New Conspiracy Theory

RhapSidious

RhapSidious

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My current theory is this:

Valve's been saying that ATI cards perform better in HL2 long before the benchmarking that was done a couple weeks ago. This means Nvidia must have known about their poor performance (dispite their claims) prior to the benchmark numbers going public (think July).

With that in mind, it made sense for Valve to partner with ATI for co-op adversing and bundling. Unlike most games, HL2 is seen as the first true next gen title for the pc. This game is going to push hardware sales like none other before it (even Forbes thinks so).

I think Valve finished the game, and were honestly going to be ready for a Sept 30th release.

Here is where it gets interesting. Lets imagine what would happen if HL2 were really going to ship next week. ATI sales would prosper in the coming months and Nvidia would loose a majority of it's market share.

I think that Nvidia made a deal with Vivendi to delay the release to allow for Nvidia to release something more competitive at the time of HL2 so it won't be a total loss for them.

Nvidia has probably been working on a true DX9 card for several months already, and it could possibly be ready with a few months.

If this is the case, then I believe Valve might have been figthing with VU since July over the delay issue (ie 'no comment' answers by Gabe regarding the delay).

Valve must of lost the battle (or been bribed themselves) and the rest is history.
 
That sounds like good theory, though I wouldn't think valve would take a bribe, Maybe they did it just to have more time to work on the game? if this is in fact what happened it makes me sad ;(
 
That's my theory as well. I do believe Nvidia had something to do with this.

I can almost guarantee that the only work left to be done to the game are performance improvements for hardware, mainly Nvidia hardware. Nvidia is a very powerful company and something like this is easily possible knowing their reputation.

One can only hope that the optimizations will proceed quickly and everyone will be able to enjoy HL2 soon and with decent frame rates.
 
Originally posted by draven

I can almost guarantee that the only work left to be done to the game are performance improvements for hardware, mainly Nvidia hardware. Nvidia is a very powerful company and something like this is easily possible knowing their reputation.

One can only hope that the optimizations will proceed quickly and everyone will be able to enjoy HL2 soon and with decent frame rates.
Click to expand...

Even optimized, the current FX crop isn't really suited for DX9. I think this is all about giving Nvidia more time to release their next chip, the competitor to the 9800XT (or 9900).

Valve will surely use this time to fine-tune the game the best they can for Nvidia and of course make ATI cards run even better.

I perdict the game will come out in mid to late Novemeber, right after Nvidia's new card is unveiled and is shown to be closer to ATI performance levels in HL2 benchmark.

(On the upside; With the extra optimizing and ATI working on Catalyst 3.8 at the same time, there is new hope of me playing @1600x1200 4xAA 4xAF at above 40 fps with my 9800pro 256!)
 
This was just posted in the Valve info thread:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Gabe Newell" <[email protected]>
Subject: RE: Netcode
Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2003 12:42:23 -0700

Not true.

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, September 26, 2003 12:22 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Netcode


Is it true the game was delayed because you were not done with the netcode, or there were still many bugs with it? I've heard this through the grapevine and was curious if it was true or not, thanks for your time.

- Ben
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well if this is real than it supports my theory as the even more pausible since the delay was due to a 'show stopper bug' or Steam.
 
Pleeeeeeeease stop coming up with conspiracy theories. Every possible conspiracy theory that could be discussed has been, so now we'll just have to wait. It's not like anybody's going to send you a $20 if you correctly guesssed the reason for delay.
 
Originally posted by krarg
Pleeeeeeeease stop coming up with conspiracy theories. Every possible conspiracy theory that could be discussed has been, so now we'll just have to wait. It's not like anybody's going to send you a $20 if you correctly guesssed the reason for delay.
Click to expand...

Well if you've been following the whole HL2 scene for the last 2-3 months, you'd know theres been alot of confusion on the subject. People (I being one of them,) want to know why the delay happened (and not the 'it's not done' canned response).

Of course if you've got a better idea for a thread, please create one because I could sure use something different than whats been getting posted.
 
If this theory is true, and valve "lost the battle" Maybe thats why they made such a point of Nvidia doing so horrible in the benchmark, not to make it more impressive when a card that works is released, but valves way of getting back at them? lol, cuz Nvidia got extremely defensive at those results...
 
Originally posted by RhapSidious

Well if this is real than it supports my theory as the even more pausible since the delay was due to a 'show stopper bug' or Steam.
Click to expand...

Err. Too late to edit. What I mean was the delay NOT being due to a 'show stopper bug' or Steam.
 
My hypothesis is that, It was delayed do to Vivendi's choice per not nvidia but they wanted to rake in more cash around the holidays. I base this on the fact that there was like 0% marketting for HL2 release. Gabe had said Sept 30th, and they delay within a week of release...
 
