China and Taiwan: Followup

[seinfeldrules]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,150296,00.html

BEIJING — China's national legislature on Monday overwhelmingly approved a law authorizing a military attack to stop Taiwan from pursuing formal independence, a day after President Hu Jintao told the 2.5 million-member People's Liberation Army to be prepared for war.

Anyone have any more information about this part of the snippet:

a day after President Hu Jintao told the 2.5 million-member People's Liberation Army to be prepared for war.

 

[staticprimer]

This could get very dicey. I wish we could help Taiwan if China did attack, but us stepping in would cause a massive war that we certainly are not ready for.. and I fear that China knows this, which is why they are being aggressive now.

 

[bliink]

but us stepping in would cause a massive war that we certainly are not ready for..

In fact, its about the only way a nuclear war could occur these days.

 

[BabyHeadCrab]

I guess my brother wont be going to taiwan for the students abroad program next year then... This is really frightening

 

[The Mullinator]

The last thing we need is China gaining more power. We also don't need another front that the U.S. military to worry about.

Things are getting uglier in the world. Sick as it may be though I kind of enjoy the excitement.

 

[kirovman]

I just wanted to quote something Calanen said in the other thread, for emphasis.

There are still people here that are applying their western minds to the taiwan solution - and its not realistic. China wants Taiwan, will take it by force if it has to. And that force is going to be applied over the next few years. And it will not start WWIII - because America and the allies will stay out of it. They will find some way too. Not even Eisenhower would go to war when 500,000 Chinese poured over the border into North Korea and attacked UN troops. That would have been a perfectly valid reason to go to war with china but the US did not.

My hit prediction is, that whatever happens to Taiwan, the US may sabre rattle but they will not go to war. Its not a good enough reason.

Whether we like it or not, China will not loosen its grip on Taiwan, and in the sense of the word democracy, most mainland Chinese support reunification with Taiwan very passionately.

They want it so badly, but they are prepared to patiently wait until they are a superpower to take it back, and a peaceful reunification would be prefered for them (good for international relations).

Although they support a peaceful reunification, they will goto war if they fear they will lose Taiwan, if they take steps towards independence.

They don't necessarily need to goto war though. They could do a naval blockade the straits (like the USA did to Cuba).

 

[seinfeldrules]

The situation with China back in the 50s is different than it is now. Towards the end, Eisenhower was threatening to nuke China if a peace agreement was not met. Truman was the one who held US troops back.

 

[kirovman]

The situation with China back in the 50s is different than it is now.

Yes, China is much stronger now.

That's why Taiwan should have declared their independence in the 1950s, rather than believing they could still take back China, and referring to themselves as the legitimate government of China until they were booted out of the UN.

Now they've got no hope of independence.

 

[Sieg]

This could get very dicey. I wish we could help Taiwan if China did attack, but us stepping in would cause a massive war that we certainly are not ready for.. and I fear that China knows this, which is why they are being aggressive now.

I'm Chinese and I know now......HA!
J/K,I just hope China doesn't start any war,let Taiwan be,and don't you Americans help,I don't want to be killed for no reason,just your Valve loving friend .

 

[Razor]

America and the UK would be powerless to stop China, seeing that America has far too many troops committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and so does the UK. The UK's military is also being cut down to a more efficient military as well, which means no large wars.

 

[The Monkey]

America and the UK would be powerless to stop China, seeing that America has far too many troops committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and so does the UK. The UK's military is also being cut down to a more efficient military as well, which means no large wars.

Last I heard. 10% of the US' military was in Iraq, and 5% in afghanistan.

 

[Razor]

Last I heard. 10% of the US' military was in Iraq, and 5% in afghanistan.

And what about all of the other places as well where America has a presence. It isn't just about troops but resources and money as well, do yu think Congress would want another war when Iraq is costing them billions? especially against a country of China's military calibre? If China was to launch a surprise attack, there is absolutely nothing at all anyone could do. The nearest American bases would be Japan and it would take a huge effort to get the American people round to supporting a war on China, when everyone is already so weary about Iraq still. That is if China was to invade in the next year or so, if they invade after the Olympics, like they are planning, from what the newspaper are saying, then America and UK and the UN might be able to provide some sort of support to Taiwan, if they choose to.

