Possibly five years to exit Iraq

[baxter]

Here is an interesting artical from the Guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1491683,00.html

It is a report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies. It suggests it could take up to five years before the Iraq Government is strong enough and an exit strategy put in place

It could take at least five years before Iraqi forces are strong enough to impose law and order on the country, the International Institute of Strategic Studies warned yesterday.

But it warned that the inspirational effect of the intervention in Iraq on Islamist terrorism was "the proverbial elephant in the living room. From al-Qaida's point of view, [President] Bush's Iraq policies have arguably produced a confluence of propitious circumstances: a strategically bogged down America, hated by much of the Islamic world, and regarded warily even by its allies".

Iraq "could serve as a valuable proving ground for 'blooding' foreign jihadists, and could conceivably form the basis of a second generation of capable al-Qaida leaders ... and middle-management players", the report said

The thinktank report points to US estimates that there are between 12,000 and 20,000 hardcore insurgents in Iraq. It says that Iraqi politicians have been keen to blame the rise in sectarian violence on foreign jihadists. "But they may have overstated their case.".

Reports and studies, even polls can be wrong but this is chilling reading.

 

[gh0st]

Not surpising. Enraging, really. Waste of ****ing time.

 

[MjM]

Ive heard 'decades' as well.

 

[bliink]

Bogged down like Russia was in Afghanistan

 

[MjM]

Unless the US can figure out how to make friends in Iraq, the US is gonna go nowhere fast.

 

[seinfeldrules]

Bogged down like Russia was in Afghanistan

Except these 'insurgents' arent being supplied with billions of dollars in weaponry from a superpower.

 

[Lobotomy Lobster]

Except these 'insurgents' arent being supplied with billions of dollars in weaponry from a superpower.

They don't need it. Guerrilla warfare is based around the idea of beating an opponent far larger than you without matching anywhere near their numbers or resources.

The fact is that the US ARE bogged down in a very similar situation to the Russians in Afghanistan. There is no way the US can pull out withing a period of 3 years. They have neither the favour of the populace, nor complete control of the country. Meanwhile, support for the insurgents is increasing within the Iraqi population, and in populations abroad. The insurgents are also very adept at manipulating public opinion, both on Iraq and in coalition countries (look how many countries are pulling out after all the hostage takings, and how many people who once supported the war are turning against it).

The main reason the US will have an uphill struggle is the fact that the people are not on their side. The rising civilian casualties are making a gulf between the US occupiers and the native Iraqis, which means the US forces cannot get the intelligence from the Iraqi people which is vital in fighting the insurgents. Unless there is a major change of strategy in how the war is fought by the US, the chances are the US will eventually be forced out of the country, in the same way they were forced out of Vietnam and the Russians were forced out of Afghanistan.

 

[CptStern]

no real surprise here ...the cia has been in iraq for 30 years or so

 

[dream431ca]

I find it funny when the US marches forward to something they think they can handle and then they get stuck in a hole. It's very amusing.

 

[gh0st]

I find it funny when the US marches forward to something they think they can handle and then they get stuck in a hole. It's very amusing.

Yes hilarious that American troops are over there dying. Really funny! **** you, maybe we should tk some more Canadians, that'd be a lark!

 

[jverne]

Yes hilarious that American troops are over there dying. Really funny! **** you, maybe we should tk some more Canadians, that'd be a lark!

Whose fault is it anyway that they are diyng?? You know who...!

 

[dream431ca]

Yes hilarious that American troops are over there dying. Really funny! **** you, maybe we should tk some more Canadians, that'd be a lark!

Don't take it personally...it's not like it's your fault they are dying..it's just the government's fault...and there not doing anything about it.

 

[Tr0n]

We'll probally find a way out.

Like start a war with Iran so the all the insurgents will go there instead! :thumbs:

 

[short recoil]

Guys calm down, otherwise the thread will be closed.

dream431ca, no it's not funny.
ghost, calm down.

 

[gh0st]

Hey man..it's your governments fault that they screwed up, it's just funny. And it's also your governments fault that they killed Canadians as well. Blame your own government for your own troops dying. And it's not TK, it's "friendly fire". Life is not a videogame (which your government seems to think it is).

Yes! Its policy of the US government to tk our friends! You win the game! Take of the liberal glasses and look at the world at how it is.

And what about all those innocent civilians American troops killed?? What about them?? Collatoral Damage?? I don't think so.

You think, that I think, we should be in Iraq right now? I dont give two shits about the average Iraqi, I would rather one American soldier live than a thousand Iraqis die: I'm not being hypocritical, I'm being honest.

I just find it typical that they can't see all the american families they destroyed.

