Release Date Rage Article

[Democritus]

I wrote and posted this to the Internet almost five years ago after HL1's release date shenanigans. Maybe some of you old timers recognize it. Seemed like a good time to resurrect it -- though you'll note the dated references. Barely too long for 1 post, so I split it into two parts. It's a longish read, but ejoy.
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[PART 1]
Release Date Rage

Anyone who gets excited over the coming of a new game has already taken one step toward the mania I will term "release date rage." As inevitably happens, games don't come out when Jim Bob the marketing agent or Stan the local Electronic Boutiques stiff says it will. Having lived through the release date roller coaster with several games, among them Jedi-Knight and Half-Life, I've begun to get disgusted by the reactions of the impatient horde who, justified or not, fly into this release date rage at the drop of a hat. Do the following phrases sound familiar?

-!@#$ them! If [Insert Company] can't get their game out on time, then I'm going to buy [insert competitor's product].

-Well, that SUCKS! I'm leaving this community and going to [insert other gaming community]. At least THEY have shareware to play.

-What the ^$&#? How can [insert company] betray their loyal fans this way? SCREW THEM!

-I'm gonna beat up somebody at [insert company]. Look out [company], here I come!

-Somebody at [insert company] really has their head up their butt. I mean, miss a release date by [insert number of months]? Hello!!!

-Let's face it, they lied to us. THEY LIED! They said [this date] and now it's [that date]. They are LIARS!

And that's just the people over 20! Once disappointment sets in to some of the more hormonally volatile teen crown, things really get out of hand, including pointed insults to parentage, intelligence, and sexual proficiency and/or preference.

The funny thing is this: if any of this ranting and raving meant anything, it might actually work to motivate gaming companies to better their treatment of fans. But it doesn't work. Why? Because as soon as the game comes out (or two weeks later, whichever comes first) the same upset, disgruntled, people all tip-toe back to the forums and the chat rooms ready for another round of disappointment. When the game does come out, they’re the first ones in line at the store.

Hence, game developers know that all this yelling and screaming and cursing and flame mailing is nothing to worry about, and life goes on as usual -- meaning release date guesses are ridiculously inaccurate and they'll put the game out when they darn well please (i.e. "when it's done").

So what's the fan to do? Well, the fan needs to understand that release dates given by companies, especially early ones, are wrong -- really wrong. If you haven't figured that one out yet (duh), you should flame mail yourself and call yourself a moron. I can't remember if any game EVER came out on time. Any software title at all, for that matter.

What we fans need is a formula for understanding game release dates and the variables in it. Once that first release date comes out, just use the following steps to calculate the actual release date. All variables are explained below:

1. Get the company's development time estimate in Months
2. Calculate the following: X = [OPM + HMD + SFED + W!D + GSSD]
3. Calculate Y = [BOT+ RST]
4. Original Time Estimate + X + Y = actual development time in months

OPM: Optimistic Programmer Miscalculation
OPM = (Original Time Estimate in Months * .7)
I've yet to meet a serious male programmer that doesn’t think he can program something in about half the time that it will really take. "Hey Bill the programmer," lead production designer says, "how long do you think it will take you to program a realistic physics model for the entire universe?" "Phaw!" Bill replies in a testosterone surge, "I'll get that done in a couple weeks, then we can spend the rest of the time tweaking multiplayer, which will only take a couple of days to code."

Lead designers and bureaucrats, for some reason, must believe this crap, make release dates, and then get shocked when Bill hasn't got diddly to show a year later. After two years go by, everybody starts to hate Bill, because he never, EVER, seems to get anywhere and sits around acting like he's the persecuted one because, "nobody understands how hard it is." Least of all him.

