Obama Falling in Polls

[RakuraiTenjin]

http://drudgereport.com/gp.jpg


STRESS BY GALLUP: OBAMA +2

Please click the link to that chart

 

[Eejit]

To review the national polling situation briefly: Gallup and Research 2000 moved toward McCain, and IBD/TIPP moved toward Obama; the other five trackers were essentially flat. Among the one-off national polls, Pew and ARG moved toward Obama, and Ipsos moved toward McCain.

Statistics fluctuate.

 

[RakuraiTenjin]

Yes, but the thing is the undecided voters generally go with whichever candidate has MOMENTUM by election date. it doesn't matter what party or how far behind, just that they have momentum will take the undecided votes. If Obama had it he'd take it, if McCain had it he'd take them.


Obama has maintained momentum for weeks but faltering in the week before the election can mean death votes wise.

 

[Eejit]

Looking at a single poll on a single day to say momentum has shifted is deceiving yourself.

 

[RakuraiTenjin]

Looking at a single poll on a single day to say momentum has shifted is deceiving yourself.

It's not this single day, it has steadily been moving this direction. Obama had a far larger lead before. The past week he's been slipping.

 

[Eejit]

I'm sure you would get that impression if you follow polls via Drudge report, cherry picking the ones that look optimistic for McCain.

 

[OmegaX]

I'm sorry but I don't think there is any way McCain will win at this point. If he does...well the election must be rigged :cheese:

 

[RakuraiTenjin]

I'm sure you would get that impression if you follow polls via Drudge report, cherry picking the ones that look optimistic for McCain.

Drudgereport has several polls, most list all polled voters, but half list "traditional voter model" of likely voters.

As much as the young always rail that they'll turn out they never really do man. It's just the truth. See Vote Or Die campaign and such as well. Half the people pushing that didnt even vote themselves.

I'm sorry but I don't think there is any way McCain will win at this point. If he does...well the election must be rigged :cheese:

This is the type of thinking that could lead to what I posted in my riots thread.

 

[Vigilante]

This means absolutely nothing.

 

[RakuraiTenjin]

This means absolutely nothing.

Like I said whoever has momentum on election day has always won the undecided voters.

Its always like that, whoever has momentum, regardless of platform or party. If Obama maintains his momentum he will win, but at this point McCain is mustering it precisely when he needs to pull in the undecided. If Obama wants to win he'll have to crush McCains momentum and get OFF the defensive (which he is really really on now, after being on the offensive for such a long run)

 

[Krynn72]

This means absolutely nothing.

This. McCain still has a <5% chance of winning.

 

[L3N!N]

I really don't think this means anything...

This. McCain still has a <5% chance of winning.

I'd have to agree.

 

[Ennui]

This is totally meaningless.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://pollster.com/

 

[delusional]

National polls are moving slightly towards McCain with Obama still up. While state polls are relatively the same.

All this is, is polling fluctuation.

 

[Hectic Glenn]

Inevitable result, is inevitable. It's pretty much a shut case now thank god.

 

[BabyHeadCrab]

Inevitable result, is inevitable. It's pretty much a shut case now thank god.

I wish that were true, but this attitude has lost elections before. You're talking about a country that elected George W. Bush. twice. There's still a fight ahead. I'll hopefully but working to get people out to the polls for early voting and on the actual day of Nov. 4th as well.

 

[Vigilante]

I wish that were true, but this attitude has lost elections before. You're talking about a country that elected George W. Bush. twice. There's still a fight ahead.

This. It's not over and done with. McCain definitely has a good shot at winning. I mailed my absentee ballot today, voted Obama.

 

[staticprimer]

First, Drudge = lol. Second, that poll reflects Gallup's traditional model which is really rubbish especially in this election because it relies heavily on past voting behavior. That means it factors new voters and minorities much less, two groups that are expected to have and likely already have had record turn outs. Gallup's expanded model has Obama up by 7, which is more in line with average polling.

 

[ThunderDawg]

Polls can be deliberately misleading. I have worked in the Demographics industry.

You can observe a housefly that flies away when you clap your hands.
But when you pull off its wings, it doesn't fly away when you clap your hands.
Does that make the fly deaf because it doesn't fly away?

 

[Absinthe]

This means jack diddly shit.