Mart and Sam's Club makes tens of billions of dollars a year. http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2005/02/14/daily46.html With that kind of income, they can't even give their employees proper benefits or coverage? The few at the top are the one's who are benefitting. Want more evidence?

http://www.aflcio.org/corporateamerica/walmart/walmart_3.cfm

Those people aren't the only cases either. Its in every Wal-Mart and Sam's Club.

Check this out:

http://www.aflcio.org/corporateamerica/ns02112005.cfm

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/cpress/20050209/ca_pr_on_bu/que_wal_mart_2

Wal-Mart would rather close their stores than let a union into their stores. Thats low.

This is the kind of crap that happens in private industry.
 
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