But it would be great to get the opinion of some of the Chinese members of the forum. What is public opinion like in China of a possible invasion of Taiwan? The Chinese government would try to probably spin it that Taiwan was an evil government that tried to force the poor Chinese people in Taiwan into leaving their homeland, is that what the Chinese media are saying?

 

[kmack]

LOL, if anyone thinks the U.S. has a snowball's chance in hell against China (in a war in China or Taiwan) they are absolutely ignorant. 2.5 million man army ( ) on their home turf, and we WILL NOT, and CAN NOT, use nuclear weapons in a situation like this (North Korea would launch as fast as we do). We cant even cut off trade (we are at a $15 million defecit per month), China can do whatever they want, and we can sit on our thumbs and watch.

 

[The Monkey]

China doesn't even have enough ships to launch an attack against China, but they might within a year or two.

 

[kirovman]

If you want to know the opinions of Chinese people on the Taiwan situation, the English newspaper there (government mouthpiece) has a web forum there:

www.chinadaily.com.cn

A forum specifically for the Taiwan issue:
http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/forum.shtml?fid=A46

Note the forum is moderated in the name of the Chinese government, so most posts against the government get deleted.



It would be interesting to hear what Sieg thinks, but don't put him under too much pressure to answer, these walls have ears...if you catch my drift.

I don't want you lot getting halflife2.net banned from Chinese internet...otherwise next time I go there I'll have nothing to do online.

Also a news article on the anti-secession law, straight from the horse's mouth:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-03/14/content_424752.htm

Anti-Secession Law

Answering the question on the Anti-Secession, Premier Wen told more than 700 journalists from home and abroad that the Anti-Secession law has been made to strengthen and advance ties across the Taiwan Straits, instead of being a war mobilization order.

It does not target the Taiwan compatriots, nor is it a law of war against Taiwan, he said, adding that the law states clearly it aims to promote exchanges between the people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, encourage and facilitate economic cooperation, the three "direct links", as well as exchanges in various fields including education, science and technology and culture, Wen said.

The Anti-Secession Law stipulates that the rights and interests of Taiwan business people on the mainland shall be protected, said Wen.

"The law aims at checking and opposing 'Taiwan Independence' secessionist forces," he said. "Only when the 'Taiwan independence' secessionist forces are checked and opposed, can we maintain peace in the cross-Straits region."

Peace and stability in the cross-Straits region, he said, will facilitate business people from Taiwan and abroad to invest in the mainland.

"The important speech delivered recently by Chinese President Hu Jintao on the Taiwan question has stated clearly that we will protect the legitimate rights and interests of Taiwan business people on the mainland," said the Premier. "We will do whatever benefits the Taiwan people."

He said China will develop into a regular practice as early as possible the cross-Straits direct passenger charter flights that are conducted on festivals and holidays and will take measures to boost sales of farm produce from Taiwan, particularly from southern Taiwan, to the mainland.

On the other hand, the premier said China will seek to resume and solve the export of labor forces for fishermen from the mainland to work in Taiwan.

"We're also ready to take a series of preferential policies and convenient measures," he said.

So in other words, it's a legal document to stamp firm their policy that they had in place before.

And they are being quite smart in enticing the Taiwanese people, giving their businesses protection on the Chinese mainland, and whatever is in the interests of the Taiwanese people (of course, independence wouldn't be in their interests? )

 

[KoreBolteR]

The measure was approved by a vote of 2,896 to zero

2,896 to Zero!!!! i bet all of them were forced at gunpoint to approve.

 

[Razor]

2,896 to Zero!!!! i bet all of them were forced at gunpoint to approve.

That is what i thought, i bet Blair and Bush would love a situation where they held a vote and got 0 people against it .

 

[Gray Fox]

LOL, if anyone thinks the U.S. has a snowball's chance in hell against China (in a war in China or Taiwan) they are absolutely ignorant. 2.5 million man army ( ) on their home turf, and we WILL NOT, and CAN NOT, use nuclear weapons in a situation like this (North Korea would launch as fast as we do). We cant even cut off trade (we are at a $15 million defecit per month), China can do whatever they want, and we can sit on our thumbs and watch.

