Who will win the election?

Who will win the election?

  • Kerry

    Votes: 25 65.8%

  • Bush

    Votes: 13 34.2%
  • Total voters
    38
Vigilante

Vigilante

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Okay, I've seen many threads about who you all want to win the election. Lets put all that aside, and post who you think will win, not matter what your affiliation is.

personally, at first I thought that Bush would win, but its looking more towards Kerry every day. So I do think kerry will win.

Sorry if this has been done before (did a search and came up with nothin)

EDIT: Dammit i forgot to make it a poll! can a mod please fix that for me?
 
:O Wow! I can't believe another thread has been created on this... :eek:

Anywho...Kerry.
 
Probably Bush. Americans are a scared bunch and seem reluctant to let go of the gunsligner from Texas.
 
User Name said:
:O Wow! I can't believe another thread has been created on this... :eek:

Anywho...Kerry.
Click to expand...
numerous on who you want to win, not on woh you THINK will win.
 
Vigilante said:
numerous on who you want to win, not on woh you THINK will win.
Click to expand...
Oh...and a whole new thread needed to be created just for that small margin of difference of opinion. Think and Want. :rolling:
 
I honestly think bush will win. The polls often seen on TV and CNN are polls of only 1000 people or so. I think it will be close, but i don't think it will be as close as last election. People have an understanding of bush and what he does, voting in kerry to be president, the people would be taking a chance.
 
Good questoin. For sometime it did appear that Bush would win in the end. But with the recent momentum gained by Kerry after the first debate and the fact that he seems to be closing the gap in many battleground states I'm going to have to say I think it's entirely possible that he will win. The reason I say this is that I think it will be quite difficult for Bush to reverse Kerry's momentum so late in the race. But of course it's so close at this point there's really no way of knowing until election time.

If we'll even know then either. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6215295/site/newsweek/#survey
 
I say we have a contest kinda like a bet. People bet who is going to win the election and the winners receive bragging rights. The losers have to write a 1000 word essay on why the canidate they voted for lost. I did that on an old forum 4 years ago, it was pretty humerous, especially because of how close the voting was.
 
well.. i fear i'm wrong, but i voted kerry anyway simply because of his momentum. it's so close right now, that i couldn't think of a better criterion :| that said, i generally expect the worst, so while my mind says kerry, my revolted heart whisper "bush" in the cold darkness of my soul :(

but i voted kerry :)
 
I would be interested in seeing Kerry elected to really see if he is the better candidate like everybody says.

I still haven't made up my mind though. I want to make up my mind soon so I can fill in my mail-in ballot.
 
blahblahblah said:
I would be interested in seeing Kerry elected to really see if he is the better candidate like everybody says.

I still haven't made up my mind though. I want to make up my mind soon so I can fill in my mail-in ballot.
Click to expand...

The world would end in the four years Kerry would be president. I dont wanna see it! At least with bush it'll have taken 8 years.
 
Raziaar said:
The world would end in the four years Kerry would be president. I dont wanna see it! At least with bush it'll have taken 8 years.
Click to expand...

bush is the most dangerous man alive
 
blahblahblah said:
I would be interested in seeing Kerry elected to really see if he is the better candidate like everybody says.
Click to expand...

Well, I wish everybody was saying that. :p You are getting sleepy, very sleepy.....

blahblahblah said:
I still haven't made up my mind though. I want to make up my mind soon so I can fill in my mail-in ballot.
Click to expand...

Good luck in your decision. :) You now are in a deep trance................vote for Kerry. ; )
 
The polls often seen on TV and CNN are polls of only 1000 people or so.
Click to expand...

This is actually a good sample size: as long as the sample is random, 1000 is good enough to generalize to the entire population of millions.

The problem is that the samples aren't random anymore: there is no good way to draw a random sample, and no good way to judge who will actually vote on Nov. 2. So the reality is that the polls are probably way off: not because of the 1000 people, but because of WHICH 1000 people were polled.