You honestly think Nvidia is going to come out with a completely new card (ie the NV40) within a few months?! Very unlikely... They got the NV36 and NV38 coming out which, although still based on the rotten NV3x core, can gain substantial speed just by brute force.

They need to pull it out of their hat. Which have happened in the techworld before :) (R300)

Second, do you think Valve CARE about Nvidia's future? They care about making it playable on current cards (the NV3x mixed mode), they dont give a rats ass about upcoming cards, as they shouldnt need any improvements (should run DX9 at acceptable speeds, hell, the NV40 win on brute force once again with its rumoured double speed of the NV3x). They have a $8M deal with ATI for a reason. That reason is not to wait for Nvidia to come with a competitive card.

To me its a stupid theory ignoring common sense. Not to be rude, just stating my mind :)

Edit: And I dont think Vivendi has much to say... Unless Valve has been commited to just let them handle it, without Valve agreement. Valve could just go to another publisher if there isnt some snag in the contract, I'm sure everyone drool over the prospect of selling HL2.
 
I'm pretty sure that Vivendi have Valve over a barrel with the boxed publishing rights for HL2. Presumably, the contract doesn't cover online distribution, which is another reason why Valve would be so eager to push Steam.

Anyway, Valve can't just up and go to another publisher, because Vivendi could have them big time for breach of contract.
 
Originally posted by dawdler
You honestly think Nvidia is going to come out with a completely new card (ie the NV40) within a few months?! Very unlikely... They got the NV36 and NV38 coming out which, although still based on the rotten NV3x core, can gain substantial speed just by brute force.

They need to pull it out of their hat. Which have happened in the techworld before :) (R300)

Second, do you think Valve CARE about Nvidia's future? They care about making it playable on current cards (the NV3x mixed mode), they dont give a rats ass about upcoming cards, as they shouldnt need any improvements (should run DX9 at acceptable speeds, hell, the NV40 win on brute force once again with its rumoured double speed of the NV3x). They have a $8M deal with ATI for a reason. That reason is not to wait for Nvidia to come with a competitive card.

To me its a stupid theory ignoring common sense. Not to be rude, just stating my mind :)
Click to expand...

Couple of points to make.

1. The average cycle for GPU's is 6 months. Nvidia released the FX 5900 back in June. With a card that's as deficent in DX9 shader performance as 5900 is, I'd think Nvidia would pool all it's resources into the next card (when the 5800 flopped they came out 5900 in 3 months!)

So if they release the card in 5 months (counting from June) then it sould be ready roughly around the time for the 'holiday' release of HL2.

2. Why should Valve care? Well seeing how the Nvidia still the MAJORITY of the GPU market, I think Valve would care about alienating a large part of their own customers. This coupled with pressure from Vivendi and/or pleading ($$$) from Nvidia, might have effected Valve's decision.

Now this theory might or might not be correct, but it's my best guess at this point. I refuse to believe that the game needs 2-3 more months of 'playtesting'.
 
I think that Nvidia would not suffer too much as far as sales if HL2 released on the 30th. Most people would probably not upgrade at all, and if they did, not more than 60% of those people would have read enough to know that they should buy an ATI radeon 9800 to get the best bang out of their game. That's my opinion anyway. The whole Nvidia conspiracy sounds plausible... but I wouldn't doubt it if they just wanted to make sure their baby was absolutely perfect on the day of its release...
 
Originally posted by RhapSidious
Couple of points to make.

1. The average cycle for GPU's is 6 months. Nvidia released the FX 5900 back in June. With a card that's as deficent in DX9 shader performance as 5900 is, I'd think Nvidia would pool all it's resources into the next card (when the 5800 flopped they came out 5900 in 3 months!)

So if they release the card in 5 months (counting from June) then it sould be ready roughly around the time for the 'holiday' release of HL2.

2. Why should Valve care? Well seeing how the Nvidia still the MAJORITY of the GPU market, I think Valve would care about alienating a large part of their own customers. This coupled with pressure from Vivendi and/or pleading ($$$) from Nvidia, might have effected Valve's decision.

Now this theory might or might not be correct, but it's my best guess at this point. I refuse to believe that the game needs 2-3 more months of 'playtesting'.
Click to expand...

1. Actually its 12 months, every 6 months is a refresh (ie the 9800, 5900 (and the rest) spawn from the 9700 and 5800). So logically we will see the NV40 around january/february, but the NV40 will probably be delayed anyway, considering the scale... Unless as I said they pull it out of their hat :)

2. That's why they spent 5 times longer on the NV3x path. They wont spend time on the magical upcoming NV40 that no one have any idea how they will look, just as they wont spend time on the R420.

