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GMansAgent
Guest
The VALVe "Conspiracy" Theory.
Like the title says, this is a theory of mine. Don't like it? Don't read it. Simple enough. (But if you're going to read it, read the whole thing). I'm not writing this for people to argue over or anything like that. I'm writing it for me and to get my views across.
That being said, Let's Go.
The state of The Game: I believe VALVe, in all their sincere efforts to make a great game, continually fall short of their deadlines and are starting to annoy the general public. I feel the game is nowhere near done (the reason for a possible 6 month delay until April 2004) and VALVe is looking for a way out.
The Source Code Leak: This is pretty much the only real downside of the whole issue. I sincerely believe VALVe was hacked into and the source code obtained. I think this personally sucks that 5 years of their lives were spent making a product that it took some one 30 minutes to download and then a few hours to mass distribute. Being a student programmer with dreams of working on games when I get out of college, I personally feel for VALVe.
The Leaked Beta: This is really all just a big cover up (and a nice one at that) for VALVe. I personally do not have the beta and won't download it, but a few good friends of mine have it and have some rather interesting conclusions on it. I don't know if this is subject to ban, I don't/hope not, but if it is, so be it. My good friends who have played the beta have repeatedly assured me that this "beta" is in worse shape than an alpha. In fact, we have come to believe this is the Alpha build used to showcase the E3 demos we all love. The levels are the ones in E3 (no more) and the features in the E3 demos are the same ones here. Even the sounds (which would have long been recorded for the whole story line and dialogue) are only the ones in the E3 demos. If this were actual beta content, there would be more game content than this.
Now how is this a cover up on VALVe's part? Simple. The game source code got leaked. That sucks. Everyone and their mom's wants this, but what can you really do with it? Nothing. Plain and simple. Nothing but collect the code.
It is my opinion that VALVe is the one responsible for leaking this E3 demo. Why? Simple. Diversion. Which is better? Source code or an actual beta? Beta people. The E3 Demo "beta" is just a diversion away from the source code, in hopes that it will deter the spread of the code. They've already show us the videos, why not leak the demo? It doesn't hurt VALVe, mainly because all the "beta" is is the ability to control the already released videos.
VALVe saw an opportunity here. The "bad guy" already nabbed the source code, why not pin a "beta" on him as well? After all, it is technically the same criminal charge of unauthorized entry and dsitribution of copyrighted works. So, we already have Reason for VALVe (cover the source leak and distract the public) and there is also Ability (they surely have the E3 demo still around) and there is Sympathy (the "leaker" is made to look like a mean person and is really slamming VALVe in the nfo files of his releases, not to mention the fact that everyone feels bad for VALVe already. VALVe comes out looking like an innocent 10 year old girl and everyone forgets about the umptenth delays.) as well as Cover (using an anonymous person [a.k.a. the "Leaker"] instead of a real release group. Why would release groups not want their names out there as being responsible for the Half-life 2 "Beta" leak? They did for Doom III, HALO, etc.). The hype is also a big factor. I don't think it is what VALVe's main objectives with this are, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have positive hype and press coverage on your side. The only thing missing is Motvie.
Motive, however, is fairly easy. The game is nowhere near done. They want more time. VALVe realizes this game will sell, regardless of whether its released in April 2004, Holiday season, or on the Apocolipse. Here is the meat of the theory. they needed a scapegoat and were tired of looking like crap for continually missing deadlines and schedules. They couldn't even produce a simple grpahics test for us users on time. I'm not dogging VALVe here, I know its hard to tell exactly when code will be done, but ultimately I think they were tired of looking bad. Release a beta along with the source code leak, and buy themselves some time (a good 6 months of it) to properly ensure the game is done.
Its logical. It fits. It explains a lot. Need I say more?
GMansAgent
Like the title says, this is a theory of mine. Don't like it? Don't read it. Simple enough. (But if you're going to read it, read the whole thing). I'm not writing this for people to argue over or anything like that. I'm writing it for me and to get my views across.
That being said, Let's Go.
The state of The Game: I believe VALVe, in all their sincere efforts to make a great game, continually fall short of their deadlines and are starting to annoy the general public. I feel the game is nowhere near done (the reason for a possible 6 month delay until April 2004) and VALVe is looking for a way out.
The Source Code Leak: This is pretty much the only real downside of the whole issue. I sincerely believe VALVe was hacked into and the source code obtained. I think this personally sucks that 5 years of their lives were spent making a product that it took some one 30 minutes to download and then a few hours to mass distribute. Being a student programmer with dreams of working on games when I get out of college, I personally feel for VALVe.
The Leaked Beta: This is really all just a big cover up (and a nice one at that) for VALVe. I personally do not have the beta and won't download it, but a few good friends of mine have it and have some rather interesting conclusions on it. I don't know if this is subject to ban, I don't/hope not, but if it is, so be it. My good friends who have played the beta have repeatedly assured me that this "beta" is in worse shape than an alpha. In fact, we have come to believe this is the Alpha build used to showcase the E3 demos we all love. The levels are the ones in E3 (no more) and the features in the E3 demos are the same ones here. Even the sounds (which would have long been recorded for the whole story line and dialogue) are only the ones in the E3 demos. If this were actual beta content, there would be more game content than this.
Now how is this a cover up on VALVe's part? Simple. The game source code got leaked. That sucks. Everyone and their mom's wants this, but what can you really do with it? Nothing. Plain and simple. Nothing but collect the code.
It is my opinion that VALVe is the one responsible for leaking this E3 demo. Why? Simple. Diversion. Which is better? Source code or an actual beta? Beta people. The E3 Demo "beta" is just a diversion away from the source code, in hopes that it will deter the spread of the code. They've already show us the videos, why not leak the demo? It doesn't hurt VALVe, mainly because all the "beta" is is the ability to control the already released videos.
VALVe saw an opportunity here. The "bad guy" already nabbed the source code, why not pin a "beta" on him as well? After all, it is technically the same criminal charge of unauthorized entry and dsitribution of copyrighted works. So, we already have Reason for VALVe (cover the source leak and distract the public) and there is also Ability (they surely have the E3 demo still around) and there is Sympathy (the "leaker" is made to look like a mean person and is really slamming VALVe in the nfo files of his releases, not to mention the fact that everyone feels bad for VALVe already. VALVe comes out looking like an innocent 10 year old girl and everyone forgets about the umptenth delays.) as well as Cover (using an anonymous person [a.k.a. the "Leaker"] instead of a real release group. Why would release groups not want their names out there as being responsible for the Half-life 2 "Beta" leak? They did for Doom III, HALO, etc.). The hype is also a big factor. I don't think it is what VALVe's main objectives with this are, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have positive hype and press coverage on your side. The only thing missing is Motvie.
Motive, however, is fairly easy. The game is nowhere near done. They want more time. VALVe realizes this game will sell, regardless of whether its released in April 2004, Holiday season, or on the Apocolipse. Here is the meat of the theory. they needed a scapegoat and were tired of looking like crap for continually missing deadlines and schedules. They couldn't even produce a simple grpahics test for us users on time. I'm not dogging VALVe here, I know its hard to tell exactly when code will be done, but ultimately I think they were tired of looking bad. Release a beta along with the source code leak, and buy themselves some time (a good 6 months of it) to properly ensure the game is done.
Its logical. It fits. It explains a lot. Need I say more?
GMansAgent