HMD: Hype Machine Delay
HMD = (OPM / 4)
Of course we all know that it's all about hype these days. Hints dropped in chat areas, tantalizing screen shots, juicy lists of features, refusals to talk about "certain aspects" of the game . . . aaaaah. Spongy fans soak it all in, shelling out dollars years ahead of time in frenzied anticipation. Well, companies spend time to maintain this hype. They show up at every major expo they can, sucking up the fan adoration and enjoying the exotic locations. They let people visit their offices. They do interviews despite the fact they just repeat the same old facts everyone knows and answer the same dumb questions for each interview. In the mean time, another release date slides by. No matter. Even a sliding release date is a form of hype! After all, it gets the game mentioned for free on all the major gaming sites, usually with the word "highly anticipated" in front of it.

 

[Democritus]

[PART 2]
SFED: Stupid Fan Email Delay
SFED ( .25 ) * (HMD)
In an attempt to make it seem like they're doing "PR" work, some game developers actually answer stupid fan email. Gabe Newell recently mentioned he got 200 a week asking when the release date of Half-Life was. The really sad thing is that there a literally thousands of stupid fans out there who really believe they're going to get a release date or some special information before anyone else in the community does.

Of course, release date question messages aren't all. Then come the adoring fan emails, "like I just wanted to tell you guys that you're the coolest and your game is gonna rock;" the irate fan email, "$#%@ you! Eat @#%! I really wanted drive-able vehicles in the game!;" followed by questions that are answered everywhere on the Web but clueless dork can't find it, "Will your game run on my Pentium 75?" All this stupid email, once again, erodes the productivity of the developer. I wouldn't be surprised if it made the developers hate their fans after a while.

W!D: Whoops! Delay
W!D = Best Guess. Too variable to call.
Game developers aren't perfect. They make big, bad, ugly mistakes. While developers don't reveal these mistakes to us because it would erode their "image," I can only imagine some of the great statements we have never heard:

· "You mean this isn't a Mac game?"
· "3D engine? I don't know anything about that!"
· "Why do the textures have to be 64X64? What's wrong with 54 X 38?"
· Nah! Let's not add multiplayer support. It's just a fad."

And so on. The delays make us angry, but after all, developers are only human.

GSSD: Game Suddenly Sucks Dilemma
Option 1: GSSD = 6 months
Option 2: No time added
Technology keeps on progressing, and for some developers, waking up in the morning could suddenly mean their game sucks. Imagine the utter sinking feeling of talking up your game, spending thousands of dollars, saying it's the greatest thing . . . and then buying one off the shelf that's better six months before yours is even supposed to come out (*cough* Daikatana *cough*). Ouch. This has one of two effects on development, neither good: (1) Developer decides to beef the game up with new technology (can anyone say, Duke Nukem Forever), setting the progress of the game back months, or (2) deciding to keep claiming it's the greatest thing ever anyway, spending more time on the Hype Machine, but saving time on development because they rush the product out the door, bugs and all. Either way, time is lost, though option 2 is the least time consuming, especially if consumers get wind of the truth.

BOT: Burn Out Time
BOT = X * .1
Let's face it, work on any project for two or three years and you really start to get bored of it, even hate it. Most high school students don't understand this since they do nothing worthwhile that takes longer than 30 minutes to complete. Having worked in the software industry writing 300 page manuals, I know there are days when I would have done just about ANYTHING other than what I was supposed to do. The thought process goes something like this:

"Ugh, if I have to see this one more time . . . Wait! I need to go to the DMV! Wahoo! And the gutters, I need to muck them out! YES! And gee, I wonder what kind of cool stuff is under my fridge?" And so on. For the game developer, this happens, too. Fortunately, while most of this time is wasted on trivialities and inane and perverse conversations with other burnt-out people, some developers spend this time answering Stupid Fan Email, thus subtracting some from the development time.

RST: Relationship Skid Time
RST = X*.1
Developing games can be hard on one's personal life. After about a year of working 12-14 hour days, wives, husbands, and lovers all get pretty irate -- especially when the developers can't remember their beloveds' names. Not only that, after a year of working a tough schedule, one begins to notice every little bad thing about one's co-workers. "Boy, Fred sure pounds on that keyboard" "Hasn't Bob heard of the new innovation called DEODERANT?!!" "Why do I always have to make the coffee?" Sooner or later, it explodes like dynamite in a hefty-bag full of spaghetti and everyone's problems get splattered around for everyone else to deal with. Precious development time flies out the window until everyone can stand each other again.


