Where is the truth?

[Spiffae]

This is just a question to spark debate, it has no "right" answer, nor will the answer ever be heard.

here are the facts/statements

• Valve announces HL2 for September 30th
• Newell: "we'll see" to spitcodfry a week before the 30th.
• Source code leak.
• Doug Lombardi (in an interview) "we're just watching people play through the game over and over and refining the experience"
• Doug Lombardi - "holidays 2003"
• Hacker "the beta is all that valve has"
• ATI planned to launch the 9800XT w/ HL2 on 9/30
• SDK, originally slated for August, is a no-show.
• Benchmark, for 9/30, is also a no-show
• now gabe: "even w/o theft, no HL2 in 2003"

So what the hell happened?

who was lying? at some point, no matter how you slice it, somebody said something that was not true, and they knew it. How on earth could a game have been announced as nearly done in May of 2003 suddenly be a definite 2004 title? How could this really have nothing to do with the code theft? Some people suggest that Valve's whole 9/30 release was a scam in order to whip up publicity. That would seem likely, but Valve's business partners never would have signed on if the game was nowhere near done. ATI certainly wouldn't have spent the money they are rumored to have spent on a game sight unseen. They must have gotten some sort of demo. Maybe they just saw the E3 stuff.

If what the hacker got is all that Valve had, then certainly, there is no playtesting going on right now. If the game was nearly done, then it would have been out by christmas if the hack really hasn't changed the schedule. Either the game was not done, and the stuff about playtesting and AI segments shown to magazines were falsified, or the game was done and Valve is hushing up the damage the hacker did.

What do you guys think?

 

[Starfish]

I have a t-shirt somewhere with 's**t happens' printed on it. Game delays are common place today - get used to it.

As far as valve lying to us, then I guess it's a case of getting used to that too.

 

[crabcakes66]

http://halflife2.homelan.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=44


that forum is there for a reason

 

[bgesley426]

..its called marketing. or maybe another term would be probing. or...TEASING.

 

[perrkele]

Maybe no one lied. Maybe they were really aiming for September 30th, but when the date got closer the folks at Valve thought that it wasn't the game they wanted to release. They just weren't satisfied with it, so they delay it in order to make some improvements/changes (just like they did with the first Half-Life, remember?).

And about the source code theft, I'd assume they wouldn't admit that the theft was the reason for the delay even if it actually was... So if they indeed are "lying" (...I hate to use this word in this context) about something, I'd say it's about the theft&delay issue.

EDIT: Woah I'm a zombie!

 

[PvtRyan]

I think no one was lying (accept that hacker dude, but who the hell was he?) and Valve really was aiming for 30th september and for unknown reasons they had to delay it. There would be no gain for them by lying, if they knew all along that september 30th wouldn't be the releasedate, they could have said 'Q4 2003/Q1 2004' at E3.

Also, the fact that they made a deal with Ati for HL2 releasing with the XT's tells that HL2 was really planned for late september/early october. Otherwise it would be nonsense making a deal with a game that releases 6 months after your top-of-the-line videocard (which, obviously, won't be top of the line in april)

So the real question is: why was it delayed?

Poor quality of the game, Steam, hackers (this one I doubt) or something else?

 

[darkmistx]

One word: Steam!

 

[mrchimp]

fagmaster said that Lombardi had announced the delay to a select section of the gameing media (why fag was there then i don't know) a long time before the 30th. Which if true makes the publicity stunt theory more likely and I would believe it... if the idea that valve deliberately set a flase date that was months out wasn't complete bollocks.

Honestly this has not helped valve at all and i don't think they would have thought it would. I think they announced the delay only a few days before the 30th to keep us all in suspence and to send the kids crazy but they wouldn't **** us around this much intentionally. they thought the game would come out on the 30th but then changed there mind for whatever reason, it could be so they can take advantage of some new shiny tech or because they now have to make the game secure. It could even be because they just weren't satisfied with the game or steam (steams a bit shit).

 

[slapdragon]

Originally posted by mrchimp
fagmaster said that Lombardi had announced the delay to a select section of the gameing media (why fag was there then i don't know) a long time before the 30th. Which if true makes the publicity stunt theory more likely and I would believe it... if the idea that valve deliberately set a flase date that was months out wasn't complete bollocks.

you've got your story wrong.

http://www.forumplanet.com/planethalflife/topic.asp?fid=6563&tid=1166659

and note the date on the post all this was written before the source leak and he was also right about Valve taking CS:CZ from Ritual before that was announced.

