Over 50 Billion

[Warped]

50 Billion Alien Planets May Inhabit Our Milky Way Galaxy

Our galaxy could be home to a whopping 50 billion planets, say scientists working on NASA's Kepler planet-hunting telescope.

While Kepler hasn't found nearly that many planets — to date it's counted 1,235 candidate planets — that cosmic tally is researchers' best guess, extrapolated from preliminary data. The Kepler spacecraft, which launched in March 2009, is the world's most sophisticated observatory dedicated to studying alien planets.

Kepler scientists presented an update on the spacecraft's findings this month at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C.

"I am really delighted to find that we are seeing so many candidates," said William Borucki, Kepler's principal investigator. "It means there's a very rich ocean of planets out there to explore."

More Found Here

I can't believe that number, imagine how long it would take for humans or even robots to even visit just 1% of that. Makes you feel even smaller as a species

Related news: They're building an even larger telescope in Hawaii,

The new telescope will scan the heavens in a range of wavelengths, from the ultraviolet to the mid-infrared. Its 98-foot-wide (30 m) primary mirror will give the telescope nine times the light-collecting power of today's most powerful telescopes in the optical/infrared range of the light spectrum, project officials said.

http://www.space.com/10998-hawaii-approves-giant-telescope.html

 

[The Monkey]

And yet not a single of them has civilizations that are emitting signals that reach us. Something is ****ed up here, I can't make sense of it. 50 billion planets and not a sign of (intelligent) life anywhere.

 

[Escaep]

And yet not a single of them has civilizations that are emitting signals that reach us. Something is ****ed up here, I can't make sense of it. 50 billion planets and not a sign of (intelligent) life anywhere.

They're just really shy.

 

[Yorick]

And yet not a single of them has civilizations that are emitting signals that reach us. Something is ****ed up here, I can't make sense of it. 50 billion planets and not a sign of (intelligent) life anywhere.

Yeah I wonder about that as well. It does seem really odd.

Though, just because we may be the most technologically advanced species around, doesn't mean that these planets don't have intelligent life. I mean, look how far we've come in just a few hundred years.

 

[Krynn72]

Maybe they're just not emitting signals that we can notice.

Also, the furthest planet in the Milky Way system is probably 70,000 light years away, meaning any sort of signal we know of would take a minimum of 70,000 years to reach Earth. So even if there is an intelligent life form on that planet, who evolved to a point where they can transmit identifiable signals into space 50,000 years before we were able to, it would still take us 20,000 years to even possibly receive the signal. Considering the universe all started with the big bang, its fairly likely that we're in roughly the same state of evolution as other lifeforms. "Roughly" meaning the difference between Neanderthal man and modern humans... times several thousand.

 

[ríomhaire]

Or we just aren't pointing the receivers in the right direction. I'm pretty sure we only have a small section of spaced covered.

 

[Shakermaker]

And yet not a single of them has civilizations that are emitting signals that reach us. Something is ****ed up here, I can't make sense of it. 50 billion planets and not a sign of (intelligent) life anywhere.

Yeah I wonder about that as well. It does seem really odd.

Though, just because we may be the most technologically advanced species around, doesn't mean that these planets don't have intelligent life. I mean, look how far we've come in just a few hundred years.

You guys just formulated the Fermi Paradox.

 

[Yorick]

You guys just formulated the Fermi Paradox.

And then Krynn explained why we are dumb.

 

[Shakermaker]

And then Krynn explained why we are dumb.

And very eloquently I might add. Time is indeed one of the major factors.

 

[Yorick]

Halflife2.net: A progressive forum.

 

[The Monkey]

Yeah, no shit time is a factor. We have only been able to "hear" signals for the past 70 years or so, but even in that short timespan we should've picked up something from any of these 50 billion planets, if all civilizations are transmitting constantly (as the earth does at present). Either intelligent life is extremely rare, or it has a tendency to become extinct after only transmitting for a short time. Those are the only explanations I can come up with.

