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It's entirely possible that they'll wait another few years and release The Generically Colored Box with Half-Life 2: Episode Three, Half-Life 2: Barney's Day At The Park.
Counter-Strike 2? CS:S is just getting big... it's barely started to become the dominant game in the competitive scene. Can I see anywhere where they have announced this game?
As for them releasing another Orange Box, it's not going to happen. Episode 3 will be released by itself onto consoles, plain and simple. To think that the manufacturing costs / distribution costs would outweigh their profits is absolutely ridiculous.
EDIT: Found where they announced it, but from what Gabe said it didn't seem like they were very far along with it.