 

[Kadayi]

I love that word 'lied', it's so playground :dozey:

It's not the first game to run into problems and I doubt it will be the last, frankly I'm with PvtRyan and perrkele as to the reasons. Stuff came up, some of which they 'might' of forseen (steam) and some of it that they couldn't of (hacking), and Valve had no choice but to delay the release. I doubt that was ever their intention, and certainly ATI probably aren't happy about it. But if it means that ultimately the final product is even better then personally I'm all for it.

 

[Keeson]

So what the hell happened?

What happened??? A great question!!!!


I am going to give my opinion, but beware if you are a fanboy you should stop reading.

You see, I believe Valve had an Evil Plan for 2003 :cheese:

Plan Goals:

:dork: 1) Presell the unfinished, almost vapourware HL2 for a large pile of money, use the money to pay the development costs

Hl2 development is costly. Valve has something like 85 employees now (many more than when they made HL1). Valve also has new offices. These things cost money but the revenues from HL1 are shrinking and Valve needs money to pay all these people. Failed Teamfortress2 and CS:CZ also has cost them development time and money. The last game they made themselves was HL1 - remember!

Where would Valve get the money to pay the spiralling development costs as HL2 slips further into the distant future. How will they pay the CS2/DOD teams and all of those 85 people??? Ask for an advance from Vivendi? No way!!!

But wait!!! HL2 will come out and make them millions, Sept. 30th baby! Right?????

Not so fast!!! There is a dirty little secret about HL2. Its not even close to being finished!!! They are years away from shipping HL2!!! Valve has missed Sept. 30th 2003 and they will miss Holidays 2003.

This is where the packin deal with ATI for 6 million comes in. Valve shows the game at E3 (it was a canned nonplayable demo unlike say the playable (with real A.I.) Far Cry demo at E3).

Valve created an enormous amount of hype for the game, they talked about shipping the software development kit in August (modders ears perked up). People can't get enough of HL2!!! There is much love for Valve/HL2, the hype is so thick you could cut it with a knife.

Then in August at the peak of the hype, Valve decides to cash in. They hold an auction between ATI and NVidia for the rights to pack in HL2 into video card boxes. ATI wins the auction for a rumored 6 million dollars. Nice job Valve!!! Way to pay down the HL2 development costs.

The real brilliance of this plan lies in the fact that this pack in deal won't hurt Valve's future sales of HL2. You see the packin/coupon offer with the ATI cards is for single player only! The crippled "Walmart sku" version of HL2. (Click this link for info!!)
People who buy a Radeon 9800XT are true gamers who probably will want to play multiplayer online, which they don't get with the coupon in their video card box. This means that the majority of coupon holders will have to buy the HL2 SP/MP version in order to play online. They could do that buying a retail copy or by upgrading thru Steam and paying money directly to Valve. But they will have to pay twice for the game!!

Effectively, Valve is preselling HL2 single player only game to a demographic that doesn't want this version.

So by giving a highly inaccurate ship date for HL2 Valve wins a "free" 6 million from ATI.

Valve wins big!! Gamers lose!!!


:dork: 2) Create an Install Base for Steam

Steam is a tough sell. How do you get gamers to install something which removes control from the gamer and give control to Valve.

In the old days gamers would buy a game on a CD and control everything. They had a hard copy of their game that they could install and play on any computer any time. They did not have to ask Valve's permision thru a steam account.

So Valve needs to create the Steam Install Base (remember the more people with steam installed the more possible money Valve can make off of those installed users)

Ways for Valve to create the Steam Install Base:

1) Use the HL2 hype created by the E3 demos by releasing the demo bink movies thru steam. People start signing up for steam to get these movies.

Valve then uses these bink movie downloaders as unpaid beta testers for steam which is another nice side benefit.

2) Stick to the Sept 30th release date - this is important!!! Valve needs you to feel pressure to install Steam because you think HL2 is actually coming out on Sept 30th. Remember [Install Base = Money for Valve] and [Bigger Install Base = More Money for Valve]

I for one would never in a million years have installed Steam if it wasn't for those bink movies.