 

[<RJMC>]

plenty of chance of meeting those sexy green womans

 

[Yorick]

Yeah, no shit time is a factor. We have only been able to "hear" signals for the past 70 years or so, but even in that short timespan we should've picked up something from any of these 50 billion planets, if all civilizations are transmitting constantly (as the earth does at present). Either intelligent life is extremely rare, or it has a tendency to become extinct after only transmitting for a short time. Those are the only explanations I can come up with.

Reread Krynn's post.

Most of these planets are thousands of light-years away. Signals take time to travel.

 

[Higlac]

And yet not a single of them has civilizations that are emitting signals that reach us. Something is ****ed up here, I can't make sense of it. 50 billion planets and not a sign of (intelligent) life anywhere.

They're just following the prime directive.

 

[Stigmata]

Y'all need to take a look at Wolfram Alpha's interpretation of the Drake Equation. I think this is based on Drake's numbers, which are old, and not as accurate as they used to be. Plugging in what I feel are more realistic terms, I get anywhere between 2 and 10,000 communicating species in the Milky Way.

 

[The Monkey]

Reread Krynn's post.

Most of these planets are thousands of light-years away. Signals take time to travel.

Yes, I know that. But constant signals from thousand or millions of sources at different distances from earth should still produce more received signals on earth. Then again, I'm not an expert, so what do I know?

They're just following the prime directive.

I've always wondered, did that apply even when the planet at hand was about to destroy itself? Wouldn't the federation move in at that point?

 

[No Limit]

Yeah, no shit time is a factor. We have only been able to "hear" signals for the past 70 years or so, but even in that short timespan we should've picked up something from any of these 50 billion planets, if all civilizations are transmitting constantly (as the earth does at present). Either intelligent life is extremely rare, or it has a tendency to become extinct after only transmitting for a short time. Those are the only explanations I can come up with.

I think they only scanned a tiny fraction of our sky and a very tiny percentage of our own milky way. Humans also have a tendancy to believe that if aliens exist they must be like us. What if there is a much better way to send signals than the way we do it? As you said, we've only been doing this for 70 years or so. Our communication methods are in the infancy state.

So there are many other factors.

Also, I could be talking shit right now but I could have sworn that I read somewhere these signals fade as they get further. So there is a very limited range that we can look at (I never fully understood radio signals).

 

[Stigmata]

There's a third option: the EM frequency range of a sentient species' communication, or the medium over which it communicates, changes along with its technology, sociology, and biology. What if we're just listening to the wrong type of light?

 

[AKIRA]

Could be that some of the advanced races out there are already observing us without us knowing. Who knows what their technology is like. Could be a big of a gap as someone from now travelling back to the cavemen era and showing them IBM's Watson or even several thousands or millions times bigger gap than that...our Galaxy is billions years old who knows what kind of technology some ancient races could've come up with.

Or perhaps they just don't give a rats ass about us because they have more important things to worry about..they've obviously overcome petty issues such as political, environmental, (spiritual/religious??) and have evolved into a race which see's past all that that we still have yet to overcome(if we ever do).

 

[StarBob]

It's far too soon to be assuming we're going to find life on other planets. We've only really been LISTENING for like 25 years and only to certain parts of the sky for certain intervals for a specific set of signals. That only accounts for intelligent surviving life as well. Personally I believe that there's probably plenty of pretty average life forms out there. Life has been around for a while on this planet in at least a very basic form, so I figure there are a good chunk of them around the galaxy. However, if a civilization truly existed and survived without destroying itself (a la Carl Sagan's assumption) they probably achieved a sprawling space traveling colonizing society that, if it is aware of it, will probably make contact when we develop beyond our petty differences and reach for the stars.

 

[Stylo]

Guys, The Sun (the world's most trustworthy and accurate newspaper) reported that there IS life on other planets. Look! There are gorillas on Mars! Or "definitely a creature of some sort". You're all dumb.

 

[15357]

Humanity will never settle its differences until we find some aliens to shoot at.

Also, I don't know why everybody assumes that there are ancient alien civilizations way more advanced than us when it could be that all intelligent alien life are roughly in the same state of development as us.

 

[Maestro]

Humanity will never settle its differences until we find some aliens to shoot at.

Also, I don't know why everybody assumes that there are ancient alien civilizations way more advanced than us when it could be that all intelligent alien life are roughly in the same state of development as us.