There are other variables we could throw in, such as "Meaningless Meetings with Bureaucracy" time, but the above pretty much cover the big time sinkholes. Thus, if we were to take a game, say, that started development in November of 1996 and was supposed to come out in November of 1997, we would figure the release date as follows if they had no GSSD and a 1 month W!D:

1.Original development time estimate = 12 months
2.X =[8.4 + 2.1 + .525 + 2 + 0] = 13.25
3.Y =[ 1.325 + 1.325] = 2.65
4.12 + 13.25 + 2.65 = 28 months (rounded up)

Hence, the game would REALLY be coming out in March of 1999. Admittedly, my formula is very pessimistic. But I figure if you don't listen to the developers release date and only listen to one figured with the formula, you'll be happy because the game will either come out early or on time. Hence, the end of release date rage.

 

[genocide604]

uh oh, *dread overcomes my body*... teens are dangerous!

 

[merc]

i didnt read any of that but it was very long and looks important... translation into one sentence please?

 

[Dalith]

I wish I weren't tired, or I would have read it all..

 

[InsertNameHere]

Great post democritus. I especially liked the formulas at the bottom.

The funny thing I see in these forums is denial. No one will admit that there's a possibility the game is delayed, however remote that possibility is. I see threads such as 'Gaming Bliss on the 30' and 'It will come out Sept 30' just for people to reassure themselves.

 

[BaNDiT]

That was a good read, my favorite part was when the little chocolate bunny was stabbed and the majical kingdom was saved forever.

 

[Democritus]

Originally posted by merc
i didnt read any of that but it was very long and looks important... translation into one sentence please?

It is long, but not terribly important. Skip it until you are REALLY bored or REALLY sick of all the other threads on the board.

 

[Democritus]

Originally posted by BaNDiT
That was a good read, my favorite part was when the little chocolate bunny was stabbed and the majical kingdom was saved forever.

Sorry, I had to edit that part out for space reasons, so you're the only one that got to read it.

 

[merc]

lol

 

[DigitalAssassin]

lol, never underestimate the minds of people with WAY too much time on their hands. Good post.

 

[spitcodfry]

Originally posted by InsertNameHere
Great post democritus. I especially liked the formulas at the bottom.

The funny thing I see in these forums is denial. No one will admit that there's a possibility the game is delayed, however remote that possibility is. I see threads such as 'Gaming Bliss on the 30' and 'It will come out Sept 30' just for people to reassure themselves.

I think it is more optimism than denial. Let's look at some of the reasons for suspecting a 'possible' delay:

1. Neither Vivendi nor Valve have made a statement of any kind yet about the release date other than the intial one given at E3, and again in late August at ECTS.

2. PHL moderator Kevin 'Fragmaster' Bowen continually rants in his Geiger Counter about how it'll be delayed...adding more to the community's confusion. The only evidence (if you can call it that) that he's provided thus far for why it's delayed is a supposed leaked e-mail he got from a press magazine...that stated that Valve's PR director Doug Lombardi, back in July ( before the ECTS announcement), told press magazines to push back their coverage in lieu of more time needed in development. People speculate that this was done on the business end of things for marketing purposes, and was not released to the public for such a reason.

3. Gabe's evasive and tight-lipped manner regarding all queries involving the game's release.

4. Little to no advertising for the game (magazine features/exclusives, online previews, magazine ads etc).

Feel free to add any I left out. IMO what it boils down to is speculation...I won't believe a snippet of what I read, hear, or see regarding the release unless it comes from the lion's maw; in a word, Valve. If it's delayed it's delayed...and this post was worthless because right as I'm typing this I'm sure someone is creating another 'My uncle's brother's friend who works for VU said' thread. It will never end...at least until the game comes out...and then there'll be complaints aplenty about the game on here...and speculation as to when TF2, DOD2, and CS2 will ship. My 2 cents for what it's worth.

 

[dfc05]

"They let people visit their offices. "
"In an attempt to make it seem like they're doing "PR" work, some game developers actually answer stupid fan email. "

Oh my... the fact that you wrote this five years ago makes it very, very disturbing.

 

[ub3rbr0k3]

good read! Besides the "accidental reasons," I have to say, delaying a game is one fine way to attract more people. Can we say "publicity++?" "lost jewel?" "A big fish that got away?"

I mean, then think of all the forumgoer's outrage in every forum..... Great stuff for the company. In fact if I was in charge, I'll be delaying the game even if it's done.

 

[Curator]

At worst it will be out around October 7th. Just keep your pants on everyone. Patience is a virtue.

 

[Rico]

Interesting post, i for one try to believe it will come out on the set date but im sure it's not 100% possible. This is one of the most educational "delay" threads i have read as of late, and believe me, i have read a LOT of them.

Been lurking these forums ever since i saw fragmaster post only news about the "delay" on PHL instead of posting all HL2 related news (and not just the ones who support his biased opinion).

Anyways, good read, even if it goes against what i hope will happen

 

[Ares]

Ah, I remember back then. 1337 speak and immaturity in online games (especially CS) wasn't rampant back then. The good ol' days. Heck, the early betas of CS were bliss because it was new, it was fun, and it was bearable!

 

[RhapSidious]

Originally posted by Democritus
It is long, but not terribly important. Skip it until you are REALLY bored or REALLY sick of all the other threads on the board.

I thought it was a great read. Isn't it ironic how something written for HL1 would apply exactly to HL2.

The dated references were about the only thing that kept reminding me that you weren't talking about HL2. History really does repeate itself.

 

[mrchimp]

that was a good post but I don't think it's going to stop anyone getting angry, although it does point out why games get set back quite well.

What I can't understand is why you have never met a male programer who can't predict how long it's going to take him to do something. Before judgeing how long it's going to take me to program anything, i always take the level of complexity into account first by quickly trying to figure out the basics of how i'm going to do it in my head, if I can't figure out how I'm going to do it striat away (for example a physics project like you suggested) then I would simply refuse to give an estimate on how long it's going to take untill i had atleast some idea of how to do it. Due to the fact I'm supposedly a sloppy proggramer who doesn't do any planning, I would think a proffetional proggramer with years of experience would atleast be able to make a prediction as good as mine, as long as they assume there going to go massively wrong at some point.

Still it was a good post even if a little synical.

 

[MoJo|Night]

I'm a male programmer with a physics degree. When someone asks how long something will take in most companies you have several factors to consider.

1. Can I do it?
2. Will I get sacked if i can't?
3. My bosses have no clue, is my time being charged to a client?
4. if 3 = yes then can I make some moey out of this for the company?
5. if 3 = no then best try to keep my job and say I can do it soon.
6. How big is 6 inches anyway?

 

[Gunner]

Haha great stuff Democritus : )

And Spit you need to lighten up, you're starting to sound like all the other fanatics here ; )

 

[Roceh]

No Steam Pre-load, no 30th Sept Release?

If theres no steam HL2 preload beginng today, then theres no sept 30th release? At least according to the information spitcodfry supplied... This correct?

 

[-JeZ-]

Remeber that PCZ has a review in thir October issue release on (I think) 16th of October. At least they are confidant of getting hold of the finished game by then.

 

[MrD]

LOL! damn good read

 

[Syko]

Re: No Steam Pre-load, no 30th Sept Release?

Originally posted by Roceh
If theres no steam HL2 preload beginng today, then theres no sept 30th release? At least according to the information spitcodfry supplied... This correct?

Sure, if you say weeks have 7 days in them They could claim "business week" (which would be absolutely retarded since there would only be FIVE days for the world to download the damn thing) and release the predownload on Friday...

...or never.

Hey, when did the original Half-Life come out? November 15th or something? Isn't that the date all the retailers are saying now? Hm. I remember back in that PC Gamer HL2 interview, PC Gamer said something about how it's funny that the 5-year anniversary of HL1 is a few months after Sept. 30, and Erik Johnson or whoever was being interviewed said, "It's funny how that works out, isn't it?" And I remember being scared of a delay THEN, lol

-Syko

 

[TAZ]

I hope HL2 gets delayed til 2005 so only the mature people that actually care about the game and not the release date are left in these forums..

 

[Mountain Man]

A few things to keep in mind:

1) According to Valve, they held off announcing the game until they were certain they could announce a specific release date and stick to it.

2) Valve has repeatedly said the release date is September 30, the most recent being Doug Lombardi at ECTS less than a month ago.

3) If Valve knows they'll have to delay the game, why keep it a secret from their fans when they're a week away from their projected release? This would certainly be an odd play for a company that prides itself on its fan relations.

Personally, I'm still anticipating a September 30 release, but I will admit, Valve's silence is a tad unsettling.

 

[MrWhite]

Originally posted by spitcodfry
I think it is more optimism than denial. Let's look at some of the reasons for suspecting a 'possible' delay:

1. Neither Vivendi nor Valve have made a statement of any kind yet about the release date other than the intial one given at E3, and again in late August at ECTS.

2. PHL moderator Kevin 'Fragmaster' Bowen continually rants in his Geiger Counter about how it'll be delayed...adding more to the community's confusion. The only evidence (if you can call it that) that he's provided thus far for why it's delayed is a supposed leaked e-mail he got from a press magazine...that stated that Valve's PR director Doug Lombardi, back in July ( before the ECTS announcement), told press magazines to push back their coverage in lieu of more time needed in development. People speculate that this was done on the business end of things for marketing purposes, and was not released to the public for such a reason.

3. Gabe's evasive and tight-lipped manner regarding all queries involving the game's release.

4. Little to no advertising for the game (magazine features/exclusives, online previews, magazine ads etc).

Feel free to add any I left out. IMO what it boils down to is speculation...I won't believe a snippet of what I read, hear, or see regarding the release unless it comes from the lion's maw; in a word, Valve. If it's delayed it's delayed...and this post was worthless because right as I'm typing this I'm sure someone is creating another 'My uncle's brother's friend who works for VU said' thread. It will never end...at least until the game comes out...and then there'll be complaints aplenty about the game on here...and speculation as to when TF2, DOD2, and CS2 will ship. My 2 cents for what it's worth.

It really is more optimism, I mean, im confident in vavle to get it out on the 30th, granted its possible they might not, and if they dont then meh... I have other things

But if I tell myself that they can do it, I dont fret about it, even though I wouldnt, I think I even partially want a delay so I can upgrade my system

 

[endorphin]

Things I'd like to add..
First off, I havent developed retail games, But I've worked on mods which have had a bunch of fans, and truth is, I never really cared shit about all the fans. And if I said It will be done by some date, it wasn't because I underestimated the work, but because I'm plain lazy, and didn't feel like workin that It was late

And a another factor..
The sponsor/company with money problem.
Delayed because of the person with money wanting to wait for it (for example if HL2 was done and ATi payed VALVe to wait for their new radeon before its released). Also things like Microsoft making HALO Xbox instead of PC. And in this situation, maybe problems with vivendi, steam etc.


Other then that, very well written, interesting and alot of things I agree with/can relate to

 

[Mountain Man]

A free mod made by amateurs is quite a bit different from a blockbuster PC title with a multimillion dollar developement budget.

 

[Ghoti]

multibillion dollar budget? Whafaburgers?

 

[Gunner]

^^ MEGA BUMP!!!

This is so funny, read it again and watch how everyone behaves lol

 

[bastard_loud]

Haha, indeed Para.