Edit: And btw, considering the deal with ATI, they would probably complain and delay it further to when the R420 is out. Ever thought THAT might be the reason, not the NV40? :)
 
Originally posted by dawdler
1. Actually its 12 months, every 6 months is a refresh (ie the 9800, 5900 (and the rest) spawn from the 9700 and 5800). So logically we will see the NV40 around january/february, but the NV40 will probably be delayed anyway, considering the scale... Unless as I said they pull it out of their hat :)

2. That's why they spent 5 times longer on the NV3x path. They wont spend time on the magical upcoming NV40 that no one have any idea how they will look, just as they wont spend time on the R420.

Edit: And btw, considering the deal with ATI, they would probably complain and delay it further to when the R420 is out. Ever thought THAT might be the reason, not the NV40? :)
Click to expand...

You bring up the point with the custom path issue, although Nvidia could be just trying to make a card that is actually designed for DX9 that would use the standard DX9 path (the same one ATI runs). This would elminate the need for mixmode I assume (as long as their FPP is on point).

As far as ATI wanting a delay, I highly doubt it. I would think they'd want the game to release as soon as possible, before Nvidia counters, so they can make a killing and convert a large number of Nvidia users to ATI.

Either way it's all speculation. but good material for a discussion. We may be clutching at straws but what do you expect us to do now that its almost the 30th and no HL2. ;(
 
Has anyone even considered the fact that Valve might just want to make the greatest game of all times? That maybe the task of creating a game that's better than Half-Life (#1 best game ever, 5 years in a row in PCGamer) seems somewhat daunting? That maybe they're artists who just want their art to be nothing but absolutely perfect?

I know I would feel that way...

To me, playtesting seems very natural. The game will be reviewed before it has a chance to get patched up, so of course they want it to be free of bugs and uneven gameplay before it's released. I'm actually glad they're not releasing it prematurely, because that means it will be soooo much better when it's finally out there!

just my two cents...
 
Originally posted by Nathaniel
Has anyone even considered the fact that Valve might just want to make the greatest game of all times? That maybe the task of creating a game that's better than Half-Life (#1 best game ever, 5 years in a row in PCGamer) seems somewhat daunting? That maybe they're artists who just want their art to be nothing but absolutely perfect?

I know I would feel that way...

To me, playtesting seems very natural. The game will be reviewed before it has a chance to get patched up, so of course they want it to be free of bugs and uneven gameplay before it's released. I'm actually glad they're not releasing it prematurely, because that means it will be soooo much better when it's finally out there!

just my two cents...
Click to expand...
But they have had 5 years! That is a LONG time in game developing... Some of the really good games have been done in 2 years. Some of the best games done in a month or so (1980's version ;)). 3 years is usually the time it takes I beleive. Saying they want more time now is just ridiculus. Nothing is absolutely perfect. If they want to do it this way, it would be another DNF. And I'd really hate that... When they said 30th at/after E3 they where very sure of themselves (as they have been up until a few days ago), meaning it have to have been nearly done. It should be perfected by now.
 
Originally posted by dawdler
But they have had 5 years! That is a LONG time in game developing... Some of the really good games have been done in 2 years. Some of the best games done in a month or so (1980's version ;)). 3 years is usually the time it takes I beleive. Saying they want more time now is just ridiculus. Nothing is absolutely perfect. If they want to do it this way, it would be another DNF. And I'd really hate that... When they said 30th at/after E3 they where very sure of themselves (as they have been up until a few days ago), meaning it have to have been nearly done. It should be perfected by now.
Click to expand...

Exactly. I knew all about Valve reputation for being late on everything, but they were so sure of themselves this time (like a month ago) so the 2-3 month delay just doesn't add up.
 
Originally posted by dawdler
But they have had 5 years! That is a LONG time in game developing...
Click to expand...

You have to consider the time it took to create a brand new game-engine from scratch. Consider the time it took to create the awesome physics you'll skip school to stay home and play with, consider the incredible models and speech engine, consider the detailed maps and surroundings making Half-Life 2 look better than life itself :)

I think you'll find that 5 years isn't really too long...

Originally posted by dawdler
It should be perfected by now.
Click to expand...

Well, obviously it isn't. Anyways, 2/3 months isn't that big of a delay anyway... I've seen way worse, and in my case I welcome the delay, meaning I'll have time to raise money to buy the damned thing :p
 
Originally posted by Nathaniel
Consider the time it took to create the awesome physics you'll skip school to stay home and play with
Click to expand...
About 5 seconds to sign the deal licensing Havoc :p
 
Originally posted by RhapSidious
Couple of points to make.

