Direwolf
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Spotted this posted over at the PA forums:
http://www.buzzcut.com/article.php?story=2005053122342247
http://www.buzzcut.com/article.php?story=2005053122342247
Videogames are big business. We like to make that point clear when talking about games. The fact that entertainment software generates a lot of money helps us justify our interest and even our play.
Strangely, journalistic reporting and academic discourse on the subject of business trails almost every other aspect of game thinking. You’re as likely to find good Neo-Marxist feminist game criticism as you are in depth analysis of the medium as a business.
We see plenty of reporting and regurgitation of marketing hype. And we could subsist on an endless diet of wild speculation. But we rarely get the kind of business analysis that we need.
This gap was painfully obvious to me post-E3. Because while everyone was busily laying bets on the horse race between Sony and Microsoft for the dominance of the next generation of gaming, Nintendo was quietly disregarded on the side.
Business-wise, this was weird. Because as far as I can tell, Nintendo is the business story to watch. And strangely enough, you don’t have to try very hard to see why. I can only conclude that most of us are not looking at all.
Let me preface the following remarks with a couple of qualifiers. First, I am not a Nintendo fanboy. Like a lot of people, I’ve been trying to figure out Nintendo’s strategy, and wondering why they don’t do certain things. Like everyone else, I sat in the Nintendo press conference at E3 and said, “That’s it? Where’s the ‘Revolution’?” Also, I don’t consider myself a business analyst or even a biz reporter.
But I like to talk about business. And I have become convinced that the Nintendo story is emblematic of a chronic under-reporting of real business stories.. Let me explain in some detail.
Brass in pocket: Profit is Profit
Since videogames are a big business, it’s a good idea to understand how the game of business is scored. And the most impressive stat of all is net profit—the amount of money left over after the business has done what it has to do. This isn’t money collected from customers, but still owed to suppliers, lenders or the taxman. This is cash, free and clear. This is the company’s walking around money that either gets paid out to stockholders or saved for investment in new business opportunities.
In this light, it’s odd how few game commentators seem to understand just how profitable Nintendo really is. With a net margin of over 20%, Nintendo is a financial rock star. Just by way of comparison, General Electric, that monster global conglomerate whose executives write the books about corporate leadership that other Fortune 500 execs read, clocks in with a net margin of 11% Nintendo’s business engine is so efficient that even though they sell far less than Sony, they make, bottom line, about as much as all of Sony, Yes, that’s right. Little Nintendo generates about as much cash as giant Sony—electronics, movies, the works. (For a bunch of good financial data on this subject in one place, see PCVSConsole).
Now there are a number of lessons in this. But let me point to the most obvious:
When looking at the current console war, it’s important to keep in mind that Sony is a big company that does well on its games and film subsidiaries, but has been taking big losses in electronics. Microsoft is a very, very profitable software company that has so far taken large losses in its entertainment division. And Nintendo is a reasonably large company that has continued to make money with no obvious financial liabilities. As businesses, these three companies have different strengths and weaknesses. But none is the overwhelming leader from a business position.
Near term success dictates that Sony needs to hold market share and see the industry grow. Microsoft needs to gain market share and see the industry grow or else settle on an Reagan Cold War strategy—using the ample MS cash warchest, pursue deficit spending in it’s Xbox product line until the enemy, in this case Sony, faces financial collapse. All Nintendo really needs to do is just keep doing what it’s doing.
The platitudes and proclamations of the gaming press to the side, Nintendo is healthy. Even with the PSP in the market, Nintendo seems to be doing just fine.
And even though the announcement at E3 of the Game Boy Micro was greeted with a certain amount of skepticism and curious musing by the game press, from a business strategy standpoint, I expect that it will turn to pure gold.
Without making a significant investment in R&D or manufacturing, Nintendo repackages current technology and resells it at what, I would expect, is a healthy margin. Not only will the Micro put GBA technology in new hands, inevitably large numbers of the units will find their way into the shirt pockets and key chains of many current GBA owners. Not only will Nintendo make money on this new hardware product, it will stimulate additional demand for GBA software.
While Sony and Microsoft spent E3 showing off what billions of dollars of investment can do at their press events, Nintendo was demonstrating how minimal investment can generate cash.
That folks, is called smart business.
Yes, it makes for dull news. And the GBM can’t come close to generating the excitement of a PS3 or an Xbox 360. But this is where the fan-fueled press keeps going off the rails. We get excited about big ideas and the glitz and glory that colossal investments can create. But we miss the simple, sober successes of a solid business plan.
Hiding in Plain Sight: Market Differentiation
The chiming, chattering agreement of the game press these days is that Sony is going to beat Microsoft, but that Microsoft is going to take a chunk out of Sony. No one seems to think much about the next Nintendo hardware platform. And unless the big N surprises everyone with direct neural implants or something, I expect that the fan’s attention will continue to focus on the slugfest between Sony and MS.
But I think this is a misread and a gross misunderstanding of this market. Today Nintendo commands about 10% of the videogame market, give or take. This is important because Nintendo is terribly profitably, as we discussed, with this little slice of the game business. They have a business that has evolved to thrive at the edge of the market.
If you are Nintendo, you dream about taking over the lead in the market once again. But the reality is, you have a business built such that it could last 500 years doing just what it is doing, making cash hand over fist on a tenth of the market.
Further, you watched as Sega bet the farm on the Dreamcast and lost. You understand the opportunity and risk of ambition.
So, what do you do?
One obvious strategy is that you don’t do anything. You launch your next system with adequate power and adequate features, but you don’t worry about competing with Sony or Microsoft. In fact, you do everything you can to not compete.
In the war between Coke and Pepsi, non-cola sales go up. All the money Coke and Pepsi spend trying to displace each other in the market generates enormous amounts of interest in soda pop. But some people don’t want cola. So they buy root beer, and lemon-flavored fizzy water. Not-a-cola doesn’t have to spend the marketing dollars in the cola wars, but benefits from the attention generated by the prize fight—majority control of the soda market via cola.