Sorry but you are the one who is ignorant. Although I do agree that no one would do anything if china attacked taiwan simply because of the economics. The US could easly defeat china, with no sweat.

So what if they have 2.5 million soldiers, so what, it's all about the equipment. How do you prupose they are going to bring them to taiwan, I don't think china has that many transport ships, and ievcen if they do, the US controls the skies, and they would take em out beofre they left the harbor, and then they can have all the troops they want, it don't mean shit.

Second china needs a lot of them to keep the country secure and under the rule of the communist party, the US has maybe far less soldiers, but they are all availible to fight.

Third, china's equipment is hopelesly outdated compared to the us.

They still do not have missles that can reach the mainland US, they are going ot deply those soon, but still don't have them, saw that on cnn a couple days ago.

Even brittian could easly defend hong kong or tawian from China, hong kong maybe on the mainland but it is a small area, that can easly be defended, and tawian is separeted by the sea.

And last, if the us attacked it would not be alone, simply because it's in the nato and t can ask all teh nato nations to join it, and if you think any military can stand against nato, you are dead wrong.

And for **** sake, how much time do I need to post this.
US defense budget 590 billion, the rest of the wolrd 500 billion.

 

[Mr Stabby]

the U.S has a garunte to taiwan if, china ever tries to invade they will defend taiwan. Alos both sides do have enough nuclear weapons to wipe out earth several times each.

 

[staticprimer]

Sorry but you are the one who is ignorant. Although I do agree that no one would do anything if china attacked taiwan simply because of the economics. The US could easly defeat china, with no sweat.

So what if they have 2.5 million soldiers, so what, it's all about the equipment. How do you prupose they are going to bring them to taiwan, I don't think china has that many transport ships, and ievcen if they do, the US controls the skies, and they would take em out beofre they left the harbor, and then they can have all the troops they want, it don't mean shit.

Second china needs a lot of them to keep the country secure and under the rule of the communist party, the US has maybe far less soldiers, but they are all availible to fight.

Third, china's equipment is hopelesly outdated compared to the us.

They still do not have missles that can reach the mainland US, they are going ot deply those soon, but still don't have them, saw that on cnn a couple days ago.

Even brittian could easly defend hong kong or tawian from China, hong kong maybe on the mainland but it is a small area, that can easly be defended, and tawian is separeted by the sea.

And last, if the us attacked it would not be alone, simply because it's in the nato and t can ask all teh nato nations to join it, and if you think any military can stand against nato, you are dead wrong.

And for **** sake, how much time do I need to post this.
US defense budget 590 billion, the rest of the wolrd 500 billion.

You're looking at it from ideal conditions. Sure we might be able to beat China, if we weren't already in Iraq, and if China wasn't the second largest nuclear power. Add in the chance that North Korea could join with China, and they are more of a threat than you think. Don't dare think we can defeat China like we did Afganistan or Iraq. 2.5 million people is just their standing army, and they have the largest draft pool in the world. The power of numbers can overwhelm even the best army. Remember, Russia was able to defeat a smaller but better equipped German army in WWII, so don't think it can't happen here too.

 

[Razor]

Sorry but you are the one who is ignorant. Although I do agree that no one would do anything if china attacked taiwan simply because of the economics. The US could easly defeat china, with no sweat.

So what if they have 2.5 million soldiers, so what, it's all about the equipment. How do you prupose they are going to bring them to taiwan, I don't think china has that many transport ships, and ievcen if they do, the US controls the skies, and they would take em out beofre they left the harbor, and then they can have all the troops they want, it don't mean shit.

Second china needs a lot of them to keep the country secure and under the rule of the communist party, the US has maybe far less soldiers, but they are all availible to fight.

Third, china's equipment is hopelesly outdated compared to the us.

They still do not have missles that can reach the mainland US, they are going ot deply those soon, but still don't have them, saw that on cnn a couple days ago.

Even brittian could easly defend hong kong or tawian from China, hong kong maybe on the mainland but it is a small area, that can easly be defended, and tawian is separeted by the sea.

And last, if the us attacked it would not be alone, simply because it's in the nato and t can ask all teh nato nations to join it, and if you think any military can stand against nato, you are dead wrong.

And for **** sake, how much time do I need to post this.
US defense budget 590 billion, the rest of the wolrd 500 billion.