For instance, many of the polls recently have been skewed because the sample is something like 39% Republican, 33% Democrat, and then the rest independants. But in reality, on election day, about the same number of Democrats vote as Republicans, if not a little more Democrats. So such polls are immediately suspect, because they don't reflect the reality of actual elections. However, they can still show trends, and those trends favor Kerry: he's shot up almost 10 points in the polls than had him way down. If you already believe as I do that those polls were wrong because they were skewed Republican, then that means he's actually doing better than anyone realizes.

The other major factor in his favor are the field programs (like what I'm doing). In swing states like Ohio 10 TIMES as many people in highly Democratic areas have registered to vote for the first time as people in Republican areas. That's a massive advantage that could add as much as 3 or 4 percentage points to Kerry on election day, but isn't really shown in the polls. Likewise, the efforts of field programs isn't obvious in polling data either. Field is going to litterally yank Kerry voters out and get them to the polls in large numbers, even if they normally wouldn't have voted. The Bush people can do something of the same thing, but it's much much harder since their supporters tend to be isolated, rural, and harder to contact en masse. Most polls in 2000 had Gore down right before the election, but he won the election overall. In Ohio, the key swing state in this race, he went from 11 points down to only 3 points down, and that was without Gore ever campaigning there and having pulled his entire field staff out a month before the election. Just the unions alone pulled him up by 8 points. This year Ohio has the unions, the largest field program ever seen, all the crazy 527 orgs like ACT and MoveOn: all of them driving huge turnouts. Turnout is what makes Democrats win (when people vote, they generally vote Democratic: it's only because of the electoral college and other such gerrymandering that Republicans are currently dominating national offices)

Finally, the race is sure to be very close no matter what: but the undecided voters usually tend to break for the challenger at the very end by an almost 2 to 1 margin. Kerry also has a reputation for getting better and tougher as time goes on, and we're already seeing that.

Given that Kerry and Edwards clearly dominated the positive momentum out of all three debates so far (even the ones they called "draws" actually were only draws in an overall sense: among swing voters, they won big time all three times, and that's what matters) and have almost erased the damage of the "flip-flopper" meme that die-hard Republicans keep desperately repeating, given that almost everyone is starting to agree that Iraq was a disaster of poor planning and badly implemented policy just like Kerry has always maintained, things are looking very bad for Bush.

Their campaign is desperate. Their calls are inflitrated by Democrats. They are leaking money and their party discipline is falling apart. Longtime Republicans are jumping ship and saying that Bush is a lousy conservative. (heck, the only reason the job numbers aren't much worse than the current still pretty awful state is because Bush has grown the size of GOVERNMENT employment faster than any President since FDR's New Deal!)
 
gh0st said:
theres a man who enjoys his turkey.
Click to expand...

a little too much ...notice his face looks like a glazed donut? nuff said :naughty:
 
SpuD said:
I fixed it for you...


and Kerry.
Click to expand...


:O You fixed the poll for kerry?

Scanald! Sca- Who are you?

Gandalf the Gr-

I said SCANDAL!



Ahem...

I think Bush will win...or, get into the whitehouse in any case.
 
I think Bush will win, who wants 2 laywers running this country? Thats sum scary stuff there!
 
I don't want Bush to win. I mean, he didn't even know he owned a small lumber company (think back to the 2nd debate). I mean, if he forgot he owned a January issue of Sports Illustrated, or a lava lamp, it'd be forgivable, but not a whole freaking company.

Either that, or he did know, and he lied to America just to look like a smug bastard on TV.
 
Mattigus said:
I don't want Bush to win. I mean, he didn't even know he owned a small lumber company (think back to the 2nd debate). I mean, if he forgot he owned a January issue of Sports Illustrated, or a lava lamp, it'd be forgivable, but not a whole freaking company.

Either that, or he did know, and he lied to America just to look like a smug bastard on TV.
Click to expand...

http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx@docID=275.html

Not as clear cut as you think. ;)
 
I've decided that you should crown me your king. I can shoot awesomeness from my fingers. That's how cool I am.
 
so the popular candidates for the 04 election are me and a duck.

That duck drove 5 businesses into the ground, has been conveniently witnessed by people who do not have an easily verifiable connection to me or my money to have connections with the Soviet-Nazi-Fanatic party, and has been caught cheating on its wife 4,598 times
CYBERSHEEP '04
 
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