How exactly do you find something "typical"? Its not like you care, you need some more stuff to laugh about dont you?

By the way, I'll be the first one laughing at all your troops deaths :cheers: Did you laugh when American troops died in Normandy?

 

[CptStern]

gh0st your bad karma is reaching a level of inevitable meltdown. Maybe it's because your still young but your disregard for life is disturbing

 

[gh0st]

gh0st your bad karma is reaching a level of inevitable meltdown. Maybe it's because your still young but your disregard for life is disturbing

My disregard? I'm the only one REGARDING it. I dont laugh at this shit because it isnt funny, obviously I take it seriously. And you know I dont actually feel that way, but in principle I do.

 

[CptStern]

well it's the way you come across: american deaths not ok, iraqi deaths ok

 

[dream431ca]

My disregard? I'm the only one REGARDING it. I dont laugh at this shit because it isnt funny, obviously I take it seriously. And you know I dont actually feel that way, but in principle I do.

1000 Iraqis to 1 american?? If that's what you call Regarding life I don't wanna know what you mean by Disregarding life.

 

[gh0st]

well it's the way you come across: american deaths not ok, iraqi deaths ok

Did I say that? I TRIED to give the impression that I value american lives more than iraqi live. Do you value an American life more than a Canadian one? Dont give me some bullshit I regard life equally diatribe.

 

[CptStern]

national identity doesnt matter to me: character does


david duke (american racist politician) is not equal to Bob Hunter (canadian greenpeace founder)

Robert Pickton (canadian serial killer) is not equal to Jackson Pollack (american artist)

 

[dream431ca]

Did you laugh when American troops died in Normandy

Normandy was entirely different. American military had respect back then. Now in iraq, the military is basically a puppet. In Normandy, Americans were fighting for something alot more important than this bullshit iraq thing. It's surpising how you choose to compare Normandy to iraq which you KNOW they cannot be compared.

 

[Cons Himself]

Basically, us white guys got sick of killing each other after WW2 so decided to go kill everyone else instead.

I think it must be in our (White European) blood to kill and start wars. Our continent is the most blood-stained in the world.

Or, it could be that there there were too many powerful rich countries in such a small, densely populated space that gave us the end result.

Anyway I digress,

To me, I dont think its going to be as bad as Afghanistan for the Russians, or Nam for the Yanks. In Afghanistan, as someone has said, the Yanks were funding the Mujahideen up to the hilt. As soon as the new Stingers came out over there, they had them and were shooting down Russian Aircraft and Choppers.
Cant remember if even 1 American Jet has been downed by the Insurgency yet.
And the North Vietnamese had Russian funding up to the hilt too. The NVA had all the latest Russian tech.

These insurgents seem to be fighting a hit and run based campaign, but without the firepower to back it up.

The Vietcong had the North Vietnamese Army, the Mujahideen had American funding training and the latest weapons.

The Iraq insurgency seems to be based around small rifle fire, RPG attacks on soft targets, and mortar hit and run attacks against American bases. More like pin pricks really. American casualty rate is very low compared to Vietname (60 000 dead wasnt it?) or the Russians in Afghanistan which was even more.

Id say from a military perspective the Americans can soak this up for decades. They have the money and the manpower, and their casualties are quite light.

 

[gh0st]

Normandy was entirely different. American military had respect back then. Now in iraq, the military is basically a puppet. In Normandy, Americans were fighting for something alot more important than this bullshit iraq thing. It's surpising how you choose to compare Normandy to iraq which you KNOW they cannot be compared.

If you want to disrespect our troops, point your anger at our idiotic administration dont mock their deaths. There is NO difference between an american soldier during ww2 and now, except now we have a volunteer based army - hell even then many of our troops volunteered.

 

[dream431ca]

If you want to disrespect our troops, point your anger at our idiotic administration dont mock their deaths. There is NO difference between an american soldier during ww2 and now, except now we have a volunteer based army - hell even then many of our troops volunteered.

You completely misundestood my very first statement. I never even mentioned the troops in my first post. I was mentioning your administration not the troops. I was trying to explain to you that it's your government's fault. I was by no means disrespecting the troops. Please read more carefully.

 

[baxter]

I have been away for a few days and started this thread to try and engage opinions on the current events in Iraq.
As I stated the report is from an International body and gives an unbiased opinion on what is actually happening inside Iraq.
Dismiss the report all you wish but it is appalling that individuals take this as an excuse to flame each other over the deaths of anybody, let alone US soldiers.
I posted this report for opinions on the management or mismanagement of present day Iraq, not for Mickey taking of anybodies deaths.
Please take time to read the link before posting flaming remarks.