1. The average cycle for GPU's is 6 months. Nvidia released the FX 5900 back in June. With a card that's as deficent in DX9 shader performance as 5900 is, I'd think Nvidia would pool all it's resources into the next card (when the 5800 flopped they came out 5900 in 3 months!)

So if they release the card in 5 months (counting from June) then it sould be ready roughly around the time for the 'holiday' release of HL2.

2. Why should Valve care? Well seeing how the Nvidia still the MAJORITY of the GPU market, I think Valve would care about alienating a large part of their own customers. This coupled with pressure from Vivendi and/or pleading ($$$) from Nvidia, might have effected Valve's decision.

Now this theory might or might not be correct, but it's my best guess at this point. I refuse to believe that the game needs 2-3 more months of 'playtesting'.
Click to expand...

1. The cycle between actual products is six months, but their basic designs are about 2 years old when they reach stores. Last minute refinements can only be made about 5 months before release at the very latest, if that, because of the production testing process. Everything else that changes after that is just troubleshooting.

2. This makes no sense in light of your first point: 'the majority of current cards are nvidia, therefore let's wait so people can buy new nvidia cards'? I think Valve's sensible position is, 'current Nvidia dx9 hardware is not really dx9 hardware: if you don't like our half-fix for dx9, just run it in dx8'.
 
I agree with Nathaniel, of course Valve wants the game to be as near-perfect as possible. They've said that it was delayed because it was not done. Even if the delay was external, its most likely Vivendi wanting to reap the holiday release time-period.
 
Originally posted by Mr Neutron

2. This makes no sense in light of your first point: 'the majority of current cards are nvidia, therefore let's wait so people can buy new nvidia cards'? I think Valve's sensible position is, 'current Nvidia dx9 hardware is not really dx9 hardware: if you don't like our half-fix for dx9, just run it in dx8'.
Click to expand...

Let me clarify my thinking. Valve should care due the reasons I gave (ie 'our fans will be pissed'). I think that that prior to the benchmark going public Valve tried desperately to get Nvidia cards to perform decently (ie custom path). After they ran out of time they decided to partner with ATI, stick to the September 30th release and let Nvidia play catch up.

This is where Vivendi's and Nvidia's influence played a part (ie litigation) and utlimately Valve caved in because it made sense businesswise. This way they get the ATI money (8 mil), make more money in a holiday season release, possibly take Nvidia's money as well, and avoid legal issues with Vivendi. As well as giving Vivendi proper time to promote the game.

Regardless, I'm speculating just like everyone else, but I do think my theory has some merit.

All I know is that they better not delay past Thanksgiving.
 
I think it's pretty obvious that something internal happened, whether it be Nvidia or Vivendi. I don't buy this "it isn't finished" crap for one second. The fans aren't stupid.

I also bet you anything the game will slip well into 2004. I am not being pessimistic, just realistic.
 
what i dont understand is why in May when they were about to make the announcement, why they didn't give a release date in the holiday season(nov 30th). did it JUST occur to them on sep 20th that more money is to be made in the holiday season? thats why im not so sure about the holiday theory for more money.
 
I just think Nvidia had a good talk with Vivendi. $$$
 
Anyway, the truth will eventually slip out in one form another. It's just a matter of time.
 
I know it was created before the section opened, but theories go there. :)

I don't think your theory is true, though. Don't see Valve doing that. Maybe I just don't want to believe that.
 
Originally posted by alco

I don't think your theory is true, though. Don't see Valve doing that. Maybe I just don't want to believe that.
Click to expand...

I know what you mean. I used to have alot of trust in Valve's word. Now I give them a 50/50 chance of doing what they say.
 
Originally posted by RhapSidious
I know what you mean. I used to have alot of trust in Valve's word. Now I give them a 50/50 chance of doing what they say.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but I don't mean as in stupid release dates. I don't see them as one of those companies that goes for the money.

Know what I mean? ;)
 
everyone's thinking about the negatives.

what if one day gabe or someone was sitting in a meeting and had a 'eureka!' moment, and everyone else at the table smacked themselves on the heads for not thinking of this before.

so now they're beavering away trying to get this great new feature/gameplay element in and get it all tested.

so when they say 'it's not finished', they really mean that.

this isn't an alternative 'conspiracy', because i don't believe there was a conspiracy. whatever pressure was exerted on valve i believe they faught it. in the end they probably said, 'feck it' and started refining and optimising the code.

who knows, maybe we'll have a couple more multiplayer maps or a few more easter eggs to find.

just don't think of it as a 'conspiracy', it's probably very hurtful to the devs.
 
ITS A LIE I TELL YOU A LIE!!! DONT BELEIVE VALVE BELEIVE YOUR MOTHERS!!! :dork:
 
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