My point is that Valve would like the largest possible install base for steam (part of their general long range business plan) and announcing HL2 at E3 and tossing out the Sept 30th release date definitely helped them move towards this goal.


:dork: 3) Motivate the HL2 development team to finish the game

The game has slipped, announcing the game a E3 is good way to put pressure on the HL2 team to finish it. Its a good way of showing them (development team) how much hype this game has, that despite falling behind schedule that HL2 can still be hugely successful. The personal rewards for the development team members will be untold riches, millions of copies of HL2/addons flying off the shelves/steam, making them lots of money. Valve is owned by Valve they are a private company. Those 14 hours days will pay off in a big financial way.


Now hurry up and finish the game!!!!


:dork: 4) Ensure for the best possible sales for CS:CZ

This ties in with goal 2) (steam install base)

Valve still has CS:CZ floating around. CS:CZ - it starts at Rogue, Valve takes it away from Rogue and works on it, then Valve gives it to Gearbox, then Valve takes it from Gearbox and gives it to Ritual, and now Valve takes it from Ritual and are working on it themselves, it goes gold apparently in Oct. 2003 and has now disappeared again. Valve really needs some good sales to make any money off of CS:CZ since it sounds like the develpment was costly.

Obviously if Hl2 comes out it will hurt sales of CS:CZ (they should have put it out a year ago). One way to help the sales of CS:CZ is to announce HL2 at E3!!!! You probably think that makes no logical sense but it does in fact make sense.

Valve was going to delay HL2 all along, but the HL2 Sept. 30th release date to created a lot of hype and focus on their company. Then when HL2 is officially delayed Valve quickly announces soon after that CS:CZ is gold.

This so smart!!! While all HL gamers/fans eyes are focused squarely on Valve software they announce CS:CZ. Effectively, they have maximized the number of people who will hear the announcement that it is coming out. Valve used the fallout of the HL2 hype to sell you CS:CZ.

This is where the install base (goal 2) created for Steam comes into play. I think Valve always intended for CS:CZ (not HL2) to be the first big test of the E-commerce component of Steam. Steam initially was not going to sell HL2 but rather sell CS:CZ. The HL2 hype has allowed Valve to create a tidy little Steam install base and now they can use Steam to sell CS:CZ to that same install base. Very smart plan!!!


So Why did Valve not announce the delay earlier???????

That would screw up Valve's goals 1) and 2).

Goal 1) depends on you the gamer believing all the hype and believing that the game would ship on Sept 30th. This allows Valve to get the largest possible auction amount for the pack in deal. No way Valve lets on about how unfinished HL2 really is. If Valve would have said the game is delayed in July, ATI would have walked away and signed on to pack in Max Payne 2/Call of Duty/Deus Ex2 or some other such title. Why would they pack HL2 if it wasn't ready? It appears as though ATI fell for the hype just like gamers did. At the time DOOM3 was still a possible 2003 release and ran a bit better on Nvidia hardware. ATI may have been worried that Nvidia would promote their cards using DOOM3, Naturally ATI would like to tie in with a hot game like HL2 in order to promote their graphics cards. Obviously ATI saw an opportunity to drive a nail into Nvidia's coffin. Its all about marketing and what better marketing tool than the crazy huge HL2 hype machine. The HL2 benches clearly favour ATI in a big way and the insane HL2 hype was even bigger than the DOOM3 hype from a year ago. ATI has been gaining market share on Nvidia and doing the packin deal with Valve seemed pretty logical way to boost sales during the Christmas time frame.

That is why Valve could not tell HL2 fans of the delay because of the deal with ATI. I am not sure that ATI fully realized that HL2 would not make it in 2003. I bet they are not too happy with the turn of events.

Also waiting to the last minute to announce the delay means a bigger steam install base. Keep the hype going as long as possible use it to promote Steam. Then when CS:CZ is announced there will be plenty of Steam users installed and ready to buy it.


Ok, I wrote a lot, sorry!

I don't believe HL2 was ever supposed to be a 2003 release or even a 2004 release. It is my prediction that HL2 will ship in April 2005 at the earliest (but it could be later if more bad stuff happens) :bounce:

 

[bgesley426]

2004 right?

 

[Keeson]

Originally posted by bgesley426
2004 right?