Because finding that other intelligent life is on the same stage as Neanderthal or us circa steam-engine is boring as a bucket of shit.

 

[AKIRA]

Humanity will never settle its differences until we find some aliens to shoot at.

Also, I don't know why everybody assumes that there are ancient alien civilizations way more advanced than us when it could be that all intelligent alien life are roughly in the same state of development as us.

Highly unlikely. What're the odds of civilzations developping at the same time/rate than us?

 

[Krynn72]

And then Krynn explained why we are dumb.

Just another day on hl2.net.

Yeah, no shit time is a factor. We have only been able to "hear" signals for the past 70 years or so, but even in that short timespan we should've picked up something from any of these 50 billion planets, if all civilizations are transmitting constantly (as the earth does at present). Either intelligent life is extremely rare, or it has a tendency to become extinct after only transmitting for a short time. Those are the only explanations I can come up with.

So like, what sort of "signals" are you talking about? As you've said, we've only been able to "hear" signals for the past 70s years. We've also only been able to transmit signals for ~170 years. I'm talking signals other than "light" which would be indistinguishable to anybody else.

Look. The age of the universe, as we know it, is estimated to be just under 14 billion years old. The age of the earth, is ~4.5 billion years old. The first life on earth is estimated to have occurred 3.85 billion years ago. The first time we transmitted identifiable signals into outer space was 170 years ago.

If life began and progressed on other planets in an even remotely similar time-frame, which is likely considering we're all in the same galaxy and would have been roughly in the same spot just after the big bang, then the chances of another life-form being able to transmit signals that would already be reaching us is pretty ****ing small. And thats to say nothing about how we probably can only identify a fraction of all the "signal types" that exist in the entire universe. I mean, shit, another species might communicate with each other in a completely different way, not even requiring "transmission" that extends past their own atmosphere. Its not like another planet can just go "Oh, I bet Earthlings won't notice us unless we transmit in radio waves." They might have no concept of what such a thing is, just like we might have no concept of any other signal because we simply don't know of its existence.

EDIT:

Highly unlikely. What're the odds of civilzations developping at the same time/rate than us?

Read above. Its actually fairly likely. Maybe not in the grand scheme of the universe, but at least in our galaxy its actually pretty likely.

 

[AKIRA]

Just another day on hl2.net.

So like, what sort of "signals" are you talking about? As you've said, we've only been able to "hear" signals for the past 70s years. We've also only been able to transmit signals for ~170 years. I'm talking signals other than "light" which would be indistinguishable to anybody else.

Look. The age of the universe, as we know it, is estimated to be just under 14 billion years old. The age of the earth, is ~4.5 billion years old. The first life on earth is estimated to have occurred 3.85 billion years ago. The first time we transmitted identifiable signals into outer space was 170 years ago.

If life began and progressed on other planets in an even remotely similar time-frame, which is likely considering we're all in the same galaxy and would have been roughly in the same spot just after the big bang, then the chances of another life-form being able to transmit signals that would already be reaching us is pretty ****ing small. And thats to say nothing about how we probably can only identify a fraction of all the "signal types" that exist in the entire universe. I mean, shit, another species might communicate with each other in a completely different way, not even requiring "transmission" that extends past their own atmosphere. Its not like another planet can just go "Oh, I bet Earthlings won't notice us unless we transmit in radio waves." They might have no concept of what such a thing is, just like we might have no concept of any other signal because we simply don't know of its existence.

EDIT:


Read above. Its actually fairly likely. Maybe not in the grand scheme of the universe, but at least in our galaxy its actually pretty likely.

Good point about them using a different medium for communicating. One thing I have always wondered is IS there another medium for communicating that humans have not thought of? I mean we're talking purely physics here. Aside from the possible telekenisis(although not used in interstellar communication), from what we know about radio, ultra-violet etc and from what we know about technology, is there another way of communicating using technology?

I guess what I'm trying to say is that, these aliens are using probably the same chemicals/minerals/materials that we use to build things so by them using the same materials how can they possibly be using a different medium for communicating (one that we don't know about) for interstellar communcation? They surely must be using the same medium as us right?

