I think McCain has a pretty good chance.

[SIGbastard]

That is what I thought in the beginning even though he was low on my list of possible candidates.

Then all the non-stop media hype of Obama and trashing of McCain started to affect me for some reason. I pretty much felt it was inevitable Obama would win.

Now I am back to thinking McCain has a damn good chance. I personally think the last week has changed alot and most recent polls show this.

My unpopular opinion (here anyways) is that he will win both the popular and electoral vote. I could be wrong, but I want it on the record just the same. I am fairly confident in this.

 

[kineaesth]

I think it would be better for all of us if he didn't.

Anyway, my History teacher said that this election is Obama's to lose, so I'm going with that.

 

[Pesmerga]

Awesome.

 

[French Ninja]

I still think it's anyone's game.

 

[SIGbastard]

I still think it's anyone's game.

So do I. I just said what I "think" will happen.

 

[FoxDie]

So do I. I just said what I "think" will happen.

What you "think" will happen, or what you "hope" will happen?

 

[MJ12]

I heard hoping for something enough makes it come true.

 

[Eejit]

And if you think happy thoughts, with a little bit of fairy dust, you can fly!

 

[DEATHMASTER]

The south are racists and outnumber the north, that why.

 

[jondy]

I'm still really confident Obama will lose, and I'm entirely unsure why.

 

[Raziaar]

I'm really, really, really, really hoping Obama will win. I think he will win.

But I'm also leaving room for the possibility that McCain wins, and this country continues circling down the drain.

 

[VictimOfScience]

Every single shred of historical evidence points to no chance for Obama to lose. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.

*knocks wood*

That said, elections in this country have a strange way of turning out exactly the opposite of what is expected. If McCain wins, it will be because of foul play. That much we can be sure of at least.

 

[Krynn72]

According to this, , Barack has 277 electorial votes, whereas McCain has 174. With 192 certain to vote for Obama, and 122 certain for McCain. So unless McCain gets around 70% of the undecided votes (which CNN estimates Barack has more chance to get ~ 60 percent of them) then he wont win the electoral vote.

 

[CptStern]

Now I am back to thinking McCain has a damn good chance. I personally think the last week has changed alot and most recent polls show this.

My unpopular opinion (here anyways) is that he will win both the popular and electoral vote. I could be wrong, but I want it on the record just the same. I am fairly confident in this.

going on a hunch because there is absolutely nothing to support your contention or jumping on the recent "fear of a black president gives voters cold feet at last minute" bandwagon the conservative blogosphere seems to be pushing these days?

 

[Kadayi]

Frankly I'll laugh my ass off if he does, because after another 4 more years of ass****ing even the rednecks might realise they made a mistake. Still you'll have you're guns though...and that's all that matters hey :dozey:

 

[SIGbastard]

going on a hunch because there is absolutely nothing to support your contention or jumping on the recent "fear of a black president gives voters cold feet at last minute" bandwagon the conservative blogosphere seems to be pushing these days?

You never dissapoint Stern. Always putting words into other peoples mouths. It frankly has nothing to do with race. I'm really not about to debate why or how just putting out there what I think is going to go down.

Oh and Fox it is both what I "hope" will happen and "think" will happen. I could be completely wrong.

 

[CptStern]

You never dissapoint Stern. Always putting words into other peoples mouths. It frankly has nothing to do with race. I'm really not about to debate why or how just putting out there what I think is going to go down.

Oh and Fox it is both what I "hope" will happen and "think" will happen. I could be completely wrong.

I'm not putting words in your mouth ..I'm asking a valid question. really I cant see any evidence that says mccain has even a remote chance of winning ...even outspoken conservatives think his only chance lies in a sudden change in heart motivated by race, he's way down in the polls there's no other way of a comeback

http://www.etherzone.com/2008/metc102008.shtml
http://blogsforjohnmccain.com/category/tags/bradley-effect
http://www.thenextright.com/chase-higgins/are-the-polls-hiding-a-mccain-lead

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

 

[Raziaar]

I am crossing my fingers and praying to god that the Bradley effect has already happened to the greatest extent that it will.

 

[CptStern]

read somewhere that obama still has a good chance of winning even with the bradley effect; he's that far ahead in the polls

 

[xcellerate]

if mccain wins I'm moving to purgatory. I hate that man, his followers, and his vice president.

 

[VictimOfScience]

if mccain wins I'm moving to purgatory. I hate that man, his followers, and his vice president.

Yeah, and to think in 2000 he actually look good to me!! Of course he was like Biden's age back then--all hale and hearty.

 

[SIGbastard]

Guns are not all I care about. It is an important issue to me but it is not the only one.

The latest polls only show Obama up by a few points often up so little it is close to being within the margin of error. McCain is gaining ground.

It's not a sure thing but he has a lot better chance than I was starting to be fooled in to believing.

Besides the polls historically haven't meant a whole lot unless your talking huge odds.

 

[SIGbastard]

I am crossing my fingers and praying to god that the Bradley effect has already happened to the greatest extent that it will.

The bradley affect doesn't supposedly happen until people actually vote I thought but I seriously doubt it will account for much. Even if it does there are huge numbers of african americans voting for Obama simply because he is black. Nobody cares about that though because somehow it isn't racist. You know the whole double standard thing. The people I have talked politics with personally have never mentioned race as a reason for anything.

Oops double post. Oh well I guess it'll be lumped together or some stupid crap.

 

[CptStern]

The bradley affect doesn't supposedly happen until people actually vote I thought but I seriously doubt it will account for much. Even if it does there are huge numbers of african americans voting for Obama simply because he is black. Nobody cares about that though because somehow it isn't racist.

I'm sure there's tons of people who are voting for McCain because he's white (as opposed to black) ...Nobody cares about that though because somehow it isn't racist. .................... You know, the whole double standard thing.

 

[Atomic_Piggy]

If Mccain wins it is time to make a will, and take the next rocket to the moon.

 

[CptStern]

YOU BETCHA! <wink>

 

[Direwolf]

Guns are not all I care about. It is an important issue to me but it is not the only one.

The latest polls only show Obama up by a few points often up so little it is close to being within the margin of error. McCain is gaining ground.

It's not a sure thing but he has a lot better chance than I was starting to be fooled in to believing.

Besides the polls historically haven't meant a whole lot unless your talking huge odds.

So we're all clear here:
According to fivethirtyeight.com McCain currently has a 7.5% chance of winning. Meaning Obama has a 92.5% chance. This area of the forum doesn't permit images, but if you visit the site you'll see on the right side the statistical breakdown of every likely scenario for both candidates.

And anyone who wishes to question their methodology can also feel free to peruse it on the site, they've made all of their information public and freely available.

My point is not to try and rub it into Republican's faces, but to just point out that if we want to talk about this stuff we should deal with reality, not just what we think is reality.

 

[Qonfused]

lol @ 2% chance for McCain to win Michigan

 

[Kadayi]

Guns are not all I care about. It is an important issue to me but it is not the only one.

Don't worry. when you get drafted to fight 'The War for Freedom' against Iran in 2 years under McCain/Palin I'm pretty sure the Army will supply you with all the semi-automatics you need. Hell they might even throw in a few fragmentation grenades as well.

Don't forget on average 29,000 people die each year in the US because of archaic gun laws, but as long as you get to grease the odd animal now and then it's worth their sacrifice :dozey:

 

[Raziaar]

Don't worry. when you get drafted to fight 'The War for Freedom' against Iran in 2 years under McCain/Palin I'm pretty sure the Army will supply you with all the semi-automatics you need. Hell they might even throw in a few fragmentation grenades as well.

And it'll be a mission from god.

 

[Eejit]

Don't you blaspheme in here! Don't you blaspheme in here!

 

[VirusType2]

Obama is not going to take everyone's guns. It's false. And the people that say things like that are full of shit trying to steer voters. Do some research if you don't believe me. He is against some things like automatics, and other things like selling handguns to mentally ill, children, etc.

The only one I've ever met that owns automatics is SIGbastard.

Obama is a very intelligent man, and I don't believe he will mess with anything but problem areas.

 

[SIGbastard]

Obama is not going to take everyone's guns. It's false. And the people that say things like that are full of shit trying to steer voters. Do some research if you don't believe me. He is against some things like automatics, and other things like selling handguns to mentally ill, children, etc.

The only one I've ever met that owns automatics is SIGbastard.

Obama is a very intelligent man, and I don't believe he will mess with anything but problem areas.

I don't own a single fully automatic firearm. I own semi-automatic firearms but many hunting shotguns and rifles are semi-auto as well. The process to get fully automatic guns is complicated and costly. They are restricted/ not easily legally attainable, but can be legally attained in most states.

 

[No Limit]

I don't own a single fully automatic firearm.

So how do you sleep at night knowing you aren't safe?

 

[Qonfused]

I personally sleep with an automatic shotgun under my pillow.

 

[CptStern]

So how do you sleep at night knowing you aren't safe?

he has two gold plated handguns, several handgrenades, a set of bolas, a full sized trebuchet and a very sharp swiss army pen knife under his pillow


actually he has a semi automatic ...err killstick ..ar-10 (?) hanging on quick release straps a few feet from his bed ..that'll teach his kid to get up in the middle of the night for juice

 

[SIGbastard]

So how do you sleep at night knowing you aren't safe?

It's really hard

I do not jump at every sound hear at night. I have only gotten up to investigate a sound once or twice in the last 5 years and I'm certainly not swinging a gun around every corner. Furthermore I have a blindingly bright flashlight so I know what the hell is in front of me.

My kids do not have access to any of my guns or ammo.

 

[Sheepo]

Some people say he is old. I say he is very old.

 

[No Limit]

It's really hard

I do not jump at every sound hear at night. I have only gotten up to investigate a sound once or twice in the last 5 years and I'm certainly not swinging a gun around every corner. Furthermore I have a blindingly bright flashlight so I know what the hell is in front of me.

My kids do not have access to any of my guns or ammo.

I was just yanking your chain, lighten up a bit.

 

[Krynn72]

It's really hard

I do not jump at every sound hear at night. I have only gotten up to investigate a sound once or twice in the last 5 years and I'm certainly not swinging a gun around every corner. Furthermore I have a blindingly bright flashlight so I know what the hell is in front of me.

lol contradiction.

And thanks Direwolf, I was looking for that site when I originally posted but couldnt remember what it was. Its a very reassuring site.

Frankly I'll laugh my ass off if he does, because after another 4 more years of ass****ing even the rednecks might realise they made a mistake.

I wouldnt bet on it. All I see down here is McCain/Palin signs (though I have seen one Obama/Biden sign in front of a gas station \o/). I even stopped behind someone at a red light and saw their "I'm glad Bush is out president" bumper sticker. I literally facepalmed along with my two friends.