Valve has been very quiet about HL2 and the console ports. The following is what I think will happen--feel free to post your own ideas!
I think Valve will *not* release HL2 on the Xbox. Releasing on the Xbox would be a problem for 2 reasons: (1) The GPU in the Xbox would require HL2 to be visually neutered, and (2) CS:S is CPU limited in a lot of benchmarks. If HL2 has a framerate bottleneck on a AMD64 3800+ due to CPU loads, what will come of the Xbox which has a neutered PIII 733MHz?
So porting HL2 would require both the graphics and physics/AI to be cut down significantly--not to mention it would most like run at 480p at best (640x480).
Lets consider the Xbox 2. "Rumor" has to say this about Xbox2:
Release: Xbox 2 may be here in 2005.
CPU: 3 dual core (or 2 tricore) PPC5 processors running at 3.5GHz
GPU:ATi newest video card technology (R500; ATis new unlreased PC card is R520; compare current X800 is R420). This GPU will support SM 3.0, 3Dc, and 10+MB of embedded RAM and will run at 500MHz or more.
Vidual Output: 720p, 1080i, AND CRT MONITOR SUPPORT.
MS just released Halo2, which means they wont have another Halo game next year or most likely even the year after (2006). Developing next generation applications takes TIME and lots of money. People will need a reason to move into the next gen. While Rare is definately working on Xbox2 titles, if MS releases in 2005 they will be hard pressed to find quality games to make gamers buy their new system...
Spot light shifts to Valve. HL2 is truly a next gen app. While HL2 would run poorly on the Xbox, the Xbox2 has more than enough processing and GPU power to do *upgraded* physics, AI, and rendering. And since HL2 is DONE, spending 1 year to port/upgrade HL2 to take advantage of the Xbox would be feasible.
Releasing HL2 for the Xbox2 is a good strategy for both involved:
MS gets a killer launch title that is truly next gen--Physics, AI, and visuals. And if Valve throws in CSS as the multiplayer the Xbox2 gets a the most popular online action multiplayer game at launch. There are a lot of console gamers who would really enjoy a visually impressive CS game. And having CSS as the multiplayer opens the door for CS2 being released as a bigtime Xbox2 multiplayer game.
Valve gets a ROBUST version of HL2 to show to the masses, not a neutered Xbox port. With the CPU power Valve could really go nuts in tweaking AI and Physics, and the GPU will support some advanced features that will make HL2 look even better than on the PC. And most importantly Console game sell well--releasing HL2 as a Xbox2 launch title (especially if it wins PC GOY for 2004 and is upgraded) would bring in much needed revenue. Even if it sold 2 million copies in 3 years, that is a lot of money. And opening up the HL franchise to the console market in a big way--showing them what next titles should be like--will create a large stir for Valves next games.
Therefore I see no reason for HL2 to be released on the Xbox (the only pro is the large install base compared to a new system launch). I think the physics and AI would suffer on the Xbox, not to mention the visuals.
I think Valve will *not* release HL2 on the Xbox. Releasing on the Xbox would be a problem for 2 reasons: (1) The GPU in the Xbox would require HL2 to be visually neutered, and (2) CS:S is CPU limited in a lot of benchmarks. If HL2 has a framerate bottleneck on a AMD64 3800+ due to CPU loads, what will come of the Xbox which has a neutered PIII 733MHz?
So porting HL2 would require both the graphics and physics/AI to be cut down significantly--not to mention it would most like run at 480p at best (640x480).
Lets consider the Xbox 2. "Rumor" has to say this about Xbox2:
Release: Xbox 2 may be here in 2005.
CPU: 3 dual core (or 2 tricore) PPC5 processors running at 3.5GHz
GPU:ATi newest video card technology (R500; ATis new unlreased PC card is R520; compare current X800 is R420). This GPU will support SM 3.0, 3Dc, and 10+MB of embedded RAM and will run at 500MHz or more.
Vidual Output: 720p, 1080i, AND CRT MONITOR SUPPORT.
MS just released Halo2, which means they wont have another Halo game next year or most likely even the year after (2006). Developing next generation applications takes TIME and lots of money. People will need a reason to move into the next gen. While Rare is definately working on Xbox2 titles, if MS releases in 2005 they will be hard pressed to find quality games to make gamers buy their new system...
Spot light shifts to Valve. HL2 is truly a next gen app. While HL2 would run poorly on the Xbox, the Xbox2 has more than enough processing and GPU power to do *upgraded* physics, AI, and rendering. And since HL2 is DONE, spending 1 year to port/upgrade HL2 to take advantage of the Xbox would be feasible.
Releasing HL2 for the Xbox2 is a good strategy for both involved:
MS gets a killer launch title that is truly next gen--Physics, AI, and visuals. And if Valve throws in CSS as the multiplayer the Xbox2 gets a the most popular online action multiplayer game at launch. There are a lot of console gamers who would really enjoy a visually impressive CS game. And having CSS as the multiplayer opens the door for CS2 being released as a bigtime Xbox2 multiplayer game.
Valve gets a ROBUST version of HL2 to show to the masses, not a neutered Xbox port. With the CPU power Valve could really go nuts in tweaking AI and Physics, and the GPU will support some advanced features that will make HL2 look even better than on the PC. And most importantly Console game sell well--releasing HL2 as a Xbox2 launch title (especially if it wins PC GOY for 2004 and is upgraded) would bring in much needed revenue. Even if it sold 2 million copies in 3 years, that is a lot of money. And opening up the HL franchise to the console market in a big way--showing them what next titles should be like--will create a large stir for Valves next games.
Therefore I see no reason for HL2 to be released on the Xbox (the only pro is the large install base compared to a new system launch). I think the physics and AI would suffer on the Xbox, not to mention the visuals.