That's why I always think that alien civilizations must be more advanced than us.

 

[Top Secret]

The problem with technology advancement is it can take off at an unexpected time, and exponentially. A race of beings might be in a perpetual state of low-technology for millions of years. A series of seemingly random events has led us to where we are in terms of technological advancements. Perhaps the chances of a life form being killed off via natural causes (ie, a very deadly disease or virus) might be much higher than the chance that said life form will become advanced enough in time to ward off a deadly disease or outbreak.

Personally? I think we should be looking for Dyson Spheres.

 

[JUL3]

I love the idea of alien human beings(?) that have evolved far beyond our 'intelligence'. Imagine life that has evolved beyond race and discrimination, and simply blended into a man=man society. Would be good.

But hey, war and mass genocide is nice too.

 

[Dynasty]

But surely it's statistically feasible.

Just our system has possibilities we know nothing of. We've only just started LOOKING at Mars properly, we havent even touched down in human form. We've only got probes and satellite images. It's like peering into a murky lake for 1 second with some goggles on and saying ''yep, we've seen it.''

And the sad thing is, we probably wont even see another moon landing in our life-times, thanks to the one thing that always holds back our potential: money.

Screw giving money to the teenage pregnants, throw big wads of cash at space exploration. I want my warp drive!

Because finding that other intelligent life is on the same stage as Neanderthal or us circa steam-engine is boring as a bucket of shit.

I hope that's sarcasm, or I'm about to be made to feel very sheepish.

We shouldn't care WHAT life we find. Just proof life exists out of our own expectations.

We're so bloody fixated on life HAVING TO exist where water is. I mean for god sake, we're limited by our own knowledge, something we have concluded ourselves based on what's around us. Half of what we know is probably wrong, but we arrogantly continue on thinking it's right.

 

[15357]

Because finding that other intelligent life is on the same stage as Neanderthal or us circa steam-engine is boring as a bucket of shit.

Well, I'd think it'd be very awesome and fun to enslave an entire civilization of savages and Victorians.

Highly unlikely. What're the odds of civilzations developping at the same time/rate than us?

Uh, near 1?

 

[No Limit]

Good point about them using a different medium for communicating. One thing I have always wondered is IS there another medium for communicating that humans have not thought of? I mean we're talking purely physics here. Aside from the possible telekenisis(although not used in interstellar communication), from what we know about radio, ultra-violet etc and from what we know about technology, is there another way of communicating using technology?

I guess what I'm trying to say is that, these aliens are using probably the same chemicals/minerals/materials that we use to build things so by them using the same materials how can they possibly be using a different medium for communicating (one that we don't know about) for interstellar communcation? They surely must be using the same medium as us right?

It's a bit naive to think that in our 100 years or so of understanding radio signals that we have it all figured out and there is no better way to do it. Our method actually kind of sucks, light is slow and as a result so is our methods of communicating.

There is new research about using special particles that don't seem to be bound by the speed of light which could provide instant communications no matter how far you are (dont know much about it, saw it I think on that universe show Morgan Freeman had on the science channel).

 

[Warped]

Wasn't there concern that radio signals get scrambled over long distances too? There is a theoretical max for everything its not like our signals are going to be crystal clear even when they hit Alpha Centauri

 

[The Monkey]

What force in space is corrupting the radio signals though?

 

[Warped]

What force in space is corrupting the radio signals though?

well even in our back yard solar waves disrupt communications on earth and then even larger gamma rays would do the same outside our safety of the Sun's Heliosphere. I'm just assuming the same goes throughout the galaxy and universe.

 

[Jerry_111]

Yeah I wonder about that as well. It does seem really odd.

Though, just because we may be the most technologically advanced species around, doesn't mean that these planets don't have intelligent life. I mean, look how far we've come in just a few hundred years.

Radiowaves dissipate after a few lightyears.... Maybe we just can't make out clear signals out of all that radiative muck.

Or maybe they're communicating via a faster, less primitive medium than radiowaves.

Or maybe the galaxy is just that big and we're only on the outer rim. We've only started "listening" maybe 50-60 years ago? A speck on the cosmic timescale.

Anyone heard of the Wow! Signal back in 1977?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal