Source 2/Steam Machine/SteamOS: Development Timeframes?

[bluechirri]

Recently I've been attempting to write a theory about what could possibly be going on with Half Life 3, and what content the game might consist of when it comes out - I've spent a few weeks researching and I think I've managed to hit on something pretty likely, but an important part of my guess rests on the assumption that sometime between late 2010 and late 2012 Valve was focusing a great deal of their manpower and resources on the development of these three projects. I'm hoping to find a source that can help me narrow down that timeframe and perhaps offer a more exact estimate as to when each project began development, as I currently don't feel confident enough in my own technical skill to make an accurate guess as to when these products would have gone into development based on where they seem to be now.

So here I am, asking two questions - do you know of any sources that indicate when Source 2, the Steam Machine, and/or SteamOS went into development? And if not, what's your best estimate? I figure a good deal of the people here probably know a lot more about it than I do and are more qualified to guess.

Thanks for the help! I really appreciate it.

 

[Pikminiman]

All we have for estimating the time frames for these projects is educated (but still mostly blind) conjecture. With so little information about the inner workings of Valve that actually gets confirmed, we're not any more qualified to guess than you are.

 

[bluechirri]

Yeah, I figured, I just wanted to run it by a few forums just in case. I'm not as familiar with the general design process for software like this as I'm sure other people are, so I don't want to assume work on Source 2 started sometime in, say, 2011 without running it by other people first, you know?

Thanks anyways, though!

 

[-smash-]

Their idea of pushing Steam into the living room started in 2008, 2009, or 2010:

• A controller patent was filed November 2009 www.google.com/patents/US20110105231.
• I think it's safe to say that the idea of a Steam OS started with the idea of Big Picture Mode. Big Picture Mode was announced February 2011 http://store.steampowered.com/news/5063/.
• And the earliest reference to a Steam Machine, that I know of, is from November 2011 https://twitter.com/gregcoomer/status/131907166960484353.

As far as Source 2 goes, I personally cannot pinpoint a specific reference.


Other things to consider:

• The developments of the "Directed Design Experiments" and F-STOP were started in November 2007, and shown in February 2008 http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showpost.php?p=22026369&postcount=25.
• Portal sequel started roughly in November 2007, see directed design experiments.
• Counter-Strike sequel hinted at in February 2008 http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2008/03/valve-leaning-t/.
• First major update revealed for Team Fortress 2 February 2008 http://www.teamfortress.com/history.php.
• IceFrog gets his own team at Valve October 2009 http://www.playdota.com/forums/blog.php?b=264.

 

[SteamEmpire]

We have yet to see a new game as they've pretty much released a new game every year

 

[BabyHeadCrab]

Valve is not really a single player game developer anymore given it's been a decade since we've seen anything interesting in-house besides Portal/L4D--which imo, lack a great deal of depth.

 

[EngineerDogIta]

By my opinions source 2 is going to be innovative by using new technologies of virtual reality and half life too

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[10n02]

By my opinions source 2 is going to be innovative by using new technologies of virtual reality and half life too

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Source 1 already supports VR head-mounted display (Oculus Rift). I don't know if other Virtual Reality devices will come in the coming years.

 

[EngineerDogIta]

Source 1 already supports VR head-mounted display (Oculus Rift). I don't know if other Virtual Reality devices will come in the coming years.

Well but U know valve is developing wereable hardware so a mocap suit with vr headset shouldn be awesome??
Think about it....
A tf2 with mocap and the our personalized taunts

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[-smash-]

Valve recently hinted that they are working on adding earlobe biometric sensors to VR headsets.

"What Valve left out of the Steam Controller is almost as intriguing as what went in. Though Valve co-founder Gabe Newell told us that the company wanted to put biometric sensors into game controllers, the team discovered that hands weren't a good source of biofeedback since they were always moving around. However, the team hinted to me — strongly — that an unannounced future VR headset might measure your body's reaction to games at the earlobe. Such a device could know when you’re scared or excited, for instance, and adjust the experience to match."

http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/4/5...chine-valves-video-game-console-of-the-future

Valve have been working with biometrics in games since at least 2008. Many of their games to date were built with game metrics and biofeedback. For example, the L4D2 AI Director spawns certain events by estimating your arousal state over time. The estimates are based on real-time time data that was recorded with biometrics during playtests at Valve http://www.valvesoftware.com/publications/2011/ValveBiofeedback-Ambinder.pdf.

I think Mike Ambinder has been the lead on biometrics since day 1. He is an in-house experimental psychologist at Valve. Earliest reference to his work with biometrics that I can find is from October 2008 http://www.bth.se/fou/forskinfo.nsf...8ad46/$file/Nacke-etal-Game-Metrics-Panel.pdf. Then Gabe revealed that Valve was "really interested in testing biometrics on player state" December 2008 http://www.edge-online.com/features/gabe-newell-writes-edge/.

 

[Skyace65]

Well but U know valve is developing wereable hardware so a mocap suit with vr headset shouldn be awesome??
Think about it....
A tf2 with mocap and the our personalized taunts

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while that does sound awesome. I think for starters they should find a way to make characters in-game lip sync when someone uses a mic.

 

[EngineerDogIta]

while that does sound awesome. I think for starters they should find a way to make characters in-game lip sync when someone uses a mic.

Could be a pretty cool feature in the engine

 

[bluechirri]

Their idea of pushing Steam into the living room started in 2008, 2009, or 2010:

• A controller patent was filed November 2009 www.google.com/patents/US20110105231.
• I think it's safe to say that the idea of a Steam OS started with the idea of Big Picture Mode. Big Picture Mode was announced February 2011 http://store.steampowered.com/news/5063/.
• And the earliest reference to a Steam Machine, that I know of, is from November 2011 https://twitter.com/gregcoomer/status/131907166960484353.

As far as Source 2 goes, I personally cannot pinpoint a specific reference.


Other things to consider:

• The developments of the "Directed Design Experiments" and F-STOP were started in November 2007, and shown in February 2008 http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showpost.php?p=22026369&postcount=25.
• Portal sequel started roughly in November 2007, see directed design experiments.
• Counter-Strike sequel hinted at in February 2008 http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2008/03/valve-leaning-t/.
• First major update revealed for Team Fortress 2 February 2008 http://www.teamfortress.com/history.php.
• IceFrog gets his own team at Valve October 2009 http://www.playdota.com/forums/blog.php?b=264.

Oh, wow, this is all really useful. Thanks! I appreciate it.

Source 2 is definitely the tricky one to figure out - I haven't found any official, non-speculative references to it before Gabe confirmed it to the people who visited him for his birthday in fall 2012. We know from the leaked changelog that the engine was still in active development at least as of a few months ago, and it seemed as though L4D3 was being used as a tool to help build the engine, which seems to indicate that it can't have been in development for too long at that point... but we just don't have enough information to know for sure. And even if we had a better idea of when Source 2 started development, Valve's general design process is fluid and unspecified enough that we couldn't really guess anything about how close it is to being done, you know?

But, whatever, you can't find information that doesn't exist. Again, thanks for the help! These links are definitely going to come in handy.

 

[MindCrack]

Remember when Gabe in the interview said "The next five years, when you look back, it's going to make today look like the stone ages," he says before disappearing around a corner. That interview was in 2011. So my guess is, Valve had an idea of Source 2/Steam Machine/SteamOS in 2010.

 

[EngineerDogIta]

Remember when Gabe in the interview said "The next five years, when you look back, it's going to make today look like the stone ages," he says before disappearing around a corner. That interview was in 2011. So my guess is, Valve had an idea of Source 2/Steam Machine/SteamOS in 2010.

I guess we will find out something about it tomorrow

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[Codee212]

I guess we will find out something about it tomorrow

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Why tomorrow? Is there some kind of event I don't know about?

 

[SteamEmpire]

Why tomorrow? Is there some kind of event I don't know about?

Steam dev days, It's off the record tho so I don't see any reason why you should get exited.

 

[bluechirri]

Remember when Gabe in the interview said "The next five years, when you look back, it's going to make today look like the stone ages," he says before disappearing around a corner. That interview was in 2011. So my guess is, Valve had an idea of Source 2/Steam Machine/SteamOS in 2010.

Personally I think it's definitely looking like 2010 was the start of it all, at this point. 2011 was when they seem to have started hinting at it to the public, which indicates that they had something to hint about at that point.

Also, as far as I can tell, it was around 2010/2011 when code with Half Life 3-esque filenames stopped being discovered in SDK released by Valve, and when they started becoming much more reserved and noncommittal with answers to questions about the next Half Life title. This all leads me to believe they had a Half Life project they were working on from 2008 to 2010, which wasn't working and which they set aside to focus on the Steam Machine initiative and Source 2, and then revived or rebooted sometime in late 2012/early 2013 in the hopes that they could finish a game relatively soon after the consoles come out to supplement their launch (which probably won't happen because this is Valve, but as the goal they're trying for I think it makes sense).

...But I go into more detail in the post I'm writing, so I'll stop there because I need to go before I'm late to an appointment, haha.

 

[Codee212]

Steam dev days, It's off the record tho so I don't see any reason why you should get exited.

Right. Totally forgot about that, thanks.

 

[BabyHeadCrab]

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