No, very definitely 2005! Look Valve has an impossibly high standard for quality. :cheese:


Here's what Gabe Newell said in the Gamespot HL2 developer interview around E3 2003:

"as a gamer I'm kind of disappointed with the lack of progress in PC gaming I think were seeing a lot of fairly uninsprired rehashes of experiences that people have already had"

(with HL1) "they were getting around 40-50 hours for a typical core game player and that's what were going to see with HL2"



Valve is shooting for a very high standard. 40 - 50 hours of truly original first person shoot action is quite a bit. Think of the development time.

Look at Max Payne 2 people are getting 10 hours out of it, Valve is going to have to spend some time in development in order to give us gamers 40 hours *plus* multiplayer to boot.

Valve is not close to being finished HL2, to deliver 40 hours worth will take them to 2005, it is only logical.

Please think it through logically. :dork:

 

[DiSTuRbEd]

Originally posted by Keeson
No, very definitely 2005! Look Valve has an impossibly high standard for quality. :cheese:


Here's what Gabe Newell said in the Gamespot HL2 developer interview around E3 2003:

"as a gamer I'm kind of disappointed with the lack of progress in PC gaming I think were seeing a lot of fairly uninsprired rehashes of experiences that people have already had"

(with HL1) "they were getting around 40-50 hours for a typical core game player and that's what were going to see with HL2"



Valve is shooting for a very high standard. 40 - 50 hours of truly original first person shoot action is quite a bit. Think of the development time.

Look at Max Payne 2 people are getting 10 hours out of it, Valve is going to have to spend some time in development in order to give us gamers 40 hours *plus* multiplayer to boot.

Valve is not close to being finished HL2, to deliver 40 hours worth will take them to 2005, it is only logical.

Please think it through logically. :dork:

You sir are a complete dumbass that should be removed.

 

[Keeson]

Originally posted by DiSTuRbEd
You sir are a complete dumbass that should be removed.

So I am a dumbass for pointing out:

• Valve has a very high quality standard for its games.
• Valve wants 40 - 50 hours of gameplay for HL2 - direct quote from Gabe
• Max Payne 2 is 10 hours of gameplay, Max took what 2 year of development with no multiplayer
• That it take a long time to develop quality FPS content.
• Therefore HL2 won't be seen in 2004 but rather 2005.

Am I really so off base!!????? :dork:

 

[bgesley426]

They worked on MP2 for about a year and half. They've been working on HL2 for 5 years. So no your 2005 idea is quote: "dumbass and should be removed"

 

[Keeson]

Originally posted by bgesley426
They worked on MP2 for about a year and half. They've been working on HL2 for 5 years. So no your 2005 idea is quote: "dumbass and should be removed"

Ok lets do the math:

MP2 ----> 10 hours gameplay in 1.5 years
HL2 ----> 40 hours gameplay = 4 X 1.5 years = 6 years

HL2 has been developed for 5 years, therefore they still have a year to go which means 2005!!!!!!! :dork:


(let's be honest Valve haven't really put 5 years into HL2, you have to
subtract all the wasted development hours spent on TF2, support for HL1, initial time spent developing the HL2 engine, facial animation system, I mean how much actual time was spent making levels/gameplay and playtesting, certainly not 5 years, I mean MP2 just uses a tweaked MP1 engine with nicer textures and it took them 1.5 years for 10 hours of content)

 

[PvtRyan]

Dude, that is probably the stupidest equation I've ever seen. Actually making the gameplay and the levels took up maybe 2 years of their time, they pretty much made HL the game (not the technology) in a little more than one year. Creating the technology behind the game and tweaking it takes the most time.
I know plenty of games that have a 100+ hours of gameplay, and were created in months.

 

[DiSTuRbEd]

WTF? Are you seriously stupid in the head or something? I swear to god you are dumb.

 

[PvtRyan]

Originally posted by DiSTuRbEd
WTF? Are you seriously stupid in the head or something? I swear to god you are dumb.

Who are you talking to?

 

[Brian Damage]

Himself?

Joooookiiiiing!

I think early 2004... but I don't really mind when it comes out, as long as it's good.

 

[DiSTuRbEd]

I am talking to Keeson, his logic is completely moronic.

 

[TheSoupNazi]

change of subject

But damn, Max Payne was a truly amazing 10 hours. Maybe the best of my life.

 

[Frosty]

Damn straight! MP2 was fantastic, a little short, but excellent. I think it was the story that made it so addictive and fun, with all those little twists and turns. Who would've guessed?

Oh, and Vinnie in a Captain Baseballbat Boy costume. Very original.

 

[DiSTuRbEd]

VALVe could pull off 40 hrs of gameplay.

 

[glimmerman]

the truth?

The first casualty of really bad PR IS the truth.

And the first casualty of a bad development process , is bad PR.

So what do we have left?

Valve got greedy.
Valve got arrogant.
Valve let the development process slip... and slip.... and slip......
Valve generated some bad PR using ATI and NVidia, and got some cash in the bargain.
Valve told some porkies about Sept 30, and kept on telling them and kept on telling them, probably at the behest of Lombardi.
And then Valve slipped. Their security was up to crap, and someone got in.
And suddenly their "little secret" was out. HL2 was MONTHS away from completion. Gabe looks a little "tired and stressed" at the ATI 9800XT launch. And well he should. He's just auctioned off the rights to bundle his vapourware with a big graphics card player. Who's likely to be seriously pissed at being lied to in order to give up $6m for a launch which now looks like a damp squib.

And Lombardi goes very quiet all of a sudden. And Gabe blames the hacker/s for putting the development process back. Woops, Gabe. Did you think we're all idiots? Changing steam to prevent hacks probably shouldn't take more than a few man months, split between 2 or 3 developers probably 1 real month.

I guess the truth is a lot more obvious now.

Nothing was going to be ready in time. It was a hype bubble the likes of which we haven't seen since the tech bust of 2000. Well done, GG well-played Valve.

Oh, BTW when was CS:CZ meant to be out? Middle of last month was it? After all, it went GOLD on nov 8th? Right?

Chalk it up to another death by hype. CS:CZ will probably fail, not least because valve couldn't decide what the hell they wanted the game to look like, and kept switching developers, gametypes and design. Is there any talent LEFT at Valve at all? I respect the developers, but man, the management are a bunch of idiots.

And as for the PR? What "truth" will they be peddling next week?

Lets wait and see.

 

[Keeson]

Re: the truth?

Wow! Nice job summing up my thoughts from my really big post up above. (the one no one will touch with a 10 foot pole)

Any minute now people will be calling you a dumbass, Glimmerman for only seeing the truth!!! But I agree with you at least... :dork:

Originally posted by glimmerman
The first casualty of really bad PR IS the truth.

And the first casualty of a bad development process , is bad PR.

So what do we have left?

Valve got greedy.
Valve got arrogant.
Valve let the development process slip... and slip.... and slip......

I think Valve's problem was poor focus. At times, they don't seem to know what they want to do... If they had been squarely focused on HL2 from the day they released HL1 we'd have the game by now.

They've blown a crapload of development time/focus on TF2/Powerplay/Steam/CS:CZ all of which aren't successful (yet...). I think their team may have been too small to develop the depth and quality of game they are shooting for in HL2 and before they realized that more people were needed, they were behind schedule. They only had around 20 people to develop HL1, they now have 85 people.

They did some smaller projects over the last 5 years (likely profitable and low risk projects) OpFor, Blueshift, retail CS, retail DOD, console ports etc. All of these require some support from Valve and were at least somewhat of a distraction for Gabe and Co pulling attention away from HL2.

Valve generated some bad PR using ATI and NVidia, and got some cash in the bargain.
Valve told some porkies about Sept 30, and kept on telling them and kept on telling them, probably at the behest of Lombardi.
And then Valve slipped. Their security was up to crap, and someone got in.
And suddenly their "little secret" was out. HL2 was MONTHS away from completion. Gabe looks a little "tired and stressed" at the ATI 9800XT launch. And well he should. He's just auctioned off the rights to bundle his vapourware with a big graphics card player. Who's likely to be seriously pissed at being lied to in order to give up $6m for a launch which now looks like a damp squib.

Gabe was stressed at Alcatraz, that's a good point you make, very telling. Here is what he said there:

"I hate release dates because no matter how hard we try, we screw them up. We held back talking about our release date going into September 30 because I wanted to have a much clearer idea of what day we were going to ship on. Right now all we can say is holidays of this year, which to me feels really unfortunate. Our customers really want to know. They say, "Tell us what the date is going to be," and that's what they want to hear. They're fine with what the date is; they just want to know so they can plan accordingly. Right now it's for the holidays. I wish we had a clearer date to give people at this time. " - Gabe Newell, Sept 30th 2003


:dork: ATI meets their deadlines that's why they did a billion in business last year. They ship on time unlike Valve.

What's interesting is how on ATI's website you can barely find any mention of HL2 anymore (unlike in say Sept 2003). The focus for ATI is now their sponsorship of the HALO worldwide tournament. The product information for 9800XT/9600XT cards makes no mention of getting HL2 packed in the box. They seem to be distancing themselves from the whole HL2 mess. :x

Ya ATI is pissed all right! This is going to come back to haunt them as they just packed the equivalent of a "Duke Nukem Forever" coupon into their video card boxes.
Wait till people are screaming this summer, waving their coupons around "Where the **** is HL2". :bounce:

And Lombardi goes very quiet all of a sudden. And Gabe blames the hacker/s for putting the development process back. Woops, Gabe. Did you think we're all idiots? Changing steam to prevent hacks probably shouldn't take more than a few man months, split between 2 or 3 developers probably 1 real month.

I guess the truth is a lot more obvious now.

They are lucky the hacking incident happened to divert attention away from the truth of the HL2 development slippage.

Nothing was going to be ready in time. It was a hype bubble the likes of which we haven't seen since the tech bust of 2000. Well done, GG well-played Valve.

:dork: I like that analogy :cheers:

[/B]Oh, BTW when was CS:CZ meant to be out? Middle of last month was it? After all, it went GOLD on nov 8th? Right?

Chalk it up to another death by hype. CS:CZ will probably fail, not least because valve couldn't decide what the hell they wanted the game to look like, and kept switching developers, gametypes and design. Is there any talent LEFT at Valve at all? I respect the developers, but man, the management are a bunch of idiots.

And as for the PR? What "truth" will they be peddling next week?

Lets wait and see. [/B]

:dork: Here is an interesting quote:

"In a lot of ways--except for the fact that it's taken an unbelievably long time to do--Half-Life 2 has been a lot more fun for us than Half-Life." - Gabe Newell

The truth is making a killer game takes a long time these days. All developers are facing bigger budget, bigger teams, bigger management problems and spiralling development times. Though you'd be hard pressed to get Valve to admit that they are human and have fallen behind. They're not gaming gods yet.

So, if you think even just a little bit that HL2 is behind schedule, then please for anyone reading, try to understand why I think it will ship in 2005. :dozey:

 

[He@t!]

All i got to say to this post is .. Do Not Feed The Trolls

:stare: :E :stare: :E :stare: :E

 

[Keeson]

Originally posted by He@t!
All i got to say to this post is .. Do Not Feed The Trolls

:dork: I am not troll! I try to back up what I say with quotes and links and acknowledge the possibility that I could be wrong on some stuff.

:dork: Well, actually I see myself as a sort of visionary colossus, a maverick of all that is just and fair and above all else a purveyor and believer in truth.

:dork: Oh and I like cats too!!!

 

[bgesley426]

uh.... what?

 

[glimmerman]

keeson, just read you post, guess I should have read the thread from the beginning before letting go with my rant

Yeah, you raise quite a few interesting parallel thoughts However, I disagree about a shipdate in 2005, I reckon it HAS to be 2004 sometime. I'd say Valve are already in serious trouble with the fanbase (and remember the fanbase doesn't only consist of fanboys, which probably make a small minority, most of the fanbase are probably just ordinary joe's such as myself who enjoyed HL1, and are looking forward to HL2, but not *rabidly* so)

I think most of the fanbase is a bit pissed. And more importantly, I think the important parts of the fanbase are seriously pissed. I'm referring to journalists, magazine and online, and owners of fansites. These are the people who have the most to lose by believing the Valve PR and helping them hype the game. And these are the people who also play a large part in guiding the opinion of the fanbase. Valve have made a serious PR miscalculation by assuming that playing this game will raise their profile. In fact, if and when journos and others start getting pissed, you'll start to see sarcastic comments etc appearing in print and online about Valve, and then its just a short hop away from total hilarity when someone mentions Valve's name. An example? DNF? Its a byword for hype and bullsh*t now, and Valve is rapidly heading that way.