Britain couldn't of defended Hong Kong, no way. Hong Kong is a stones throw away from China, far, far closer then Taiwan is, and Britain has very limited resources in that area 10 years ago, whereas China has it's whole nation.

The huge advantage that China would have in any war is guarenteed public support, apart from a minimal few. America and Britain on the other hand would be a different matter, with anti war sentiments running so high after Afghanistan and Iraq. As long as China could launch a quick, surprise attack with it's navy, there would be nothing any country could do to stop them. And even though China has only short range ballastic missiles, they could still hit Japan, which is where America would launch any counter-strike from.

 

[Eg.]

LOL, if anyone thinks the U.S. has a snowball's chance in hell against China (in a war in China or Taiwan) they are absolutely ignorant. 2.5 million man army ( ) on their home turf, and we WILL NOT, and CAN NOT, use nuclear weapons in a situation like this (North Korea would launch as fast as we do). We cant even cut off trade (we are at a $15 million defecit per month), China can do whatever they want, and we can sit on our thumbs and watch.

um, korea has 2 nukes right now, and they barely work anyway. we can handle it. we got 33k nukes, i think we can use a few

 

[The Mullinator]

Britain couldn't of defended Hong Kong, no way. Hong Kong is a stones throw away from China, far, far closer then Taiwan is, and Britain has very limited resources in that area 10 years ago, whereas China has it's whole nation.

The huge advantage that China would have in any war is guarenteed public support, apart from a minimal few. America and Britain on the other hand would be a different matter, with anti war sentiments running so high after Afghanistan and Iraq. As long as China could launch a quick, surprise attack with it's navy, there would be nothing any country could do to stop them. And even though China has only short range ballastic missiles, they could still hit Japan, which is where America would launch any counter-strike from.

I wouldn't be so sure about anti-war sentiment here. Sure there would still be some but it wouldn't be nearly as great as it was with Iraq.

If an full out war were to occur and no nukes were to be used I severly doubt China could stand a chance. China could easily take Tawain if did a surprise attack but they would not be able to do much against a U.S. fleet combined with superior air power. Sure China has ballistic missiles but how accurate do you really think they are? They could hit port cities inside Japan but I doubt they would even sink a single American warship.

Keep this in mind. The U.S. military is not designed to fight guerrilla wars. It is designed to fight conventional battles. That is why it did so well agaisnt Iraq in the first Gulf war. China has a conventional military and I suspect they would fight using more conventional means. The result is I suspect that they wouldn't stand a chance.

 

[kirovman]

I wouldn't be so sure about anti-war sentiment here. Sure there would still be some but it wouldn't be nearly as great as it was with Iraq.

If an full out war were to occur and no nukes were to be used I severly doubt China could stand a chance. China could easily take Tawain if did a surprise attack but they would not be able to do much against a U.S. fleet combined with superior air power. Sure China has ballistic missiles but how accurate do you really think they are? They could hit port cities inside Japan but I doubt they would even sink a single American warship.

Keep this in mind. The U.S. military is not designed to fight guerrilla wars. It is designed to fight conventional battles. That is why it did so well agaisnt Iraq in the first Gulf war. China has a conventional military and I suspect they would fight using more conventional means. The result is I suspect that they wouldn't stand a chance.

Chinese soldiers would be really passionate for their cause, I suspect. A large number of them would probably die for China, even if it meant going out with a bang. It's the east Asian war psychology. In peace time, they are going to be quite relaxed and friendly, and hardworking, but at war, they will be brutal. You only need to look at Japan, Korea, Vietnam to see that. Mongolia in the 12th Century too, to some extent.

That's my guess/estimate anyway. And when I was working in China, a Chinese guy told me that was the East Asian psychology (but he still said Japanese are the worst - he reckoned they are genetically inclined to be brutal in war).

 

[The Mullinator]

Chinese soldiers would be really passionate for their cause, I suspect. A large number of them would probably die for China, even if it meant going out with a bang. It's the east Asian war psychology. In peace time, they are going to be quite relaxed and friendly, but at war, they are brutal. You only need to look at Japan, Korea, Vietnam to see that. Mongolia in the 12th Century too, to some extent.

Ya but I get the feeling over half of whatever troop numbers China sends in would be wiped out by the Airforce and Navy before the U.S. even started sending in major amounts of ground troops. Then there are also U.S. special forces that China would have to worry about.

 

[kirovman]

Yup, they are a bit technologically impaired in their military.

That's why they are increasing spending, but reducing troop numbers, and trying to get arms deals going in Europe, for better technology.

If they get the technology, some pirate DVD guy will probably be able to reverse engineer the Eurofighter, then they'll build millions of cheap imitations themselves. Flog them for 100 RMB each, I bet.

Also, a bit weird - A lot of the hospitals in China are military controlled. So the senior doctor of the hospital is a General. Weird eh?

Did you read the Bear and the Dragon?

About China invading Siberia for resources. Tom Clancy seems to have done a lot of homework when he wrote that.

 

[The Mullinator]

Yup, they are a bit technologically impaired in their military.

That's why they are increasing spending, but reducing troop numbers, and trying to get arms deals going in Europe, for better technology.

If they get the technology, some pirate DVD guy will probably be able to reverse engineer the Eurofighter, then they'll build millions of cheap imitations themselves. Flog them for 100 RMB each, I bet.

Also, a bit weird - A lot of the hospitals in China are military controlled. So the senior doctor of the hospital is a General. Weird eh?

Did you read the Bear and the Dragon?

About China invading Siberia for resources. Tom Clancy seems to have done a lot of homework when he wrote that.

Yes if China does end up getting the European military hardware then this could become very ugly. I just hope that because of what China is doing right now with Tawain will result in the deal being stopped.

As for the book I never heard of it before. Although I am certainly interested in it since it sounds like my kind of subject and I am also in need of a new book to read right now.

 

[kirovman]

Yes if China does end up getting the European military hardware then this could become very ugly. I just hope that because of what China is doing right now with Tawain will result in the deal being stopped.

As for the book I never heard of it before. Although I am certainly interested in it since it sounds like my kind of subject and I am also in need of a new book to read right now. I never heard about that book. Although it sounds really interesting

Get the book, you know you want to :imu: Tom Clancy - The Bear and the Dragon.

France and Germany are just too interested in the money China can give them.
I thought Schroeder was singing the praises of Japan, until their economy took a bit of a sour turn. After that he was interested in China, he quickly lost interest in Japan after that.

They don't generally care about it's welfare. I don't think they are going to be too phased by this new bill.

I think China is a legitimate business partner - I would just say give it more time with the weapons thing. But what do I know about the weapons business? My morals would say only sell weapons to your close and trusted allies, but that clearly doesn't happen in reality.

 

[Raziaar]

I guess we can all say goodbye to the highly advanced computer products that are made in Taiwan after this. Their holdings in both china and Taiwan are likely to be liquidized, and the world technology market will suffer because of this.

Made in Taiwan might be a laughing matter for some people, but the fact is, Taiwan manufactures some of the most important parts in Dell, Aer, Hewlett-Packard and I.B.M. PC's. Also in the Cisco systems, which help keep the internet running.

You can, and probably will see quite a large price increase in computer parts pricing as they are going to be needing to come out of other countries after this war.

 

[seinfeldrules]

LOL, if anyone thinks the U.S. has a snowball's chance in hell against China (in a war in China or Taiwan) they are absolutely ignorant. 2.5 million man army ( ) on their home turf, and we WILL NOT, and CAN NOT, use nuclear weapons in a situation like this (North Korea would launch as fast as we do). We cant even cut off trade (we are at a $15 million defecit per month), China can do whatever they want, and we can sit on our thumbs and watch.

Have you ever heard of superior technology? An airforce or a navy?

Get the book, you know you want to Tom Clancy - The Bear and the Dragon.

An excellent book. One of his best. I also liked Red Storm Rising.

 

[gh0st]

China doesnt have a snowballs chance in hell against America, much less Britain acting with numerous allies (even Europe couldnt stay out of this war). America can defeat any conventional army in the world, China is no exception. Thats why the big numbers dont mean shit. Our training is better, our equipment is better, we have superior discipline. China would be digging its own grave over a prolonged war.

What is discouraging is the fact that while china may only have a 2.5 million man army, they have about 300million military aged males. My worry would be whether or not we have enough bullets to physically lob at that many people.