So my guess is that if Valve doesn't deliver say in the next 6 months, they are in danger of becoming a laughing stock. I think as it is, for the influential part of the fanbase, namely the publishing part, Valve is already a laughing stock.

 

[clarky003]

Valve wants 40 - 50 hours of gameplay for HL2 - direct quote from Gabe

Max Payne 2 is 10 hours of gameplay, Max took what 2 year of development with no multiplayer

That it take a long time to develop quality FPS content.

hmm, seems your forgetting one thing.. their work force. who knows how intense the work was, who knows how much they got done in whatever space of time.. sounds like your playing it safe to me, basing it on comparisons with other,, completely different titles that use older graphic engines... maybe your right.. but maybe youve blown it right out of the water. (again) like so many others.. its done when its done... (how many times have people said that ). any way, the origional coded game is probably sitting on a shelf somewhere giving Duke Nukem Forever a hug.:x

 

[PvtRyan]

Re: the truth?

Originally posted by glimmerman
The first casualty of really bad PR IS the truth.

And the first casualty of a bad development process , is bad PR.

So what do we have left?

Valve got greedy.
Valve got arrogant.
Valve let the development process slip... and slip.... and slip......
Valve generated some bad PR using ATI and NVidia, and got some cash in the bargain.
Valve told some porkies about Sept 30, and kept on telling them and kept on telling them, probably at the behest of Lombardi.
And then Valve slipped. Their security was up to crap, and someone got in.
And suddenly their "little secret" was out. HL2 was MONTHS away from completion. Gabe looks a little "tired and stressed" at the ATI 9800XT launch. And well he should. He's just auctioned off the rights to bundle his vapourware with a big graphics card player. Who's likely to be seriously pissed at being lied to in order to give up $6m for a launch which now looks like a damp squib.

And Lombardi goes very quiet all of a sudden. And Gabe blames the hacker/s for putting the development process back. Woops, Gabe. Did you think we're all idiots? Changing steam to prevent hacks probably shouldn't take more than a few man months, split between 2 or 3 developers probably 1 real month.

I guess the truth is a lot more obvious now.

Nothing was going to be ready in time. It was a hype bubble the likes of which we haven't seen since the tech bust of 2000. Well done, GG well-played Valve.

Oh, BTW when was CS:CZ meant to be out? Middle of last month was it? After all, it went GOLD on nov 8th? Right?

Chalk it up to another death by hype. CS:CZ will probably fail, not least because valve couldn't decide what the hell they wanted the game to look like, and kept switching developers, gametypes and design. Is there any talent LEFT at Valve at all? I respect the developers, but man, the management are a bunch of idiots.

And as for the PR? What "truth" will they be peddling next week?

Lets wait and see.

Nice detective work Sherlock!

Well... if you forget it DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE.

If the game wasn't anywhere near ready and had no chance of being ready in 2003, Valve could have just kept their mouths shut at the E3 and keep on developing in secret revealing it at ECTS or E3 2004. There was no need to reveal the project if it wasn't even near completion, so why did they? And do you honestly think ATi makes a 6 million dollar deal, supposed to promote their top of the line XT's, with Valve for a game that is nowhere near completion and without knowing when it'll be released? You think ATi is made up out of idiots?

And then to the hacking, well.... Valve never blamed the hackers for the delay, they even said that 1: The hacking wasn't the source of the delay (beginning of October) 2: The game wouldn't have been released in 2003 even if the hacking didn't take place (end of November)
So, where do you see Valve making the hackers their scapegoats?
So what the real reason of the delay was, we can only guess. Maybe make some clearance for CS:CZ to make sure it makes some money (you can't blame Valve for that, it stays a company who wants to make profit from products they invested millions in) or Steam wasn't ready (which is Valves fault for not knowing this sooner, unless some big server provider took back their servers at the last moment)

 

[glimmerman]

Re: Re: the truth?

Originally posted by PvtRyan
Nice detective work Sherlock!

Well... if you forget it DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE.
]

It does if you look at it in the context of Valve taking a gamble on generating hype early. They did something similar with HL1 didn't they? And that paid off quite handsomely. With a nice added bonus of $6mil this time around.