Things would get sticky with a NK intervention there. The threat of nukes that close to the korean penninsular would.. well, suck. The US could defeat, even on two fronts (with the other being barely a front), NK and China but I mean its all about the politics. This would, however, be a world war by all definitions. I see no reason why europe and the rest of the civilized nations would stick this one out, too many interests at risk.

 

[dart321]

I also liked Red Storm Rising.

Funny you should say that. I'm in the middle of the book right now and I love it. The way he describes the situation makes war seem like one big game. Which I guess thats really all it is.

As for the whole US vs. China thing, lets not forget the F-22 Raptor. When complete, it guarantees the US air-supperiority for years to come. Unfortunantly, it's nowhere near being ready for mass production. Overall though we have a damn good chance.

 

[Eg.]

um china has nukes to, so im thinking either this would be a slow crawl over china or a quick nuke fest

 

[dart321]

um china has nukes to, so im thinking either this would be a slow crawl over china or a quick nuke fest

Well....yeah. I mean if they use nukes and we use nukes and NK uses nukes then it really dosent matter anymore. China would never do this unless they wanted to be nukes themselves... or they just pop and launch one off to see what happens. ... I would. :stare:

 

[gh0st]

RSR is a great book, I read it several years ago. It was hard, I must have only been 11 or so and its a good 1000 pages.

 

[kmack]

RSR is a great book, I read it several years ago. It was hard, I must have only been 11 or so and its a good 1000 pages.

try the Bear and the Dragon, beast of a book, but a cool look at a chinese ground war.

On topic, there is no way we could beat china on their own turf, but we never would try.

Would cost too many american lives to help free taiwan. Basically no one cares, plus we rely more and more on china ($15 million per month trade defecit to them) for trade.

Freeing Taiwan would never be allowed due to heavy american casualties.

Unless we lie and say they have nukes and that would give us reason to attack, though I dont know how much oil is in China, probably not enough to make us lie.

 

[Raziaar]

Unless we lie and say they have nukes and that would give us reason to attack, though I dont know how much oil is in China, probably not enough to make us lie.

Hey look at that. I almost got through a whole post of yours without rolling my eyes in... oh wait a minute. There it went.

 

[gh0st]

On topic, there is no way we could beat china on their own turf, but we never would try.

Why not? Of course we could. If we couldnt beat China we wouldnt be a superpower, simple as that. THEY would be the superpower, and they arent. They arent as tough as you make them out to be.

Would cost too many american lives to help free taiwan. Basically no one cares, plus we rely more and more on china ($15 million per month trade defecit to them) for trade.

Who gives a shit about 15 million dollars a month? Us cutting trade with them would hurt them way more than it would hurt us. Well it might hurt wal-mart too, but who cares; the walton family has plenty of $$.

Freeing Taiwan would never be allowed due to heavy american casualties.

If we worried about casualties there would never have been a WW2, WW1, Revolutionary war, etc. Sometimes we must suffer for the good of the world. If you cant see that, sorry.

Unless we lie and say they have nukes and that would give us reason to attack, though I dont know how much oil is in China, probably not enough to make us lie.

1) China does have nukes. No, Taiwan doesnt.
2) China has control of large amount of oil, so yeah, we could use that as a reason too, thanks. I'll forward this to President Bush.

 

[brink's]

What are you talking about? Vietnam isn't by any means a superpower and the US lost that war, yes they didn't throw everything they had at them but they got their asses kicked none the less. I don't see how you could just underestimate china so easily.

 

[seinfeldrules]

What are you talking about? Vietnam isn't by any means a superpower and the US lost that war, yes they didn't throw everything they had at them but they got their asses kicked none the less. I don't see how you could just underestimate china so easily.

And I dont see how you can underestimate America so easily. Besides, Vietnam didnt attempt to invade another country, which would rely heavily on air and sea superiority.

Would cost too many american lives to help free taiwan. Basically no one cares,

We do care though. America is one of the few nations in the world who would stick its neck out to protect places like Taiwan and South Korea. Bash America if you will, but you cannot argue that. The only people I see claiming that the US wouldnt protect Taiwan are on this board.

1) China does have nukes.

Quoted because it is the truth. This has been known for awhile.