If the game wasn't anywhere near ready and had no chance of being ready in 2003, Valve could have just kept their mouths shut at the E3 and keep on developing in secret revealing it at ECTS or E3 2004. There was no need to reveal the project if it wasn't even near completion, so why did they? And do you honestly think ATi makes a 6 million dollar deal, supposed to promote their top of the line XT's, with Valve for a game that is nowhere near completion and without knowing when it'll be released? You think ATi is made up out of idiots?

ATI liked the hype Valve was generating, so they jumped on the bandwagon, buying in to the hype: when asked for demos and such, Valve mutters something along the lines of "Well, it's top secret, so we can't show you much. Instead, here's a demo we prepared earlier. For E3. Look at all that fancy AI huh? And here's another smaller demo we can show you now, that no-one else has seen. We think it will be ready by Sept 30. How much is all this hype worth to you? $6mil sounds about right to us. And we'll throw in a free Nvidia diss."

Let me ask you a question: do you think ATI would have stumped up 6million for a launch that has a coupon in the box, with no explicit delivery date? A launch that was specifically focussed on HL2? Especially if they KNEW that game wouldn't be delivered? A launch that now looks like a damp squib, leaving ATI with egg all over the faces, desperately scrabbling to save the marketing value of the coupon by allowing HL1 and counterstrike to be downloaded through Steam? Do *you* think Ati is made up out of idiots?

And then to the hacking, well.... Valve never blamed the hackers for the delay, they even said that 1: The hacking wasn't the source of the delay (beginning of October) 2: The game wouldn't have been released in 2003 even if the hacking didn't take place (end of November)
So, where do you see Valve making the hackers their scapegoats?
So what the real reason of the delay was, we can only guess. Maybe make some clearance for CS:CZ to make sure it makes some money (you can't blame Valve for that, it stays a company who wants to make profit from products they invested millions in) or Steam wasn't ready (which is Valves fault for not knowing this sooner, unless some big server provider took back their servers at the last moment)

Hmm I didn't know that Valve had specifically not blamed the hacker. But there sure was a big hoohaa from Valve after the incident, hyping the community to come to their aid. Looks like a severe case of misdirection at the time in any case.
And why so late in the admissions then? Why not be upfront immediately after the launch/theft date and say 1) It would have been delayed anyway 2) It wasn't the hacker who screwed the launch. And besides isn't there an inherent paradox there? I thought a "lot of work" had to go into making steam hacker proof after the theft? How does that fit in with 1) The hacking wasn't the source of the delay?
And wouldn't it have been a WHOLE LOT better in the 3 weeks leading to the launch to just say "guys, its going to be late" instead of constantly hyping and pushing it to the point where release day arrives... and you can hear the sound of a pin drop from valve... if they even decided to drop a pin. But no, Lombardi has to get his squeaky little voice in, in the weeks leading up to the release going: Yeah, it'll release on Sept 30.


So I stand by my theory: Valve wanted early hype. They specifically WANTED CNN recognition (and got it). Thats big player stuff. A big gamble. I think the gamble is in the process of blowing up in their faces.

Lombardi got a bit too big for his britches. Gabe was stupid enough to listen to him.

I hope Lombardi gets his arse handed to him on a plate.

 

[Keeson]

Re: Re: the truth?

Originally posted by PvtRyan
Nice detective work Sherlock!

Well... if you forget it DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE.

But you see it does make sense. If Valve sits on HL2 till E3 2004 they lose big, key benefits to themselves:

1) Valve loses the 6 million from ATI. They need this to pay their development costs and continue their "self-funded" HL2 project (which isn't really going to be out soon, a secret they don't want you to know)

2) Valve loses an opportunity to build a huge Steam install base. Valve whole business model revolves around this thing.

So sitting on HL2 and keeping quiet would have cost Valve money and business advantage. The huge E3 2003 hype they did in fact create allowed Valve to accomplish some very important goals.

So Valve comes out of the obscurity of their quiet, cozy, little cave, creates incredible hype at E3. They sell the hype to ATI for 6 million while creating a tidy steam install base. And when Sept 30th comes along, they stealthily slither back into the cave, slipping back into the comfortable obscurity from whence they came.

:dork: All is quiet now, the crickets are happily chirping...

 

[Xaxor]

Don't have anything to really add, but being a fan of the X-Files, I must post this.

"The truth is out there."

Sorry for being off-topic and slightly annoying.